WELCOME TO THE JOSS REPORT - WEEKLY TRADE ADVISOR

ClearTrade®
 Clearing Man Financial
The Joss Report trading recommendations and weekly trade advisor was first published in October 1998. Since that time, the Joss Report research has continued to evolve into an important source of technical insight for many traders. Our goal is to provide traders with a 'trading plan' to prepare for the trading day and week ahead.
ClearTrade's own technical analyst, Scott Joss*, is a veteran futures trader with twenty-eight years experience on and off the trading floor - as a technical analyst, pit trader, account executive handling arbitrage for Smith Barney, former member of the CBOT, non-member CTA and presently an IB. Scott prepares technical analysis in selected market groups when an opportunity presents itself and not only develops 'trading modules' on selected trading opportunities but 'feeds-forward', advising traders what to expect and how to react.
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The Joss Report Archived Weekly Trade Advisor 2005
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• TECH TALK - SUGAR - SOYBEANS - ORANGE JUICE 
• CHART WATCH - YEN    
•  CURRENT 'MONTHLY' RECOMMENDATIONS 
•  FUTURES WATCH
• COMING EVENTS AND DATA RELEASES

 

TECH TALK by Scott R. Joss (Non member C.T.A)*

MARCH SUGAR (SB6H)
Several weeks ago, I discussed the difference between outright futures trading and spread trading. I explained that the spread price differential between March Sugar and May Sugar - based on past history - could possibly widen from a price of even (0) to 33. This past week, the price differential between March and May contracts appears to be widening. March Sugar closed Friday at 11.66 and May Sugar closed at 11.59 - or a price difference of plus 7 points on the ticker board.
Last week, I discussed why Sugar might be in a short-term consolidation period - but in the long-term why prices should continue higher. I explained why a short-term consolidation might ensue based technically on the price bar between lows of 11.12 and highs of 11.91, which was posted on 10/04/05.
March Sugar last week traded in a range between 11.40 lows and 11.87 highs.
I also explained that if March Sugar could consolidate between 11.12 and 11.91, a weekly recommendation would develop for next week. This particular trading module that I developed last week did occur; March Sugar has a weekly recommendation for next week.
Every week I stress to traders that the Sugar ‘trading modules’ I develop are long-term trades that may span a year or more to achieve. Because of the possible length of the trade, traders have been advised to establish long positions in March 2006 futures and options, then rolling forward as time approaches.
My belief technically and fundamentally is that sugar prices will go much higher - not only in the short-term but in years to come - based on two very bullish ’W’ formations. These ’W’ formations have developed on the daily, weekly and monthly charts. The first was at 9.13 and the second at 11.40.
Fundamentally, my belief that Sugar prices will move higher is based on the current supply/demand equation and world policy changes to cut subsidies.
As a trader with twenty-nine years experience on and off the trading floor, I’ve learned that the only way to maximize your potential of becoming a successful trader is by developing a trading plan that ‘feeds forward’ through the use of charts. Traders are encouraged to make use of the Weekly Trade Advisor provided in the Joss Report - or to develop their own trading plan every week. Whatever tools you use, it is imperative that traders put the hard work into developing a weekly trading strategy.
To develop a weekly trading strategy, the Joss Report begins by analyzing the charts and from there, formulates trading modules that will guide trading decisions in the coming week. The purpose of trading modules is to help traders adjust to changing market conditions as they develop. Trading modules are designed to either advise traders to sit on the sidelines, limit risk with a stop, or to reverse established positions. I believe that the critical ‘adjustments’ that trading modules provide are crucial to being a successful trader by limiting potential risk.
The long positions in Sugar that I’ve ‘designed’ were originally based on daily, weekly and monthly trade signals from the July 2005 contract, then the October 2005 contract - and now, the March 2006 contract.
Remember, technically - sugar has two very powerful bullish ‘W’ formations on the daily, weekly and monthly charts.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday - indicated that the net change in open interest last week decreased -1,791, posting a total open interest of 456,345 contracts.
WHAT DOES THE MARCH SUGAR CHART LOOK LIKE?
On 10/04/05, the March Sugar chart posted highs of 11.91 and lows of 11.12.
Last week, I advised traders to watch this bar price on the daily chart because it might represent a ‘spike’ high. If it were a spike high, it could be the beginning process of a consolidation period between 11.12 and 11.91.
Sugar will need to post either multiple closes above 11.91 for a continuation pattern to higher prices or multiple closes below 11.12 to begin a correction period. Until this occurs, Sugar is trapped in consolidation between 11.12 and 11.91.
