WELCOME TO THE JOSS REPORT - WEEKLY TRADE ADVISOR

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 Clearing Man Financial
The Joss Report trading recommendations and weekly trade advisor was first published in October 1998. Since that time, the Joss Report research has continued to evolve into an important source of technical insight for many traders. Our goal is to provide traders with a 'trading plan' to prepare for the trading day and week ahead.
ClearTrade's own technical analyst, Scott Joss*, is a veteran futures trader with twenty-eight years experience on and off the trading floor - as a technical analyst, pit trader, account executive handling arbitrage for Smith Barney, former member of the CBOT, non-member CTA and presently an IB. Scott prepares technical analysis in selected market groups when an opportunity presents itself and not only develops 'trading modules' on selected trading opportunities but 'feeds-forward', advising traders what to expect and how to react.
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The Joss Report Archived Weekly Trade Advisor 2005
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• TECH TALK - COCOA - ORANGE JUICE - U.S. DOLLAR - YEN - BONDS - NOTES - CRUDE OIL - CANADIAN
• CHART WATCH - SUGAR - SOYBEANS   
•  CURRENT 'MONTHLY' RECOMMENDATIONS 
•  FUTURES WATCH
• COMING EVENTS AND DATA RELEASES

 

TECH TALK by Scott R. Joss (Non member C.T.A)* 

MARCH COCOA (CC6H)
Last week March Cocoa was placed in ‘Chart Watch’ because of a possible monthly recommendation developing for November -
This was not revealed until the close of business October 31st.
This week March Cocoa will be added to 'Tech Talk' because of a monthly recommendation for November.
Because of past colonial ties to Britain, Cocoa is based on the British pound. Gold Coast (Ghana) was a British colony on the Gulf of Guinea in West Africa. The Gold Coast was formed in 1821 when the British government took over privately held lands along the coast.
Ghana is the world's-second biggest cocoa producer after neighboring Ivory Coast.
Much of the world's cocoa comes from West Africa, but as is the situation in many African commodity exporters, most of the value is added in Europe and America when it is turned into cocoa butter, cake and liquor - the ingredients for chocolate and confectionery.
Currently, only about 20% of Ghana's cocoa beans are processed locally by companies and 90% are processed in Europe (Germany) and the U.S.
Traders will read in the U.S. Dollar article listed below, I explained that the major cross-currencies may be hurt by the rise in the U.S. Dollar.
Any rise in the U.S. Dollar should put added pressure on Cocoa.
In addition, it is reported that twice as much Cocoa has been shipped to date this year than at the same point last year.   
The New York Board of Trade has added the Port of Albany, N.Y., to its delivery points for cocoa futures.
The designation will begin with May 2006 cocoa shipments.
The Board of Trade also added the port of Baltimore as a cocoa futures designation.
Currently, the ports of New York-New Jersey, the Delaware River Port District and the Port of Hampton Roads are cocoa futures delivery points.
Port of Albany officials said the designation creates the potential for more cocoa bean shipments coming through the port on the Hudson River. In April, the port handled its first cocoa shipment in four years and its largest ever: 12,000 tons from a Russian freighter.
Some of those beans remain in a Port of Albany warehouse.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated that the net change in open interest last week increased by 9,908, posting a total open interest of 146,129 contracts.
WHAT DOES THE MARCH COCOA CHART LOOK LIKE?
March Cocoa has been in a twenty-nine week price decline from highs of 1893 (3/18/05) to lows of 1367 (9/26/05).
Currently, March Cocoa has been trading in a five-week trading range from lows of 1367 to recent highs of 1479 (9/30/05).
March Cocoa has two bearish ‘island reversal’ tops.
The first 'island reversal' top was posted between 6/15/05 to 6/25/06.
The most recent 'island reversal top' was posted between 9/02/05 and 9/09/05.
Each of the highs of these bearish tops was posted just above the descending 200-day moving average.
March Cocoa has a monthly recommendation for November.
March Cocoa is in danger of posting an ‘intra-year’ sell signal at 1298.
March Cocoa has five unfilled price gaps above the current market price. The most recent unfilled price gap is between 1395 and
1407. The second unfilled price gap is between 1440 and 1447. The third unfilled price gap is between 1540 and 1550.
March Cocoa has no unfilled price gaps below the current market price.  
March Cocoa's 40-day moving average and 50-day moving average as of Friday were at 1443 and 1444, respectively.
March Cocoa closed Friday at 1422, which is below its 100-day moving average of 1476 and its 200-day moving average of 1546.
This product is extremely volatile, traders should have an equity to risk ratio of no more than 10% to trade this product.
The proposed monthly risk to trade this product is $830.
That means traders should have an account size of $9,000 per contract to trade this product.
If you do not fit this profile, I suggest that traders consult their account executive and consider an options strategy.
WHAT WERE TRADERS ADVISED LAST WEEK?
March Cocoa has a monthly recommendation for November: buy when trades 1468 - sell when trades 1385.
On Friday, March Cocoa posted a monthly sell signal at 1385.
Aggressive traders were advised to establish a short position at 1385, placing stops at 1468.
Options traders were advised to purchase March 1350 puts, risking 70% of purchase price.
WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
March Cocoa has a monthly recommendation for November: buy when trades 1468 - sell when trades 1385.
Aggressive traders who established a short position at 1385 are advised to leave stops at 1468.
Options traders who purchased March 1350 puts are advised to continue to risk 70% of purchase price.
Below are possible ‘trading modules’ for futures traders to consider next week:
# 1) If March Cocoa first posts a price advance to the monthly sell signal at 1385:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their established short position or establish a short position, placing stops at 1468.
Option traders are advised to purchase March 1350 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**.
# 2) If March Cocoa first posts multiple closes below last week's low of 1375:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing stops at 1468.
Option traders are advised to purchase March 1350 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**.
# 3) If March Cocoa posts multiple closes below recent contract lows of 1367:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing stops at 1468.
Option traders are advised to purchase March 1350 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**.
# 4) If March Cocoa posts multiple closes below 1320:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing stops above 1417.
Option traders are advised to purchase March 1350 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**.
Our objective will be an all out assault on the 'intra-year' sell signal at 1298.
# 5) If March Cocoa posts multiple closes below the 'intra-year' sell signal of 1298:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops above 1386.
Option traders are advised to purchase March 1300 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**.
Our objective will be a challenge of 2002 lows at 1260.
