WELCOME TO CLEARTRADE'S NEWSLETTER
ClearTrade's trading recommendations and weekly commodity newsletter was first published in October 1998. Since that time, our research has continued to evolve into an important source of technical insight for many traders. Our goal is to provide traders with a 'game plan' to prepare for the trading day and week ahead.
ClearTrade's technical analyst, Scott Joss, is a veteran futures trader with twenty-eight years experience on and off the trading floor - as a pit trader, account executive handling arbitrage for Smith Barney, former member of the CBOT and presently an IB. Scott prepares technical analysis in selected market groups when an opportunity presents itself and not only develops trading modules on selected trading opportunities but 'feeds-forward', advising traders what to expect and how to react.
 At ClearTrade, we think it’s helpful to speak directly with traders who have requested our research and/or may be interested in establishing an account with us. Understanding your trading needs and goals is important. And we think you should have an opportunity to get to know who we are and what we offer on a one to one basis.
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• TECH TALK
•  CHART WATCH 
•  CURRENT 'MONTHLY' RECOMMENDATION
•  FUTURES WATCH
•  WEEKLY FEATURE
•  FED WATCH
•  COMING EVENTS AND DATA RELEASES

 

TECH TALK by Scott R. Joss (Non member C.T.A)*

DUE TO THE HOLIDAY 'TECK TALK ' BY SCOTT JOSS WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK

CHART WATCH by Scott R. Joss (Non member C.T.A)*

Readers and clients call during the week and ask: What are you watching?

Watching can mean that the markets are developing a 'recommendation' or a chart pattern that has not yet fully developed - or may never develop.

During the course of the week or month it is not uncommon to find an `intra-day, intra-week or intra-month' recommendation that was previously not revealed when this newsletter was written.

Products that currently fit into this 'watch' category are listed below and should be 'watched.'

DUE TO THE HOLIDAY 'CHART WATCH' BY SCOTT JOSS WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK

CURRENT 'MONTHLY' RECOMMENDATIONS
FOR FEBRUARY:

- MARCH TEN YEAR NOTES (TY5H)
- MAY ORANGE JUICE (OJ5K)
- MAY COFFEE (KC5K)
- MARCH JAPANESE YEN (JY5H)
- MARCH CANADIAN DOLLAR (CD5H)

FUTURE WATCH

Future watch will list developing 'monthly' recommendations to watch in February for March use. By listing these products, traders can `feed-forward' with anticipation and focus - centering on products that will provide direction and hopefully, opportunity.
Traders should begin studying the 'daily', 'weekly' and 'monthly' charts for the products listed below. Don't forget between now and the end of the month, some or all of these products may be de-listed.
'Monthly' recommendations will be revealed on the close of business February 28th and sent via email for March use.

- WHEAT
- S&P 500
- NASDAQ 100
- DOW JONES
- CRUDE OIL
- HEATING OIL
- UNLEADED GAS
- COTTON
- ORANGE JUICE
- SUGAR
- FEEDER CATTLE

WEEKLY FEATURE

DJ USDA Report: Cattle Data Called Positive For Prices
CHICAGO (Dow Jones)--The nation's feedlots placed fewer cattle on feed while marketing more animals during January than most analysts expected, according to Friday afternoon's U.S. Department of Agriculture monthly cattle-on-feed report - which raised expectations for higher Chicago Mercantile Exchange live cattle futures prices Tuesday morning.
 
'This is a friendly report,' said Travis Benson, of Crystal River Capital,
who predicted 30- to 50-point higher openings. 'The lower-than-expected January placements should be positive for deferred futures contract prices, while the marketings figure should support the nearby months.'
 
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It is amazing!
 
By Roy Smith 
Market Analyst
 
Sometimes a farmer will ask me why the markets are doing what they are doing and my best answer is 'It was time.' That does not usually satisfy the person who asked the question. However, the reason for a market move is not always obvious to people in the countryside. The market does not always move in a manner that looks rational.
An experience I had last week indicated that a move higher in the grain markets was starting. At the marketing workshop on Tuesday, a farmer in the audience told me that he was tired of waiting for better prices and was going to sell everything he had in commercial storage. The mood in the countryside was decidedly negative the first week of February. This kind of negative psychology is one indicator of a major low.
Adding fuel to the fire was the fact that there were huge speculative short positions. Eventually those positions will be liquidated. When that happens the market is due for an upside correction. Market action this week confirms that these things can cause a big move even when the fundamentals are negative. It is amazing how fast the direction of the market can change in the face of unfavorable supply and demand.
An e-mail I received on Thursday from Brazil indicated that trucks delivering soybeans are lined up at elevators. The writer wondered if that would have any effect on the market. The cash soybean price in the United States went up over 70 cents in the face of last fall's record harvest. It can happen at their harvest also.
CLICK HERE FOR MORE 
 
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The University of Michigan's index of consumer sentiment dropped from 95.5 to 94.2 in February, weaker than expected.  
 
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July soybeans were up Friday with ongoing concerns about dry conditions in southern Brazil. The Brazilian firm, Safras e Mercado, estimated the current soybean crop at 61.2 million tons, less than the USDA's estimate of 63 million tons (1.7 billion bushels).      
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The outlook for a smaller world coffe crop continues to support prices.           
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June crude oil was up Friday, supported by political tensions with Iran and concerns about OPEC cutting production at their March 16th meeting.
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Weather Market Commentary
It was just 9 days ago that the soybean market was trading very close to the five dollar level in trading just after the release of the February USDA crop report. I think that most everyone then has to be amazed that the market closed above the $5.50 level yesterday amidst a flurry of fund short-covering. Current estimates suggest that the funds have covered close to 50,000 contracts worth of short positions since February 8 (when their short position was reported to be just over 78,000 contracts). The catalyst behind this rally has been South American weather, with the market first realizing that growing conditions in far southern Brazil have not been perfect since the middle of December, and then realizing that relief for those areas is still not close at hand. It does not look like the market will be noting a lot of changes in the weather outlook. Most notable about the weather for this weekend through the early to middle parts of next week still looks to be heat. Not that it has not been cool recently; highs yesterday in southern Brazil were well up into the 90s. However, especially Sunday through Tuesday could feature a pretty fair amount of locations getting to the 100 degree mark or a little higher. The rain threat for those areas is still several days away, looking to start late next Thursday or into next Friday (no change from yesterday's outlook).
 