March Sugar has been in a multi-year price advance, which began from lows of 6.12 (2/13/04) to recent highs of 11.91 (10/04/05).
On 10/04/05, March Sugar filled the first of eight unfilled price gaps above the current market price between 11.72 and 11.80.
Last week March Sugar traded above 11.12 and below 11.91, indicating the beginning of consolidation.
Traders are advised next week to watch last weeks low of 11.40.
What is so important about 11.40?
The middle of the first bullish ‘W’ formation several months ago was at 9.13, which the markets tested over a seven-week period. Once the breakout and consolidation period ended, the major upward price advance to 11.91 occurred.
The middle of the second bullish ‘W’ formation is 11.40. Will it take seven-weeks to consolidate before the next major price advance?
If this were to occur, then next week would be the third week of price consolidation of the key 11.40 level.
If March Sugar over the next several weeks can maintain a foothold above this key level 11.40 on a daily, weekly and monthly closing basis, then I believe Sugar will be prepared to attack the next unfilled price gap between 13.50 and 13.61.
Can it happen sooner?
Sure… but as is the case in futures, traders are advised to prepare for the worst - a temporary price correction, and anticipate the best - a continuation of an upward price surge.
March Sugar has seven unfilled price gaps above the current market price. The next unfilled price gap is between 13.50 and 13.61.
March Sugar has five unfilled price gaps below the current market price. The most recent unfilled price gap is between 10.21 and 10.23.
For sixteen-weeks, March Sugar has closed above its 40-day moving average and 50-day moving average, which as of Friday was at 10.86 and 10.70, respectively.
March Sugar closed Friday at 11.66, which is above its 100-day moving average of 10.04 and its 200-day moving average of 9.46.
Below are the most recent trade signals Sugar has posted.
On 9/06/05, March Sugar posted a daily buy signal at 10.70.
On 9/15/05, March Sugar posted a ‘Coil’ daily buy signal at 10.83.
On 9/20/05, March Sugar posted a daily sell signal at 10.75.
On 9/23/05, March Sugar posted a daily buy signal at 10.70.
On 9/30/05, March Sugar posted a daily buy signal at 11.30.
On 10/06/05, March Sugar posted a daily sell signal at 11.31.
On 10/10/05, March Sugar posted a daily buy signal at 11.41.
On 10/13/05, March Sugar posted a daily sell signal at 11.65.
WHAT WERE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO LAST NEXT WEEK?
For last Monday, March Sugar had a daily recommendation: buy when trades 11.41 - sell when trades 11.22.
Below were possible ‘trading modules’ for futures and option traders to consider last week.
#1) If March Sugar first posted its daily buy signal at 11.41:
Aggressive futures traders were advised not to establish a position in the market but were advised to sit on the sidelines until after the UDSA report was released on Wednesday.
Option traders were advised to not establish a call position in the market but were advised to sit on the sidelines until after the UDSA report was released on Wednesday.
#2) If March Sugar (after the USDA report) posted a higher high than the previous week’s high of 11.91:
Aggressive traders were advised to re-establish a long position, placing all stops at 11.11. (Traders and their account executives were advised to discuss this suggested stop).
Option traders were advised to purchase March 1300 calls or July 1300 calls, risking 50% of their purchased price. (Traders and their account executives were advised to discuss the suggested risk).
# 3) If March Sugar posted multiple closes above 12.40 - which were contract highs in 1998:
Aggressive traders were advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing all stops below 11.40. (Traders and their account executives are advised to discuss this suggested stop).
Options traders were to purchase either March 1300 calls or July 1300 calls, risking 50% of their purchased price. (Traders and their account executives were advised to discuss the suggested risk).
Trading modules # 2 and # 3 were not activated.
# 4) If March Sugar first posted its daily sell signal at 11.22:
Aggressive futures traders were advised to not establish a short position but were advised to sit on the sidelines until after the UDSA report on Wednesday.
Option traders were advised to not establish a put option position but were advised to sit on the sidelines until after the UDSA report on Wednesday.
# 5) If March Sugar (after the USDA report) posted a lower low than the previous week’s low of 11.12:
Aggressive futures traders were advised to establish a short position, placing stops at 11.92. (Traders and their account executives were advised to discuss this suggested stop).
Option traders were advised to purchase either March 1050 puts or July 9500 puts, risking 50% of their purchased price. (Traders and their account executives were advised to discuss the suggested risk).
# 6) If after the USDA report March Sugar remained above 11.12 and below 11.91:
Aggressive traders were advised to wait for a possible weekly recommendation to develop before establishing a position.
Option traders were advised to wait for a possible weekly recommendation to develop before establishing an option position.
Trading module # 6 was activated.
WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
March Sugar has a weekly recommendation for next week: buy when trades 11.88 - sell when trades 11.39.
Below are ‘trading modules’ for futures and option traders to consider next week.
# 1) If March Sugar first posts a weekly buy signal at 11.88:
Aggressive traders are not advised to establish a long position.
Option traders are not advised to purchase a call position.
# 2) If March Sugar first posts a weekly buy signal at 11.88 and posts multiple closes above 11.91:
Aggressive traders are advised to establish a long position, placing stops at 11.39.
Option traders are advised to either purchase March 1200 or March 1300 calls, risking 50% of purchase price. (Traders and their account executives were advised to discuss the suggested risk).
# 3) If March Sugar activated trading module # 2 and posts a close above 12.31, which were 1998 highs:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing all stops below 11.91. (Traders and their account executives were asked to discuss this suggested stop).
Option traders are advised to either purchase March 1200 or 1300 calls, risking 50% of purchased price. (Traders and their account executives were advised to discuss the suggested risk).
Our objective will be the unfilled price gap between 13.50 and 13.61 from 2/19/82.
# 4) If March Sugar first posts a weekly buy signal at 11.88 and posts a higher high than 11.91 yet reverses:
Aggressive traders are advised to place resting sell stop orders at 11.39.
Option traders are advised to prepare to purchase March 1050 puts.
If trading module # 4 is activated:
Aggressive traders would establish a short position at 11.39, placing resting buy stop and reverse orders for this position at 11.88.
Option traders would purchase March 105 puts, risking 50% of purchase price, yet should prepare to exit their March 1050 puts and purchase March 1200 calls at 11.88.
# 5) If March Sugar activated trading module # 4 and posts a close below 11.12:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing all stops above 11.40. (Traders and their account executives were asked to discuss this suggested stop).
Option traders are advised to either add to their existing March 1050 put position or purchase March 1050 puts, risking 50% of market value. (Traders and their account executives were advised to discuss the suggested risk).
Our objective will be the unfilled gap between 10.21 and 10.23.
# 6) If March Sugar first posts a weekly sell signal at 11.39:
Aggressive traders are not advised to establish a short position.
Option traders are not advised to purchase a put option position.
# 7) If March Sugar posts a weekly sell signal at 11.39 and posts multiple closes below 11.12:
Aggressive traders are advised to establish a short position, placing stop and reverse orders at 11.88.
Option traders are advised to purchase March 105 puts, risking 50% of purchase price, yet should prepare to exit their March 1050 puts and purchase March 1200 calls at 11.88.
Our objective will be the unfilled gap between 10.21 and 10.23.
# 8) If March Sugar posts a close below 10.90:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing all stops above 11.40. (Traders and their account executives were asked to discuss this suggested stop).
Option traders are advised to either add to their March 1050 puts or purchase March 1050 puts, risking 50% of market value. (Traders and their account executives were advised to discuss the suggested risk).
Our objective will be the unfilled gap between 10.21 and 10.23.
# 9) If March Sugar first posts a weekly sell signal at 11.39 and posts a lower low than 11.12 - yet reverses:
Aggressive traders are advised to place resting buy stop orders at 11.88.
Option traders should prepare to purchase either March 1200 or March 1300 calls at 11.88.
If trading module # 9 is activated:
Aggressive traders would establish a long position at 11.88, placing resting buy stop and reverse orders for this position at 11.39.
Option traders would purchase either March 1200 or March 1300 calls, risking 50% of purchase price or a posting of 11.39. (Traders and their account executives were advised to discuss the suggested risk).
Our objective will be the unfilled price gap between 13.50 and 13.61 from 2/19/82.
# 10) If March Sugar next week trades above 11.39 and below 11.88:
Aggressive futures traders are advised to sit on the sidelines and wait for a possible - and probable - explosive ‘coil’ weekly recommendation to develop for the following week.
Option traders are advised to sit on the sidelines and wait for a possible - and probable - explosive ‘coil’ weekly recommendation to develop for the following week.
For weeks, I’ve listed some Sugar option facts and will continue to provide updated information:
Sugar options for a two-year ‘implied volatility’ average are ranked number 13 out of 45.
13) Sugar (SB) High 42.12% - Low 18.90% - Current 28.99%.
Sugar options for a one-year ‘implied volatility’ average are ranked number 3 out of 45.
3) Sugar (SB) High 33.54% - Low 18.90% - Current 28.99%.
Sugar options for a six-month ‘implied volatility’ average are ranked number 5 out of 45.
5) Sugar (SB) High 27.18% - Low 18.90% - Current 28.99%.
DAILY CHART MARCH SUGAR:
http://bohl.minot.com/d_Chart.cgi?SB06H
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WEEKLY CHART:
http://bohl.minot.com/w_Chart.cgi?SB