# 6) If March Cocoa posts multiple closes below 1235:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops above 1376.
Option traders are advised to purchase March 1300 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**.
Our long-term objective will be 1129.
I have listed some Cocoa option facts:
Cocoa options for a two-year ‘implied volatility’ average are ranked number 31 out of 45.
31) Cocoa (CC) High 45.90% - Low 26.49% - Current 28.70%.
Cocoa options for a one-year ‘implied volatility’ average are ranked number 39 out of 45.
39) Cocoa (CC) High 45.90% - Low 26.49% - 28.70%.
Cocoa options for a six-month ‘implied volatility’ average are ranked number 29 out of 45.
28) Cocoa (CC) High 34.30% - Low 26.49% - 28.70%.
Options are very cheap.
DAILY CHART:
http://www.bohl.minot.com/d_Chart.cgi?CC06H
------------
WEEKLY CHART:
http://www.bohl.minot.com/w_Chart.cgi?CC
* (Futures traders and their account executives are advised to discuss this suggested stop).
** (Option traders and their account executives are advised to discuss the suggested risk).
----------------------------------------------------
JANUARY ORANGE JUICE (OJ6F)
Several weeks ago I began developing ‘trading modules’ for January Orange Juice because of a ‘Coil’ daily recommendation, weekly Recommendation for January Juice, and a monthly recommendation for November Orange Juice.
Reports of damaged areas are beginning to filter out of Florida’s south central portion of the state - yet the true damage to citrus trees and crops have yet to be determined.
A special citrus survey will begin next week to try to make the next forecast report due out in the USDA's December 9th report more accurate for South Florida's citrus belt.
Until the USDA reports confirm or deny the anticipated destruction of the citrus due to hurricane Wilma, January Orange Juice prices should continue higher. 
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated that the net change in open interest last week increased by 1,288, posting a total open interest of 32,344 contracts.
WHAT DOES THE JANUARY ORANGE JUICE CHART LOOK LIKE?
January Orange Juice has been in an eight-week price advance from lows of 90.80 (8/23/05) to recent highs of 123.35 (11/04/05).
On 10/03/05, November Orange Juice posted a monthly buy signal at 102.45. If I equate this to January Juice, it would be approx. at 104.80.
On 10/17/05, January Orange Juice posted a ‘Coil’ daily buy signal at 105.85.
On 10/17/05, January Orange juice posted a weekly buy signal at 106.45.
On 10/24/05, January Orange juice posted a daily buy signal at 111.80.
On 10/27/05, January Orange juice posted a daily buy signal at 117.55.
Orange Juice had developed a bullish ‘ascending’ right triangle, which was breeched at 106.35.
January Orange Juice has no unfilled price gaps above the current market price.
January Orange Juice has three unfilled price gaps below the current market price. The most recent unfilled price gap is between 101.60 and 101.30.
January Orange Juice has closed seven-weeks above its 40-day moving average and 50-day moving average - which as of Friday was at 107.30 and 104.70, respectively.
January Orange Juice closed Friday at 123.30, which is above its 100-day moving average of 102.80 and its 200-day moving average of 99.65.
WHAT WERE TRADERS ADVISED LAST WEEK?
Aggressive traders who have established long positions below 115.50 were advised to move all stops below 109.75*.
Aggressive traders who either added to their existing long position or established long positions above 115.50 were advised to place stops below 111.30*.
Option traders who purchased January 100.00 calls were advised to risk 50% of market value**.
Option traders who purchased January 110.00 calls were advised to risk 50% of market value**.
Below are ‘trading modules’ that futures and option traders were to consider last week.
# 1) If January Orange Juice first posted a higher high than the previous week’s high of 119.40:
Aggressive futures traders were advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position on a price pullback to support at 117.00, placing stops below 111.30*.
Option traders were advised to purchase January 120.00 calls on a price pullback to 117.00, risking 70% of purchase price**.
# 2) If January Orange Juice posted multiple closes above 119.40:
Aggressive futures traders were advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing all stops below 111.30*.
Options traders were advised to purchase January 120.00 calls, risking 70% of purchase price**.
Trading modules # 1 and # 2 were activated last week.
Our objective of 122.25 was met on Friday.
WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
Aggressive traders who have established long positions below 115.50 are advised to move all stops below 113.30*.
Aggressive traders who either added to their existing long position or established long positions above 115.50 are advised to place stops below 113.30*.
Aggressive traders who either added to their existing long position or established long positions on a pullback to 117.00 are advised to place stops below 113.30*.
Option traders who either purchased January 100.00, 110.00 or 120.00 calls are advised to risk 50% of market value**.
Aggressive futures traders and option traders who exited any or all of their established long positions on Friday at 122.25 may want to consider the trading modules proposed below.
Below are ‘trading modules’ for futures and option traders to consider next week:
# 1) If January Orange Juice first posts a higher high than last week’s high of 123.35:
Aggressive futures traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position on a price pullback to support at 119.40, placing stops below 113.30*.
Option traders are advised to purchase January 120.00 calls on a price pullback to 119.40, risking 70% of purchase price**.
# 2) If January Orange Juice first pulls back in price to support at 119.40:
Aggressive futures traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing all stops below 113.30*.
Options traders are advised to purchase January 120.00 calls, risking 70% of purchase price**.
Our next objective will be 130.25.
# 3) If January Orange Juice posts multiple closes above 124.00:
Aggressive futures traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing all stops below 113.30*.
Options traders are advised to purchase January 120.00 calls, risking 70% of purchase price**.
Our objective will be 130.25.
Below are possible reversal ‘trading modules’ to consider next week:
# 4) If January Orange Juice first posts a lower low than last week’s low of 116.60 yet reverses, posting a higher high than last week’s high of 123.40:
Aggressive futures traders are advised to place resting buy stop orders at 123.40.
If the resting buy stop order is activated, aggressive traders will have either added to their existing long position or established a long position.
If 123.40 is posted, aggressive traders are advised to place stops below 113.30*.
Options traders are advised to prepare to purchase 120.00 calls if 123.40 is posted.
If 123.40 is posted, option traders are advised to purchase 120.00 calls, risking 50% of purchase price**.
Our objective will be 130.25.
# 5) If January Orange Juice first posts a higher high than last week’s high of 123.35 yet reverses, posting multiple closes below 111.30:
Aggressive futures traders are advised to sit on the sidelines and wait for another trading opportunity.
Options traders are advised to sit on the sidelines and wait for another trading opportunity.
I have listed some Orange Juice option facts:
Orange Juice options for a two-year ‘implied volatility’ average are ranked number 16 out of 45.