Weather and market report
by Craig Solberg
CLICK HERE FOR MORE
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USDA Drought Monitor
CLICK HERE FOR MORE

FED WATCH

Greenspan Stumped by Low Long Rates; Rates Rise: Caroline Baum
Feb. 16 (Bloomberg) -- If Alan Greenspan says the decline in long-term bond yields in the face of rising official rates is a ``conundrum,'' by all means, let's push them up.
It's hard to find anything else in the Federal Reserve chairman's semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress today, aside from his reiteration that the real federal funds rate is still low, that could be interpreted as bearish for bonds.
To be sure, there was nothing particularly bullish either. Greenspan's testimony was a straight-down-the-middle report card on the economy's health: growth, good; inflation, low; business behavior, cautious; financial market behavior, incautious; Social Security, needs fixing now; challenges facing the economy, significant but manageable.
As for any suggestion as to just how ``measured'' the Fed would be on its march to normalize rates or how much less ``accommodative'' policy has to become before the Fed calls it quits, Greenspan was mum, opting for a generic statement of the Fed's mandate.
The ``surest contribution'' the Fed can make to long-term economic prosperity is to ``pursue its statutory objectives of price stability and maximum sustainable employment -- the latter of which we have learned can best be achieved in the long run by maintaining price stability,'' he said.
Greenspan's refusal to shed any new light on measured and accommodative didn't prevent a market reaction. The initial direction of bond yields was up for reasons that escape this observer (when I figure out why they're so low, I'll move on to the next question).
CLICK HERE FOR MORE
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Greenspan Says He's Willing to Back Tax Increases as U.S. Deficits Balloon
Feb. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan says rising U.S. deficits may have to be addressed with a move he hasn't favored in the past: tax increases.
Greenspan, in testimony before the House Financial Services Committee yesterday, said Congress may have to consider raising taxes to rein in a deficit the Bush administration says will reach $427 billion in the fiscal year ending Sept. 30, topping a record $412 billion last year.
``You're going to have to increase taxes or reduce spending somewhere if we're going to keep the deficit under control,'' Greenspan said.
In past appearances before congressional panels, Greenspan has expressed a preference for spending cuts to balance the budget. His willingness to back tax increases indicates a growing uneasiness with President George W. Bush's fiscal policies, said Barry Bosworth, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, a Washington-based policy research group.
``Since Bush has come in there is just a complete breakdown in the budget process,'' Bosworth said. Greenspan has ``got to be getting alarmed.''
Bush's budget for non-defense, domestic discretionary spending rose 27 percent or $86.3 billion from 2001 to 2004.
Bush's plan to set up private Social Security accounts by borrowing as much as $2 trillion is adding to the chairman's concern, Bosworth said. ``What I think has really got Greenspan nervous is that you will just borrow the money to make up for the privatization of Social Security,'' he said.   
 
CLICK HERE FOR MORE

 

NOTE:

If you do not completely understand this information, you are advised to take NO action until speaking with your Account Executive.

ClearTrade, Inc. may be reached, toll free, at 800-493-4444

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* Recommendations and Newsletter prepared by Scott Joss, Non Member C.T.A.

Scott Joss is a 'non member' CTA and is providing recommendations to ClearTrade, Inc. clients. Scott Joss 'is a principal' of ClearTrade, Inc. and 'is a registered IB member' with the NFA.

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DISCLAIMER:

* COMING EVENTS AND DATA RELEASES:

Calendar provided by Briefing.com, Inc. Data is provided for informational purposes only, and is not intended for trading purposes. Neither ClearTrade, Inc. nor any of its data or content providers (such as Reuters, CSI, and Briefing.com) shall be liable for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.

Market recommendations are strictly the opinion of the writer and are intended solely for informative purposes and are not to be construed, under any circumstances, by implication or otherwise, as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or trade in any commodities or securities herein named. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve substantial risk. In no event should the content of a market letter be construed as a promise that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever.

Unless otherwise indicated, the links presented in this newsletter are in no way affiliated with ClearTrade, Inc. Likewise, sites linked through ClearTrade's newsletter are not necessarily connected with ClearTrade, nor do any such links imply an endorsement by either party.

ClearTrade, Inc. does not necessarily promote or endorse the services or publications described herein. Unless otherwise indicated, ClearTrade Inc. has had no role in the production or review of these products or services and makes no warranty, either expressed or implied, as to their contents, accuracy or performance.

Past results are no indication of future performance. Information provided in this newsletter is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted.
Scott Joss is a 'non member' CTA and is providing recommendations to ClearTrade, Inc. clients. Scott Joss 'is a principal' of ClearTrade, Inc. and 'is a registered IB member' with the NFA.

NOTE: Past results are no indication of future performance. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted.

REPRODUCTION OR REBROADCAST OF ANY PORTION OF THIS INFORMATION IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED WITHOUT THE WRITTEN PERMISSION OF CLEARTRADE, INC.

The contents of this newsletter are copyright 1999-2005, Scott R. Joss/ClearTrade, Inc. *TM. All Rights Reserved.

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