MARCH SOYBEANS (S6H)
This week I will begin developing several ‘trading modules’ for March Soybeans because of an ‘intra-week’ buy signal and a ‘coil daily recommendation’ for Monday.
Last week I explained to inexperienced traders that they need to develop a trading plan by ‘feeding forward,’ not only where a product may eventually go - but also the financial risks involved in getting there.
I asked a simple question: What if fundamentals change down the road.
I explained that I have been in the business too many years to think this cannot happen.
In last Sunday’s Weekly Trade Advisor, my prime example was Soybeans. Every time Soybeans approach $10.00 a bushel, the ‘news’ always reports that there are not enough beans…. what will we do? Two-months later, prices have fallen dramatically.
When prices are at their lowest point, the analysts report ‘fundamental news’ indicating record crops. What will we do with all of these beans?
Somehow, these ‘extra’ beans get lost - and prices go up dramatically.
My point last week was supply and demand
- High prices drive demand down - and low prices drive demand up.
- High supply drives prices lower - and low supply drives prices higher.
Guess what? Last week the news broadcasted on national television and in print was: ‘USDA report announces RECORD Soybean and Corn crops.’ What will we do?
I know what I did; I advised traders to either purchase March Soybeans or March 620 call options. And how did these products end the week? UP.
Fundamentals indicate lower prices and technical analysis point to higher prices.
Are both right?
Yes. Soybean prices dropped dramatically over the last fifteen weeks because of the fundamental news that was released last week, (USDA crop report and supply /demand report).
Technically, prices hit a low point.
In the July 31st Joss Report, traders were advised to establish short November Soybean positions at 669.75 and 665.75.
In the September 25th Weekly Trade Advisor, traders who had established short positions were advised to exit gracefully from the weeks of progressive daily, weekly and monthly sell signals that had been posted. The main caveat was to have liquidated all positions by September 28th.
Before the weekly and monthly sell signals posted in July, I distinctly remember taking a leisurely evening drive and thinking - ‘what a beautiful full moon.’ This prompted me to turn to my fiancée and say ‘soybeans must be reaching a top.’ This wasn’t exactly what my partner wanted to hear.
Last night, I was once again taking a leisurely drive home following a romantic dinner and my partner turned to me and said “what a beautiful moon…. it must be a full moon.” I responded as I did that evening in July: “soybeans must be reaching a bottom.” Not what my partner wanted to hear. When will they learn?
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday - indicated that the net change in open interest last week increased 20,954, posting a total open interest of 288,160 contracts.
WHAT DOES THE SOYBEAN CHART LOOK LIKE?
March Soybeans have been in a fifteen-week price decline from highs of 760.00 (6/24/05) to lows of 573.00 (9/27/05) and lows of 574.00 (10/10/05).
Soybeans appear to have posted a short-term bottom and need to maintain a foothold above 593.00.
Beans may have posted a ‘spread double’ bottom by posting lows of 573.00 and 574.00, respectively.
On 10/12/05, March Soybeans posted an intra-week buy signal at 604.50.
Our short-term objective will be 636.00 based on the weekly buy signal.
For Monday, March Soybeans have a daily recommendation: buy when trades 612.25 - sell when trades 606.25.
This is not just an ordinary daily recommendation but also a ‘coil’ daily recommendation. ‘Coils’ have a tendency to lash out violently in the direction of its trend. These ‘coil’ direction days tend to remain intact for at least three days.
March Soybeans have five unfilled price gaps above the current market price. The first unfilled price gap is between 644.25 and 650.00. The second unfilled price gap is between 666.50 and 671.00.
March Soybeans have six unfilled price gaps below the current market price. The most recent unfilled price gap is between 585.50 and 596.00.
March Soybean’s 40-day moving average and 50-day moving average as of Friday were at 601.25 and 610.75, respectively.
March Soybeans closed Friday at 608.00, which is below its 100-day moving average of 653.25 and its 200-day moving average of 624.00.
WHAT SHOULD TRADER DO NEXT WEEK?
For Monday, March Soybeans have a daily recommendation: buy when trades 612.25 - sell when trades 606.25.
Futures traders who established a long position either before the USDA crop report or at the ‘intra-week’ buy signal are advised to leave their stops below 573.00.
Option trader’s who purchased March 620 calls before the USDA crop report or at the ‘intra-week’ buy signal are advised to risk 70% of purchase price. (Traders and their account executives were advised to discuss the suggested risk).
Below are ‘trading modules’ for futures and option traders to consider next week.
# 1) If March Soybeans first post a daily buy signal at 612.25:
Aggressive futures traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing stops for this position only below 585.50. (Traders and their account executives were asked to discuss this suggested stop).
Option traders are advised to purchase either March 620 calls or March 640 calls, risking 70% of purchase price.
# 2) If March Soybeans post multiple closes above 624.00:
Aggressive futures traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing all stops below 596.00.
Options traders are advised to purchase March 640 calls, risking 70% of purchase price.
Our short-term objective will be 636.00 based on the weekly buy signal.
# 3) If March Soybeans post a multiple closes above last month’s high of 632.00:
Aggressive futures traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing all stops below 614.00.
Options traders are advised to purchase March 650 calls, risking 70% of purchase price.
Our next objective will be a challenge of the 100-day moving average at 653.25.
# 4) If March Soybeans first post a daily sell signal at 606.25:
Aggressive futures traders are advised to not establish a short position. However, aggressive traders should place resting buy stop orders at 612.25.
Options traders are advised not to purchase an option position. However, option traders should be prepared to purchase March 620 calls if 612.50 were posted.
# 5) If March Soybeans first post a daily sell signal yet reverses, posting a daily buy signal at 612.25:
Aggressive futures traders will have an established long position from their resting buy stop orders at the daily buy signal of 612.25. If trading module # 5 is activated, aggressive traders are advised to place stops below 596.00.
Options traders are to purchase March 620 calls if the daily buy signal at 612.50 was posted. If trading module # 5 is activated, option traders are advised to risk 70% of purchase price.
# 6) If March Soybeans first post the daily sell signal at 606.25:
Aggressive futures traders are advised to wait for a possible monthly recommendation to develop in March Soybeans for November before establishing a position.
Options traders are advised to wait for a possible monthly recommendation to develop in March Soybeans for November before establishing an option position.
I have listed some Soybean option facts and will continue to provide updated information:
Soybean options for a two-year ‘implied volatility’ average are ranked number 37 out of 45.
37) Soybean (s) High 45.45% - Low 19.62% - Current 22.49%
Soybean options for a one-year ‘implied volatility’ average are ranked number 39 out of 45.
39) Soybean (s) High 45.45% - Low 19.62% - Current 22.49%
Soybean options for a six-month ‘implied volatility’ average are ranked number 42 out of 45.
42) Soybean (s) High 45.45% - Low 21.06% - Current 22.49%
Options are cheap.
DAILY CHART:
http://www.bohl.minot.com/d_Chart.cgi?S06H
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WEEKLY CHART:
http://www.bohl.minot.com/w_Chart.cgi?S