16) Orange Juice (OJ) High 55.83% - Low 21.50% - Current 30.07%.
Orange Juice options for a one-year ‘implied volatility’ average are ranked number 16 out of 45.
16) Orange Juice (OJ) High 43.93% - Low 21.50% - Current 30.07%.
Orange Juice options for a six-month ‘implied volatility’ average are ranked number 8 out of 45.
8) Orange Juice (OJ) High 33.31% - Low 22.29% - Current 30.07%.
Options are steadily moving higher.
DAILY CHART:
http://www.bohl.minot.com/d_Chart.cgi?OJ06F
------------
WEEKLY CHART:
http://www.bohl.minot.com/w_Chart.cgi?OJ
* (Futures traders and their account executives are advised to discuss this suggested stop).
** (Option traders and their account executives are advised to discuss the suggested risk).
----------------------------------------------------
DECEMBER CRUDE OIL (CL5Z)
Last week I quoted from the September 25th and October 2nd issues of the Weekly Trade Advisor that December Crude Oil had begun developing a bearish ‘head and shoulders’ top.”
In addition, November and December Crude Oil was developing a potential monthly recommendation for October.
My belief was that traders would need to center on the December contract because of the upcoming last trading day for November Crude Oil on 10/20/05.
On 10/04/05, December Crude Oil posted a monthly sell signal at 63.44.
Our objective was and still is 56.10.
Last week, I began developing several additional ‘trading modules’ for December Crude Oil because of a daily recommendation for last Monday and weekly recommendation for last week.
I will remind traders again - this product is not for the inexperienced trader or the faint of heart.
Traders are not to exceed the rule of thumb - 10% of equity to risk ratio. The proposed risk for the weekly recommendation in
December Crude was and still is $3,670 - and $1,835 for the mini crude contract.
That means traders should have an account size of $37,000 per contract to trade the full Crude Oil contract and $19,000 per contract for the Mini Crude Oil contract.
If you do not fit this profile, traders are advised to consult their account executive for an option trading strategy.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated that the net change in open interest last week increased by 4,424, posting a total open interest of 821,833 contracts.
WHAT DOES THE DECEMBER CRUDE OIL CHART LOOK LIKE?
Until recently, December Crude had been in a multi-year price advance, which began from lows of 20.14 (2/22/02) to recent highs of 70.80 (8/30/05).
Currently, December Crude has been in an eight-week price decline from highs of 70.80 to lows of 58.75 (11/02/05).
On 10/04/05, December Crude posted a monthly sell signal at 63.44.
On 10/26/05, December Crude posted an ‘intra-day’ sell signal at 60.89.
On 10/31/05, December Crude posted a daily sell signal at 60.54.
On 10/31/05, December Crude posted a weekly sell signal at 59.14.
For Monday, December Crude Oil has a daily recommendation: buy when trades 61.61 - sell when trades 60.49.
December Crude has one unfilled price gap above the current market price between 64.70 and 64.90. 
December Crude has five unfilled price gaps below the current market price. The first gap is between 53.60 and 53.85, the second gap is between 47.35 and 47.90.
December Crude Oil has a bearish ‘head and shoulders top’.
The left shoulder was established from lows of 59.55 and highs of 64.00.
The head was developed between lows of 63.45 and highs of 70.80.
The right shoulder is developing between recent lows of 58.75 and highs of 63.90.
I do not believe the all-important neckline is in place until our objective of 56.10 is posted.
Once 56.10 is posted, our long-term objective will be 41.40. However, this proposed projection of 41.40 may not be realized for several months.
December Crude’s 40-day moving average and 50-day moving average as of Friday were at 63.26 and 64.17, respectively.
December Crude closed Friday at 60.58, which is below its 100-day moving average of 63.52 and above its 200-day moving average of 58.11.
WHAT WERE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO LAST WEEK?
Last Monday, December Crude had a daily recommendation: buy when trades 61.43 - sell when trades 60.54.
Last week, December Crude had a weekly recommendation: buy when trades 62.96 - sell when trades 59.29.
Below are ‘trading modules’ that futures and option traders were to consider last week:
# 1) If December Crude first posted a daily buy signal at 61.43:
Aggressive futures traders were advised not to establish a long position.
Option traders were advised to not purchase January calls.
# 4) If December Crude first posted a daily sell signal at 60.54:
Aggressive futures traders were advised to establish a short position, placing stops above 63.90*.
Options traders were advised to purchase March 60.00 - 55.00 bear put spreads, risking 70% of purchase price**.
Our first objective was a challenge of the weekly sell signal of 59.29 and October monthly lows of 59.15.
# 5) If December Crude posted multiple closes below 59.15:
Aggressive futures traders were advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing all stops above 62.96.
Options traders were advised to purchase March 60.00 - 55.00 bear put spreads, risking 70% of purchase price.
Trading module # 4 was activated.
Trading module # 5 was not activated because multiple closes below 59.15 did not occur.
WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
Aggressive traders who established a short position at 60.54 are advised to leave stops above 63.90*.
Options traders who purchased March 60.00 - 55.00 bear put spreads are advised to risk 70% of purchase price**.
For Monday, December Crude has a daily recommendation: buy when trades 61.61 - sell when trades 60.49.
Below are ‘trading modules’ for futures and option traders to consider next week:
# 1) If the December Crude first posted a daily buy signal at 61.61:
Aggressive futures traders are not advised to establish a long position.
Option traders are advised to not purchase January calls or bull call spreads.
# 2) If December Crude first posts a daily sell signal at 60.49:
Aggressive futures traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing stops above 63.90*.
Options traders are advised to purchase March 60.00 - 57.00 bear put spreads, risking 70% of purchase price**.
Our objectives will be a challenge of October's monthly low of 59.15 and last week's low of 58.75.
# 3) If December Crude posts multiple closes below 58.75:
Aggressive futures traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing all stops above 61.85*.
Options traders are advised to purchase March 60.00 - 57.00 bear put spreads, risking 70% of purchase price**.
# 4) If December Crude posts multiple closes below 57.60:
Aggressive futures traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing all stops above 59.15*.
Options traders are advised to sit with their existing bear put spread position, risking 50% of market price**.
Our objective will be 56.10.
Below are possible reversal ‘trading modules’ to consider next week:
# 5) If December Crude first posts a daily sell signal at 60.49 yet reverses, posting the daily buy signal at 61.61:
Aggressive futures traders are not advised to establish a long position. Traders are advised to enact trading modules # 1 and # 2.
Options traders are not advised to purchase March bull call spreads. Option traders are advised to enact trading module # 1 and # 2.
# 6) If December Crude first posts a daily buy signal at 61.61 yet reverses, posting the daily sell signal at 60.49:
Aggressive futures traders are advised to place resting sell stop orders below last week's low of 58.75.