JANUARY ORANGE JUICE (OJ6F)
This week I will begin developing several ‘trading modules’ for January Orange Juice because of a ‘Coil’ daily, weekly and a monthly recommendation for November Orange Juice.
Why November Orange Juice for the monthly recommendation?
Because the January Orange Juice chart is too sketchy to view the monthly recommendation.
Last week was the USDA crop report and supply /demand report for Orange Juice. Below is a brief summary of the outcome.
USDA: Citrus crop to rebound slightly, but expect higher prices
Florida’s citrus crop has rebounded somewhat from last year's hurricane-ravaged season, with both orange and grapefruit production expected to make significant gains, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's initial forecast.
However, neither crop is back to where it was before the hurricanes, and consumers could feel the pinch, especially with higher orange juice prices, industry officials say.
The government is forecasting the orange crop will come in at 190 million boxes this year, or 27 percent more than last season's total of 149.6 million boxes. Pre-hurricane estimates on last season's crop were around 230 million boxes.
The 190 million-box crop is also lower than early industry estimates of around 207 million boxes.
Orange Juice is having some major problems in Pinellas County because groves are being sold because property values are skyrocketing.
In addition, many Orange groves in the South Eastern part of Florida are experiencing various debilitating diseases.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday - indicated that the net change in open interest last week increased 2,519, posting a total open interest of 27,553 contracts.
WHAT DOES THE ORANGE JUICE CHART LOOK LIKE?
January Orange Juice has been in a seven-week price advance from lows of 90.80 (8/23/05) to recent highs of 106.50 (10/04/05).
On 10/03/05, November Orange Juice posted a monthly buy signal at 102.45. If I equate this to January Juice, it would be approx. at 104.80.
For next week, January Orange juice has a weekly recommendation: buy when trades 106.45 - sell when trades 102.55.
For Monday, January Orange Juice has a ‘Coil’ daily recommendation: buy when trades 105.85 - sell when trades 104.00.
This is not just an ordinary daily recommendation but also a ‘coil’ daily recommendation. ‘Coils’ have a tendency to lash out violently in the direction of its trend. These ‘coil’ direction days tend to remain intact for at least three days.
Orange Juice appears to have developed a bullish ‘ascending’ right triangle.
The upward trendline began from lows of 92.80 (9/09/05) through lows of 102.60 (10/11/05) and lows of 103.00 (10/12/05).
The horizontal trendline runs across highs of 106.40, 106.50, 106.40 and 106.35.
Our short-term objective will be 110.65 based on the right triangle.
The major reason January Orange Juice is having problems advancing at the 106.00 level is because these were the highs for 2002 on the long-term charts.
January Orange Juice has one unfilled price gap above the current market price between 106.05 and 108.60. Contract highs for January Orange Juice are at 109.75.
January Orange Juice has three unfilled price gaps below the current market price. The most recent unfilled price gap is between 101.60 and 101.30.
January Orange Juice has closed five-weeks above its 40-day moving average and 50-day moving average - which as of Friday was at 99.00 and 98.70, respectively.
January Orange Juice closed Friday at 104.65, which is above its 100-day moving average of 100.05 and its 200-day moving average of 97.65.
WHAT SHOULD TRADERS DO NEXT WEEK?
For Monday, January Orange Juice has a daily recommendation: buy when trades 105.85 - sell when trades 104.00.
For next week, January Orange Juice has a weekly recommendation: buy when trades 106.45 - sell when trades 102.55.
Below are ‘trading modules’ for futures and option traders to consider next week.
# 1) If January Orange Juice first post a daily buy signal at 105.85:
Aggressive futures traders are advised to wait for the weekly buy signal at 106.45 before establishing a long position, placing stops at 102.45. (Traders and their account executives were asked to discuss this suggested stop).
Option traders are advised to wait for the weekly buy signal at 106.45 before purchasing January 100.00 calls, risking 70% of purchase price.
# 2) If January Orange Juice posts multiple closes above 106.50:
Aggressive futures traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing all stops at 102.55.
Options traders are advised to purchase January 100.00 calls, risking 70% of purchase price.
Our short-term objective will be 110.65 based on the weekly buy signal.
# 3) If Orange Juice posts multiple closes above contract highs of 109.75:
Aggressive futures traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing all stops below 104.00.
Options traders are advised to purchase January 110.00 calls, risking 70% of purchase price.
Our next objective will be a challenge of 111.25.
# 4) If Orange Juice posts multiple closes above 111.25:
Aggressive futures traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing all stops below 105.85.
Options traders are advised to purchase January 110.00 calls, risking 70% of purchase price.
Our next objective will be a challenge of 114.20.
# 4) If Orange Juice first posts a daily sell signal at 104.00:
Aggressive futures traders are advised to not establish a short position. However, aggressive traders should place resting buy stop orders at 106.45.
Options traders are advised not to purchase an option position. However, option traders should be prepared to purchase January 100.00 calls if 106.45 were posted.
# 5) If Orange Juice first posts a daily sell signal at 104.00 yet reverses, posting a weekly buy signal at 106.45:
Aggressive futures traders will have an established long position from their resting buy stop orders at the weekly buy signal of 106.45. If trading module # 5 is activated, aggressive traders should place stops at 102.55.
Options traders are to purchase January 100.00 calls if the weekly buy signal at 106.45 was posted. If trading module # 5 is activated, option traders are advised to risk 70% of purchase price.
# 6) If Orange Juice first posts a daily sell signal at 104.00 and a weekly sell signal at 102.55:
Aggressive futures traders are advised not to establish a short position. However, aggressive traders should place resting buy stop orders at 106.45.
Options traders are advised not to purchase an option position. However, option traders should be prepared to purchase January 100.00 calls if 106.45 were posted.
# 7) If Orange Juice first posts a daily sell signal at 104.00 and a weekly sell signal at 102.55 yet reverses, posting a weekly buy signal at 106.45:
Aggressive futures traders will have an established long position from their resting buy stop orders at the weekly buy signal of 106.45. If trading module # 7 is activated, aggressive traders should place stops at 102.55.
Options traders are advised to purchase January 100.00 calls if the weekly buy signal at 106.45 is posted. If trading module # 7 is activated, option traders are advised to risk 70% of purchase price.
# 8) If January Orange Juice first posts the daily sell signal at 104.00 and a weekly sell signal at 102.55:
Aggressive futures are advised to wait for another trading opportunity before establishing a position.
Options traders are advised to wait for another trading opportunity before establishing an option position.
I have listed some Orange Juice option facts and will continue to provide updated information:
Orange Juice options for a two-year ‘implied volatility’ average are ranked number 30 out of 45.
30) Orange Juice (Jo) High 55.83% - Low 21.50% - Current 26.75%
Orange Juice options for a one-year ‘implied volatility’ average are ranked number 31 out of 45.
31) Orange Juice (Jo) High 43.93% - Low 21.50% - Current 26.75%
Orange Juice options for a six-month ‘implied volatility’ average are ranked number 28 out of 45.
28) Orange Juice (Jo) High 32.62% - Low 21.50% - Current 26.75%
Options are cheap.
DAILY CHART:
http://www.bohl.minot.com/d_Chart.cgi?OJ06F
------------
WEEKLY CHART:
http://www.bohl.minot.com/w_Chart.cgi?OJ