Options traders are advised to prepare to purchase March 60.00 - 57.00 bear put spreads if last week's low of 58.75 is posted.
If trading module # 6 is activated:
Aggressive futures traders will have either added to their established short position or establish a short position from their resting sell stop orders below 58.75, place all stops above 61.85. 
Options traders are advised to purchase March 60.00 - 57.00 put spreads, risking 70% of purchase price**.
I have listed some Crude option facts:
Crude options for a two-year ‘implied volatility’ average are ranked number 6 out of 45.
6) Crude (CL) High 44.71% - Low 27.07% - Current 34.60%.
Crude options for a one-year ‘implied volatility’ average are ranked number 29 out of 45.
29) Crude (CL) High 44.38% - Low 31.20% - Current 34.60%.
Crude options for a six-month ‘implied volatility’ average are ranked number 27 out of 45.
27) Crude (CL) High 40.11% - Low 32.42% - Current 34.60%.
DAILY CHART:
http://www.bohl.minot.com/d_Chart.cgi?CL05Z
------------
WEEKLY CHART:
http://www.bohl.minot.com/w_Chart.cgi?CL
* (Futures traders and their account executives are advised to discuss this suggested stop).
** (Option traders and their account executives are advised to discuss the suggested risk).
----------------------------------------------------
CASH U.S. DOLLAR (DXY$Y) AND DECEMBER JAPANESE YEN (JY5Z)
For the last several months I've written about the U.S. Dollar and Cash U.S. Dollar index because of a bullish ‘head and shoulders’ bottom on the long-term weekly and monthly charts.
Last week, I added the Japanese Yen to end of the U.S. Dollar piece because of an ‘intra-year’ sell signal that was posted two weeks ago at .8711.
For nine-weeks, I have been writing on and off that traders should focus on the Cash Dollar chart because the rollovers that occur in the futures Dollar chart every three-months might confuse traders. The Cash Dollar is one continuous chart that makes it easier to identify with over a long period of time.
Five-weeks ago, I stated that if the Cash U.S. Dollar could post a monthly close at or above 89.44 by the close of business
September 30th, this would constitute a continuation pattern conducive with higher prices.
Conversely, I noted to currency traders that the Euro-Currency (FX) and the Swiss Franc had posted ’intra-monthly’ sell signals.
On the close of business September 30th, the Euro-Currency (FX) (EC5Z) posted an ‘intra-monthly’ sell signal at 1.2195. This constituted a continuation price pattern to the downside.
However, as I stated the last two-week's, the main story is the Japanese Yen.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report for the Japanese Yen - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated that the net change in open interest last week increased by 585, posting a total open interest of 195,803 contracts.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report for the U.S. Dollar - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated that the net change in open interest last week decreased by -848, posting a total open interest of 33,202 contracts.
WHAT DOES THE U.S. DOLLAR CHART LOOK LIKE?
Until recently, the Cash U.S. Dollar has been in a multi-year price decline, which in actuality means the dollar has depreciated against the major currencies around the world. The U.S. Dollar, unlike other currencies, is a basket of all currencies.
Currently, it appears the U.S. Dollar futures and the Cash U.S. Dollar have formed a ‘head and shoulders’ bottom on the daily, weekly and monthly charts.
As I stated last week, this bullish ‘head and shoulders’ bottom either represents the demise of Mr. Greenspan’s successor or the Bush Administration’s attempt to switch from a weak dollar policy to a stronger dollar policy.'
Does this mean Chief of Staff Carl Rove is out? 
Time will tell...
THE DAILY, WEEKLY, MONTHLY CHART:
The Cash U.S. Dollar daily, weekly and monthly charts show a well defined ‘left’ shoulder' that developed between 92.25 highs (5/13/04) to lows of 87.00 (7/19/04).
The Cash U.S. Dollar daily, weekly and monthly charts define the ‘head’ that was established between 80.42 lows and 86.93 highs.
The Cash U.S. Dollar daily, weekly and monthly charts shows the ‘right’ shoulder development between lows of 86.02 and highs of 90.77.
As I discussed last week, the all-important neckline breakout would occur at 90.75 and confirmation of a breakout would occur on multiple closes above 90.77, which were recent highs.
Last week was the first week of a critical close above 90.77.
WHAT DOES ALL OF THIS MEAN?
It appears that the U.S. Dollar may be forming a long-term bottom that may critically injure the major cross-currencies. Also, this apparent policy change may indeed signal the long awaited rise in Bond and Note yields.
Our objective for the Cash U.S. Dollar will be 102.16, which has not been visited since 2003.
The correlation of the Dollar's rise, due to our growing trade deficit and higher yields, may signal an end to the rise of real estate values.
Mr. Greenspan - not so long ago - warned investors of 'exuberance' in the stock market. Two-years later, the markets plunged to levels not seen since 1997.
Mr. Greenspan again warned investors of a 'frothy' real estate market. Will the next several years reflect prices not seen since 2003?
The ball may be rolling and could push homeowners who bought real estate at unaffordable prices with favorable interest only payments over the edge.
WHAT DOES THE JAPANESE YEN CHART LOOK LIKE?
The Yen has been in a year-long price decline that began from highs of .9873 (1/31/05) to recent lows of .8491.
The Yen has posted a critical 'intra-year' sell signal at .8712.
A yearly close below .8712 would post a major trend reversal for the Japanese Yen and would constitute a continuation price pattern to lower levels for 2006.
On 10/21/05, the Yen posted its first weekly close below the ‘intra-year’ sell signal of .8712.
On 10/28/05, the Yen posted its second weekly close below the ‘intra-year’ sell signal at .8712.
On 10/31/05, the Yen posted its first monthly close below the 'intra-year' sell signal at .8712.
On 11/04/05, the Yen posted its third weekly close below the all-important .8712 price level.
This product is extremely volatile and should only be traded by aggressive traders.
Traders should have an equity to risk ratio of no more than 10% to trade this product. The proposed daily risk to trade this product is $600 but traders are advised to be prepared to risk $2,200.
That means traders should have an account size of $22,000 per contract to trade this product.
If you do not fit this profile, I suggest that traders consult their account executive and consider an options strategy.
WHAT WERE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO LAST WEEK?
The December Yen had a daily recommendation last Monday: buy when trades .8739 - sell when trades .8691.
Below were possible ‘trading modules’ that future traders were to consider last week:
# 1) If the December Yen first posted a daily buy signal at .8739:
Aggressive futures traders were advised to not establish a long position
Option traders were not advised to purchase call options.
# 4) If the December Yen first posted a daily sell signal at .8691:
Aggressive futures traders were advised to establish a short position, placing stops above the previous week’s high of .8780*.
Option traders were advised to purchase March 8600 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**.