 CHART WATCH by Scott R. Joss (Non member C.T.A)*

Readers and clients call during the week and ask: What are you watching?

Watching can mean that the markets are developing a 'recommendation' or a chart pattern that has not yet fully developed - or may never develop.

During the course of the week or month it is not uncommon to find an `intra-day, intra-week or intra-month' recommendation that was previously not revealed when this newsletter was written.

Products that currently fit into this 'watch' category are listed below and should be 'watched.'

DECEMBER JAPANESE YEN (JY5Z)
Last week I added the Yen to ‘Chart Watch’ because of a potential ‘intra-yearly’ sell signal that may occur in the future.
If the Yen can close at or below .8710 by December 30th, this would constitute an ‘intra-year’ sell signal.
If this were to occur, traders will be advised in the January 3rd Joss Report.
I will continue to update traders if a weekly and/or monthly sell signal develops that might push the Yen to its ‘intra-yearly’ sell signal before December 30th at .8710.
DAILY CHART:
http://www.bohl.minot.com/d_Chart.cgi?JY05Z
------------
WEEKLY CHART:
http://www.bohl.minot.com/w_Chart.cgi?JY

CURRENT 'MONTHLY' RECOMMENDATIONS
FOR OCTOBER:

- DECEMBER S&P 500 (SP5Z)
- DECEMBER EMINI S&P (ES5Z)
- DECEMBER CRUDE OIL (CL5Z)
- NOVEMBER ORANGE JUICE (OJ5X)
 

FUTURE WATCH  

Future watch will list developing 'monthly' recommendations to watch in October for November. By listing these products, traders can `feed-forward' with anticipation and focus - centering on products that will provide direction and hopefully, opportunity.
Traders should begin studying the 'daily', 'weekly' and 'monthly' charts for the products listed below. Don't forget between now and the end of the month, some or all of these products may be de-listed.
'Monthly' recommendations will be revealed on the close of business October 31 and sent via email for November.