# 5) If the December Yen posted a lower low than October’s low of .8653:
Aggressive futures traders were advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing all stops above .8712.*.
Options traders were advised to purchase March 8600 puts, risking 70% of purchase price.
Trading modules # 4 and # 5 were activated last week.
Our objective of .8526 was met on Friday.
WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
Aggressive traders who have established short positions at .8691 are advised to move all stops above .8712*.
Aggressive traders who either added to their existing short position or established a short position on a lower low than October's low of .8653 are advised to move all stops above .8712*.
Option traders who purchased March 8600 puts are advised to risk 50% of market value**.
Aggressive futures traders and option traders who exited any or all of their established short positions on Friday at .8526 may want to consider the trading modules proposed below:
Below are possible ‘trading modules’ for futures traders to consider next week:
# 1) If the December Yen first posts a lower low than last week's low of .8491:
Aggressive futures traders are advised to not add or establish a short position. Traders are advised to wait for a price advance to resistance at .8562.
If the Yen does reach the .8562 price level, aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing all stops above .8712*.
Option traders are not advised to purchase puts. Option traders are advised to wait for a price advance to resistance at .8562.
If the Yen does reach the .8562 price level, option traders are advised to purchase March 8600 puts, risking 70% of purchased value**.
# 2) If the December Yen posts multiple closes above .8712:
Aggressive futures traders are advised to sit on the sidelines and wait for another trading opportunity.
Options traders are advised to exit their March 8600 puts and wait for another trading opportunity.
# 4) If the December Yen first posts multiple closes below last week's low of 8491 and posts a close below .8478:
Aggressive futures traders are advised to either add to their established short position or establish a short position, placing stops for this position only above .8653*.
Option traders are advised to purchase March 8600 put options, risking 70% of purchase price.
Our next objective will be .8388.
I have listed some Japanese Yen option facts:
Japanese Yen for a two-year ‘implied volatility’ average are ranked number 20 out of 45.
20) Japanese Yen (JY) High 12.72% - Low 6.84% - Current 8.13%.
Japanese Yen options for a one-year ‘implied volatility’ average are ranked number 22 out of 45.
22) Japanese Yen (JY) High 11.06% - Low 6.84% - Current 8.13%.
Japanese Yen options for a six-month ‘implied volatility’ average are ranked number 10 out of 45.
10) Japanese Yen (JY) High 9.07% - Low 6.84% - Current 8.13%.
DAILY DOLLAR CHART:
http://www.bohl.minot.com/d_Chart.cgi?DX05Z
------------
DAILY YEN CHART:
http://www.bohl.minot.com/d_Chart.cgi?JY05Z
------------
WEEKLY CHART:
http://www.bohl.minot.com/w_Chart.cgi?JY
* (Futures traders and their account executives are advised to discuss this suggested stop).
** (Option traders and their account executives are advised to discuss the suggested risk).
----------------------------------------------------
DECEMBER U.S. 30-YEAR BOND (US5Z) AND TEN-YEAR NOTE (TY5Z)
Last week I began discussing the December U.S. 30-year Bond and December Ten year note because each of these products posted weekly sell signals the week before last.
The December U.S. 30-year bond posted a weekly sell signal at 112-09.
The December Ten year note posted a weekly sell signal at 108-230.
The Ten-year note Friday closed below 2004 lows of 107-225.
Last week I suggested that trader’s center on the December 30-year Bond because traders had been previously advised to either establish short futures positions from 113-10 down to 112-13 or purchase December 113 puts, 112 puts and 111 puts.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report for 30-year Bonds - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated that the net change in open interest last week increased by 6,180, posting a total open interest of 601,814 contracts.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report for Ten year Notes  - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated that the net change in open interest last week increased by 17,105, posting a total open interest of 1,746,486 contracts.
WHAT DOES THE DECEMBER 30-YEAR BOND CHART LOOK LIKE?
Both the 30-year Bonds and Ten-year Notes have developed bearish 'M' formations.
The middle of the 30-year Bond 'M' formation is at 113-11.
Major resistance is at 113-11. 
Past major support and a critical price level is 109-16.
December Bonds have been in an eight-week price decline from highs of 118-10 (9/01/05) to recent lows of 110-12 (11/04/05).
December Bonds have left a bearish gap between 112-10 and 112-13 which five attempts have failed to fill.
Last week I discussed the fact that if Bonds were unable to fill this recent gap, this would constitute a continuation pattern to lower prices.
December Bonds 40-day moving average and 50-day moving average as of Friday were at 113-24 and 114-13, respectively.
December Bonds closed Friday at 110-21, which is below its 100-day moving average of 115-05 and its 200-day moving average of 114-04.
This product is extremely volatile and should only be traded by aggressive traders.
Traders should have an equity to risk ratio of no more than 10% to trade this product. The proposed weekly risk to trade this product is $2,200.
That means traders should have an account size of $22,000 per contract to trade this product.
If you do not fit this profile, I suggest that traders consult their account executive and consider an options strategy.
WHAT WERE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO LAST WEEK?
Aggressive trade who established a short position above the previous week's sell signal of 112-09 were advised to move stops above 113-11*.
Option traders who purchased either December 113, 112 or 111 puts were advised to risk 50% of market price**.
Below were possible ‘trading modules’ that future traders were to consider last week:
# 1) If the December Bond first posted a lower low than October’s low of 111-10:
Aggressive futures traders were advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing all stops above the unfilled gap at 112-13*.
Option traders were advised to purchase December 111 puts or March 108 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**.
# 2) If the December Bond posted multiple closes below 110-28:
Aggressive futures traders were advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing all stops above 112-13.*.
Options traders were advised to purchase March 108 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**.
Our objective will be 109-16.
Trading modules # 1 and # 2 were activated last week.
Our objective of 109-16 has not been met yet.
WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
Aggressive trade who established a short position above the weekly sell signal of 112-09 are advised to move stops above 112-13*.
Aggressive futures traders who either added to their existing short position or established a short position on a lower low than 111-10 are advised to move stops above the unfilled gap at 112-13*.
Aggressive futures traders who either added to their existing short position or established a short position on multiple closes below 110-28 are advised to move stops above the unfilled gap at 112-13*.
Option traders who purchased either December 113, 112 or 111 puts are advised to risk 50% of market price**.
Below are possible ‘trading modules’ for futures traders to consider next week:
# 1) If the December Bond first posts a lower low than last week's low of 110-12:
Aggressive futures traders are advised to not add to their existing short position or establish a short position. Traders are advised to wait for a price advance to resistance at 111-11.
If the December 30-year Bond does reach the 111-11 price level, aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing all stops above 112-13*.
Option traders are advised not to purchase puts. Option traders are advised to wait for a price advance to resistance at 111 -11.
If the December 30-year Bond does reach the 111-11 price level, option traders are advised to purchase March 108 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**.
# 2) If the December Bond first posts a price advance to 111-11:
If the December 30-year Bond does reach the 111-11 price level, aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing all stops above 112-13*.
If the December 30-year Bond does reach the 111-11 price level, option traders are advised to purchase March 108 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**.
# 3) If the December Bond posts multiple closes below 110-12 and posts a close below 110-02:
Aggressive futures traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing all stops above 111-10*.
Options traders are advised to purchase March 108 puts, risking 70% of purchase price.
Our objective will be 109-16.
# 4) If the December Bond posts multiple closes below 109-16:
Aggressive futures traders are advised to not add to their existing short position but are advised to let the market do the work for them - move all stops above 110-12*.
Options traders are advised to not add to their existing put position but are advised to let the market do the work for them, risking 50% of purchase price**.
Our next objective will be 108-25.
I have listed some Bond option facts:
Bond options for a two-year ‘implied volatility’ average are ranked number 28 out of 45.
28) Bond (US) High 13.68% - Low 7.25% - Current 8.11%.
Bond options for a one-year ‘implied volatility’ average are ranked number 20 out of 45.
20) Bond (US) High 9.78 - Low 7.25% - 8.11%.
Bond options for a six-month ‘implied volatility’ average are ranked number 16 out of 45.
16) Bond (US) High 8.80% - Low 7.45% - 8.11%.
Options are still reasonably cheap.
DAILY CHART:
http://www.bohl.minot.com/d_Chart.cgi?US05Z
------------
WEEKLY CHART:
http://www.bohl.minot.com/w_Chart.cgi?US
* (Futures traders and their account executives are advised to discuss this suggested stop).
** (Option traders and their account executives are advised to discuss the suggested risk).
----------------------------------------------------
DECEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR (CD5Z)
Last week, the Canadian Dollar was placed in ‘Chart Watch’ because of a possible monthly recommendation developing for November - which would not revealed until the close of business October 31st.
This week, the December Canadian Dollar will be added to 'Tech Talk' because of a monthly recommendation for November and a weekly recommendation for next week.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated that the net change in open interest last week increased by 3,601, posting a total open interest of 108,226 contracts.
WHAT DOES THE CANADIAN DOLLAR CHART LOOK LIKE?
The December Canadian Dollar has been in a five-month price advance from lows of .7900 (5/17/05) to highs of .8649 (9/30/05).
Currently, the Canadian Dollar has traded from highs of .8649 to recent lows of .8400 (10/24/05).
The December Canadian Dollar has three unfilled price gaps below the current market price. The first unfilled price gap is  between .8293 and .8307. The second unfilled price gap is between .8209 and .8210.
The December Canadian Dollar has no unfilled price gaps above the current market price. 
The December Canadian Dollar’s 40-day moving average and 50-day moving average as of Friday were at .8515 and .8499, respectively.
The December Canadian Dollar closed Friday at .8456, which is above its 100-day moving average of .8370 and its 200-day moving average of .8245.
WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
The December Canadian has a weekly recommendation for next week: buy when trades .8546 - sell when trades .8436.
The December Canadian has a monthly recommendation for November: buy when trades .8627 - sell when trades .8399.
This product is extremely volatile and should only be traded by aggressive traders.
Traders should have an equity to risk ratio of no more than 10% to trade this product.
The proposed weekly risk to trade this product is $1,100.
The proposed monthly risk to trade this product is $2,280.
That means traders should have an account size of $23,000 per contract to trade this product.
If you do not fit this profile, I suggest that traders sit on the sidelines because there is very little option volume which makes an options strategy difficult.
Below are possible ‘trading modules’ for futures traders to consider next week:
# 1) If the December Canadian first posts a weekly buy signal at .8546:
Aggressive traders are not advised to establish a long position.
# 2) If the Canadian first posts a weekly buy signal at .8546 and posts a monthly buy signal at .8627:
Aggressive traders are advised to establish a long position, placing stops at .8399.
Our objective is .8855.
# 3) If the Canadian first posts a weekly sell signal at .8436:
Aggressive traders are not advised to establish a short position.
# 4) if the Canadian first posts a weekly sell signal at .8436 and a monthly sell signal at .8399:
Aggressive traders are advised to establish a short position, placing a stop at .8627.
Our objective will be .8171.
Below are possible reversal ‘trading modules’ to consider next week:
# 5) If December Canadian first posts a weekly buy signal at .8546 yet reverses, posting the weekly sell signal at .8436:
Aggressive futures traders are advised to place resting sell stop orders at the weekly sell signal of .8436.
If trading module # 5 is activated: Aggressive futures traders will have established a short position from their resting sell stop orders at .8436, place all stops at .8546.
# 6) If trading module # 5 is activated, aggressive traders are advised to place resting sell stop orders at the monthly sell signal of .8399.
If trading module # 6 is activated: Aggressive futures traders will have established a short position from their resting sell stop orders at .8399, place all stops at .8546. 
Our objective is .8171.
# 7) If the Canadian first posts a weekly sell signal at .8436 yet reverses, posting the weekly buy signal at .8546:
Aggressive futures traders are advised to place resting buy stop orders at the weekly buy signal of .8546.
If trading module # 7 is activated: Aggressive futures traders will have established a long position from their resting buy stop orders at .8546, place all stops at .8399.
# 8) If trading module # 7 is activated, aggressive traders are advised to then place resting buy stop orders at the monthly buy signal of .8627.
If trading module # 8 is activated: Aggressive futures traders will have established a long position from their resting buy stop orders at .8627, place all stops below .8436. 
Our objective will be .8855.
DAILY CHART:
http://www.bohl.minot.com/d_Chart.cgi?CD05Z
------------
WEEKLY CHART:
http://www.bohl.minot.com/w_Chart.cgi?CD
* (Futures traders and their account executives are advised to discuss this suggested stop).
** (Option traders and their account executives are advised to discuss the suggested risk).