- SOYBEANS
- WHEAT
- HEATING OIL
- COCOA
- COFFEE
- CRB
- CANADIAN DOLLAR

COPYRIGHT WARNING AND NOTICE: It
is a violation of federal copyright law to
reproduce all or any part of this publication or
its contents by email, facsimile, xerography,
scanning or any other means, without
permission.
Copyright 2005, Joss Report - S.R. Joss Inc and ClearTrade®Inc. All rights reserved.
If you are receiving this report from any other source than S.R. Joss Inc or ClearTrade® Inc. please contact us at 800- 493-4444.  

NOTE:

If you do not completely understand this information, you are advised to take NO action until speaking with your Account Executive.

ClearTrade®, Inc. may be reached at 800-493-4444

* The Joss Report trade recommendations and weekly trade advisor is prepared by Scott Joss, Non- Member C.T.A.

Scott Joss is a 'non member' CTA and is providing the Joss Report weekly trading advisor and trade recommendations to ClearTrade®, Inc. clients. Scott Joss 'is a principal' of ClearTrade, Inc. and 'is a registered IB member' with the NFA.

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DISCLAIMER:

* COMING EVENTS AND DATA RELEASES:

Calendar provided by Briefing.com, Inc. Data is provided for informational purposes only, and is not intended for trading purposes. Neither ClearTrade, Inc. nor any of its data or content providers (such as Reuters, CSI, and Briefing.com) shall be liable for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.

Market recommendations are strictly the opinion of the writer and are intended solely for informative purposes and are not to be construed, under any circumstances, by implication or otherwise, as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or trade in any commodities or securities herein named. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve substantial risk. In no event should the content of a market letter be construed as a promise that you will profit or that losses can! or will be limited in any manner whatsoever.

Unless otherwise indicated, the links presented in this publication/newsletter are in no way affiliated with ClearTrade, Inc. Likewise, sites linked through ClearTrade's Joss Report weekly trade advisor newsletter are not necessarily connected with ClearTrade, nor do any such links imply an endorsement by either party.

ClearTrade®, Inc. does not necessarily promote or endorse the services or publications described herein. Unless otherwise indicated, ClearTrade Inc. has had no role in the production or review of these products or services and makes no warranty, either expressed or implied, as to their contents, accuracy or performance.
 
DISCLAIMER: * COMING EVENTS AND DATA RELEASES: Calendar provided by Briefing.com, Inc. Data is provided for informational purposes only, and is not intended for trading purposes. Neither ClearTrade, Inc. nor any of its data or content providers (such as Reuters, CSI, and Briefing.com) shall be liable for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. Market recommendations are strictly the opinion of the writer and are intended solely for informative purposes and are not to be construed, under any circumstances, by implication or otherwise, as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or trade in any commodities or securities herein named. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve substantial risk. In no event should the content of a market letter be construed as a promise that you will profit or that losses can or w! ill be limited in any manner whatsoever. Unless otherwise indicated, the links presented in this publication/newsletter are in no way affiliated with ClearTrade, Inc. Likewise, sites linked through ClearTrade's Joss Report weekly trade advisor newsletter are not necessarily connected with ClearTrade, nor do any such links imply an endorsement by either party. ClearTrade®, Inc. does not necessarily promote or endorse the services or publications described herein. Unless otherwise indicated, ClearTrade Inc. has had no role in the production or review of these products or services and makes no warranty, either expressed or implied, as to their contents, accuracy or performance. Past results are no indication of future performance. Information provided in this newsletter is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future cond! itions are attempted.

REPRODUCTION OR REBROADCAST OF ANY PORTION OF THIS INFORMATION IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED WITHOUT THE WRITTEN PERMISSION OF S.R. JOSS INC./CLEARTRADE®, INC.

The contents of this newsletter are copyright 1997-2005, Scott R. Joss/S.R. Joss Inc./ClearTrade®, Inc. *TM. All Rights Reserved.

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