 CHART WATCH by Scott R. Joss (Non member C.T.A)*

Readers and clients call during the week and ask: What are you watching?

Watching can mean that the markets are developing a 'recommendation' or a chart pattern that has not yet fully developed - or may never develop.

During the course of the week or month it is not uncommon to find an `intra-day, intra-week or intra-month' recommendation that was previously not revealed when this newsletter was written.

Products that currently fit into this 'watch' category are listed below and should be 'watched.'

MARCH SUGAR (SB6H)
After twenty-four weeks, March Sugar will move from 'Tech Talk' to 'Chart Watch'. For the last four weeks I've discussed why Sugar might be in a short-term consolidation period - but in the long-term why prices should continue higher. I explained why a short-term consolidation in prices might ensue based technically on the price bar between lows of 11.12 and highs of 11.91, which was posted on 10/04/05.
For four-weeks March Sugar has consolidated between 11.12 and 11.91. Last week I explained this may signal that March Sugar prices need to retrench and test the lower portion of the consolidation range at 11.12.
March Sugar last week traded in a range between lows of 11.16 and highs of 11.58.
Will this mean the twenty-four week price advance in Sugar is over?
Short-term yes, long-term no.
Until March Sugar can successfully post multiple closes either below 11.12 or above contract highs of 11.91, it will continue to trade in a 79 point range.
I have stressed to traders for five months that the Sugar ‘trading modules’ I develop - and will continue to develop - are long-term trades that may span a year or more before achieving our final destination. 
In past issues of the Joss Report, I advised traders to stay at least four-months out in established long positions because of the length of this tend.
Until recently, traders were advised to purchase March 2006 futures and options - then traders were to roll forward as time approaches. 
March Sugar options expire on 2/10/06, which is almost three months away.
Also, first notice day for March Futures is less than four months away.
Does that mean traders should be out of their long March Sugar futures and option positions?
This week my response is the same as is was last week; Yes and no.
Yes.... if traders are naked long or unhedged.
No.... if traders established the March vs. May futures spread, which was suggested many weeks ago at even (0).
Traders were advised, based on past history, to buy March Sugar and sell May Sugar as a spread of even (0) and exit if the spread either went negative or approached a price differential of plus 33.  
On 10/06/05, March Sugar posted a daily sell signal at 11.31.
Traders were advised to either exit their long positions or move stops up.
My trading strategy since exiting March Sugar four-weeks ago was to either wait for multiple closes to occur above 11.91 to reestablish long positions or to sit on the sidelines and wait for another buying opportunity at lower prices in the July 2006 futures and options.
Has the current price consolidation changed my views where Sugar prices will go long-term?
No.
My belief - technically and fundamentally - that sugar prices will go much higher in the long-term is based on two very bullish ’W’ formations. These ‘W’ formations have developed on the daily, weekly and monthly charts.
The middle of the first ‘W’ is at 9.13 and the middle of the second ‘W’ is at 11.40.
The caveat is to maintain a foothold above the 11.40 price.
Currently, what is March Sugar’s challenge?
First, Sugar must maintain a foothold above 11.40.
Second, Sugar is filling in the past unfilled price gap left from 1/09/98 between 11.72 and 11.80.
This up and down price filling is normal but can get choppy.
Next week the all-important USDA, Crop Production and Supply/Demand report will be released.
This may give traders a better understanding of the current Sugar situation posed by hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma.       
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated that the net change in open interest last week decreased by -12,063, posting a total open interest of 460,599 contracts.
Fundamentally, my belief still stands that Sugar prices will move higher long-term based on the current supply/demand equation and world policy changes to cut subsidies.
Traders may have to wait until mid-December - when the Doha Round talks in Hong Kong conclude - before Sugar prices can move significantly higher or lower.
WHAT DOES THE MARCH SUGAR CHART LOOK LIKE?
On 10/04/05, the March Sugar chart posted highs of 11.91 and lows of 11.12.
I advised traders to watch this price bar on the daily chart because it might represent a ‘spike’ high pole. If it were a spike high pole, it could be the beginning process of a consolidation period between 11.12 and 11.91.
Sugar will need to post either multiple closes above 11.91 for a continuation pattern to higher prices or multiple closes below 11.12 to begin a correction period. Until this occurs, Sugar continues to be trapped in consolidation between 11.12 and 11.91.
March Sugar has been in a multi-year price advance which began from lows of 6.12 (2/13/04) to recent highs of 11.91 (10/04/05).
On 10/04/05, March Sugar filled the first of eight unfilled price gaps above the current market price between 11.72 and 11.80.
Next week will be the fifth week of price consolidation if March Sugar stays above 11.12 and below 11.91
If March Sugar for the next four-weeks can continue to trade between 11.12 and 11.91, this may produce a possible monthly recommendation for December.
If this were to occur, subscribers to the Joss Report will be notified via email the evening of November 30th.  
March Sugar has eight unfilled price gaps above the current market price. The first unfilled price gap is between 11.58 and 11.59. The next unfilled price gap is between 13.50 and 13.61.
March Sugar has five unfilled price gaps below the current market price. The most recent unfilled price gap is between 10.21 and 10.23.
For nineteen-weeks, March Sugar has closed above its 40-day moving average and 50-day moving average, which as of Friday was at 11.31 and 11.16, respectively.
March Sugar closed Friday at 11.57, which is above its 100-day moving average of 10.44 and its 200-day moving average of 9.66.
WHAT WERE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO LAST NEXT WEEK?
Below are ‘trading modules’ that futures and option traders were to consider last week:
# 1) If March Sugar first posted a close above 11.91:
Aggressive traders were advised to establish a long position in July Sugar, placing stops below 11.06.
Option traders were advised to purchase July 1300 calls, risking 50% of purchase price**.
# 3) If March Sugar posted a close below 11.12:
Aggressive traders were advised to sit on the sidelines and wait for another buying opportunity in the July Sugar contract.
Option traders were advised sit on the sidelines and wait for another buying opportunity in July options.
# 4) If March Sugar posted a close above 11.12 yet below 11.91:
Aggressive traders were not advised to establish a position. Traders were advised to sit on the sidelines and wait for another buying opportunity in the July Sugar contract.
Option traders were not advised to purchase an option position. Option traders were advised sit on the sidelines and wait for another buying opportunity in July options.
Trading module # 4 was activated last week.
WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
Below are ‘trading modules’ for futures and option traders to consider next week:
# 1) If March Sugar first posts multiple closes above 11.91:
Aggressive traders are advised to establish a long position in July Sugar, placing stops below 11.06.
Option traders are advised to purchase either July 1200 or July 1300 calls, risking 50% of purchase price**.
# 2) If March Sugar activated trading module # 1 and posts a close above 12.31, which were 1998 highs:
Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing long July Sugar position or establish a long position in July Sugar, placing all stops below 11.43*.
Option traders are advised to purchase July 1300 calls, risking 50% of purchased price**.
Our first objective will be 12.70 vs. March Sugar.
# 3) If March Sugar posts multiple closes below 11.12:
Aggressive traders are advised to sit on the sidelines and wait for another buying opportunity in the July Sugar contract.
Option traders are advised sit on the sidelines and wait for another buying opportunity in July options.
# 4) If March Sugar posts a close above 11.12 yet below 11.91:
Aggressive traders are not advised to establish a position. Traders are advised to sit on the sidelines and wait for another buying opportunity in the July Sugar contract.
Option traders are not advised to purchase an option position. Option traders are advised sit on the sidelines and wait for another buying opportunity in July options.
For weeks, I have listed some Sugar option facts:
Sugar options for a two-year ‘implied volatility’ average are ranked number 19 out of 45.
19) Sugar (SB) High 42.12% - Low 18.90% - Current 24.11%.
Sugar options for a one-year ‘implied volatility’ average are ranked number 13 out of 45.
13) Sugar (SB) High 32.40% - Low 18.90% - 24.11%.
Sugar options for a six-month ‘implied volatility’ average are ranked number 22 out of 45.
22) Sugar (SB) High 32.40% - Low 18.90% - Current 24.11%.
Sugar options are mid-range.
DAILY CHART MARCH SUGAR:
http://bohl.minot.com/d_Chart.cgi?SB06H
------------
WEEKLY CHART:
http://bohl.minot.com/w_Chart.cgi?SB
* (Futures traders and their account executives are advised to discuss this suggested stop).
** (Option traders and their account executives are advised to discuss the suggested risk).
----------------------------------------------------
MARCH SOYBEANS (SH6)
Last week March Soybeans was placed in ‘Chart Watch’ because of a possible monthly recommendation developing for November - which would not be revealed until the close of business October 31st.
March Soybeans have a monthly recommendation for November.
March Soybeans posted an 'intra-week' buy signal last week at 602.75.
This week March Soybeans will remain on 'Chart Watch' until after the all-important USDA Crop Production and Supply/Demand report that is due out on November 10th.
Traders are advised to contact Scott Joss or Derrick Lewis at 1-800-493-4444 to discuss the Weekly Trader Advisor’s ‘game plan’ for March Soybeans in November. 
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated that the net change in open interest last week decreased by -14,595, posting a total open interest of 274,636 contracts.
WHAT DOES THE MARCH SOYBEAN CHART LOOK LIKE?
March Soybeans have been in a seventeen-week price decline from highs of 760.00 (6/24/05) to lows of 573.00 (9/27/05).
Recently, March Soybeans have traded from lows of 573.00 to recent highs of 619.00 (10/17/05).
Currently, March Soybeans have been in a two-month trading range between lows of 573.00 and highs of 619.00.
March Soybeans have a monthly recommendation for November: buy when trades 619.25 - sell when trades 573.75.
Until March Soybeans post multiple closes below lows of 573.00 or highs of 619.00, this product will continue to consolidate.
March Soybeans have four unfilled price gaps above the current market price. The closest unfilled price gap is between 644.25 and 650.00.
March Soybeans have five unfilled price gaps below the current market price. The most recent unfilled price gap is between 595.25 and 597.00. 
March Soybeans 40-day moving average and 50-day moving average as of Friday were at 593.00 and 598.25, respectively.
March Soybeans closed Friday at 600.50, which is below its 100-day moving average of 641.25 and its 200-day moving average of 627.00.
I have listed some Soybean option facts:
Soybean options for a two-year ‘implied volatility’ average are ranked number 39 out of 45.
39) Soybean (S) High 45.45% - Low 19.62% - Current 21.12%.
Soybean options for a one-year ‘implied volatility’ average are ranked number 40 out of 45.
40) Soybean (S) High 45.45% - Low 19.62% - 21.12%.
Soybean options for a six-month ‘implied volatility’ average are ranked number 43 out of 45.
43) Soybean (S) High 45.45% - Low 20.74% - 21.12%.
Options are cheap. Not just for calls but also puts.
DAILY CHART:
http://www.bohl.minot.com/d_Chart.cgi?S06H
------------
WEEKLY CHART:
http://www.bohl.minot.com/w_Chart.cgi?S
* (Futures traders and their account executives are advised to discuss this suggested stop).
** (Option traders and their account executives are advised to discuss the suggested risk).

CURRENT 'MONTHLY' RECOMMENDATIONS
FOR NOVEMBER:

- DECEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR (CD5Z)

FUTURE WATCH

Future watch will list developing 'monthly' recommendations to watch in November for December. By listing these products, traders can `feed-forward' with anticipation and focus - centering on products that will provide direction and hopefully, opportunity.
Traders should begin studying the 'daily', 'weekly' and 'monthly' charts for the products listed below. Don't forget between now and the end of the month, some or all of these products may be de-listed.
'Monthly' recommendations will be revealed on the close of business November 30 and sent via email for December.

- Potential monthly recommendations for December will be listed in future issues of the Weekly Trade Advisor.

COPYRIGHT WARNING AND NOTICE: It
is a violation of federal copyright law to
reproduce all or any part of this publication or
its contents by email, facsimile, xerography,
scanning or any other means, without
permission.
Copyright 2005, Joss Report - S.R. Joss Inc and ClearTrade®Inc. All rights reserved.
If you are receiving this report from any other source than S.R. Joss Inc or ClearTrade® Inc. please contact us at 800- 493-4444.
 

NOTE:

If you do not completely understand this information, you are advised to take NO action until speaking with your Account Executive.

ClearTrade® Inc. may be reached at 800-493-4444

* The Joss Report trade recommendations and weekly trade advisor is prepared by Scott Joss, Non- Member C.T.A.

Scott Joss is a 'non member' CTA and is providing the Joss Report weekly trading advisor and trade recommendations to ClearTrade® Inc. clients. Scott Joss 'is a principal' of ClearTrade® Inc. and 'is a registered IB member' with the NFA.

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Market recommendations are strictly the opinion of the writer and are intended solely for informative purposes and are not to be construed, under any circumstances, by implication or otherwise, as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or trade in any commodities or securities herein named. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve substantial risk. In no event should the content of a market letter be construed as a promise that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever.

Unless otherwise indicated, the links presented in this publication/newsletter are in no way affiliated with ClearTrade®, Inc. Likewise, sites linked through ClearTrade's Joss Report weekly trade advisor newsletter are not necessarily connected with ClearTrade®, nor do any such links imply an endorsement by either party.

ClearTrade, Inc. does not necessarily promote or endorse the services or publications described herein. Unless otherwise indicated, ClearTrade Inc. has had no role in the production or review of these products or services and makes no warranty, either expressed or implied, as to their contents, accuracy or performance.

Information provided in this newsletter is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted.

REPRODUCTION OR REBROADCAST OF ANY PORTION OF THIS INFORMATION IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED WITHOUT THE WRITTEN PERMISSION OF S.R. JOSS INC./CLEARTRADE® INC.

The contents of this newsletter are copyright 1997-2005, Scott R. Joss/S.R. Joss Inc./ClearTrade® Inc. *TM. All Rights Reserved.

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