WELCOME TO CLEARTRADE'S NEWSLETTER
ClearTrade's trading recommendations and weekly commodity newsletter was first published in October 1998. Since that time, our research has continued to evolve into an important source of technical insight for many traders. Our goal is to provide traders with a 'game plan' to prepare for the trading day and week ahead.
ClearTrade's technical analyst, Scott Joss, is a veteran futures trader with twenty-eight years experience on and off the trading floor - as a pit trader, account executive handling arbitrage for Smith Barney, former member of the CBOT and presently an IB. Scott prepares technical analysis in selected market groups when an opportunity presents itself and not only develops trading modules on selected trading opportunities but 'feeds-forward', advising traders what to expect and how to react.
 At ClearTrade, we think it’s helpful to speak directly with traders who have requested our research and/or may be interested in establishing an account with us. Understanding your trading needs and goals is important. And we think you should have an opportunity to get to know who we are and what we offer on a one to one basis.
ClearTrade Contact Phone Numbers

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• TECH TALK
•  CHART WATCH 
•  CURRENT 'MONTHLY' RECOMMENDATION
•  FUTURES WATCH
•  WEEKLY FEATURE
•  FED WATCH
•  COMING EVENTS AND DATA RELEASES

 

TECH TALK by Scott R. Joss (Non member C.T.A)*

JUNE S&P 500 (SP5M) 

Last week I began developing my 'game plan' and trading module based on the June contract for the June S&P 500. 

The June S&P has been in a 20-month price advance that began from lows of 975.60 to recent contract highs of 1234.10.

The S&P most recently has been in a 7-month price advance that began from lows of 1065.00 to contract highs of 1234.10.

Currently the S&P has been in a 6-week price advance that began from lows of 1170.00  to contract highs of 1234.10.

There is an unfilled price gap above the current market price between 1249.30 and 1250.80.

There are two unfilled price gaps below the current market price. The first unfilled price gap is between 1186.50 and 1188.90. The second unfilled price gap is between 1179.00 and 1181.50.

For March, the S&P's have a monthly recommendation: Buy When trades 1217.60 - Sell when trades 1188.80.

WHAT DO THE CHARTS LOOK LIKE?

The June S&P between 3/04/04 and 11/02/04 formed a bullish flag.

The highs of the flag were 1164.10 and the lows of the flag were 1065.00.

The all-important upside breakout occurred at 1144.50 on 11/03/04.

The upside objective was 1243.60.

The recent contract highs of 1234.10 were posted on 3/07/05.

Have the S&P's effectively reached their objective or is one more high at 1243.60 still obtainable?  

The June S&P on the daily chart has developed an upward trendline that began from lows of 1070.50 through 1188.90 and violated the trendline at 1203.70 on Friday but closed at 1205.20.

For March, the S&P's have a monthly recommendation: Buy When trades 1217.60 - Sell when trades 1188.80.

On 3/02/05, the S&P posted a monthly buy signal at 1217.60.

On 3/11/05, the S&P posted an intra-day sell signal at 1205.70.

Last week's high was 1234.10.

Last week's low was 1202.50.

Last month's high was 1217.50.

Last month's low was 1188.90.

WHAT TRADERS WERE ADVISED TO DO LAST WEEK

If the S&P were to post a higher weekly high above 1230.20 yet post a close below 1217.60, traders were advised to either establish a short position or enter a resting stop entry order at 1203.40 to establish a short position.

WHAT SHOULD TRADERS DO NEXT WEEK?

Traders who established a short position on the close below 1217.50 are advised to place a stop and reverse resting order above 1218.30.

Traders who established a short position at the 'intra-day' sell signal 1205.70 are advised to place a stop above 1211.40. Also, place a resting stop entry to establish a long position above 1218.30.

If the S&P posts a close below Friday's low of 1202.50, traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing stops for this position only above 1205.70.

If the S&P were to post a monthly sell signal at 1188.80, traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing all stops above 1203.40.

If the S&P were to post a monthly close at or below 1188.80, a change of trend will have occurred. Trader's collective mentality will shift to selling rallies.

Our first objective, if this were to occur, would be the unfilled price gap left below the current market price at 1186.50.

Our second objective, if this were to occur, would be the unfilled price gap left below the current market price at 1179.00.

If the S&P were to close on a weekly basis at or below 1170.00, traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing all stops above 1188.80.

If this were to occur our objective would be 1159.40.

Our long-term objective will be a retest of the original flag breakout, which if touched now would be at 1135.50.

On the flipside.....

If the S&P were to post a weekly close above 1218.30, traders are advised to establish a long position, placing stops below 1217.50, which is the monthly buy signal.

If the S&P were to post a weekly close above 1227.00, which was December's high, traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing stops below 1217.50.

If the S&P were to post a close above contract highs of 1234.10, traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing all stops below 1227.00.

If this were to occur our original objective of 1243.60 should complete the bull flag's measurement.

Conservative traders are advised to use the E-mini S&P as their primary trading vehicle.

DAILY CHART:
http://bohl.minot.com/d_Chart.cgi?SP05M
------------
WEEKLY CHART:
http://bohl.minot.com/w_Chart.cgi?SP

----------------------------------------------------

JUNE JAPANESE YEN (JY5M) 

The Yen is in a 5-week price consolidation, which began from lows of .9459 to highs of .9772.

Until a breakout of this congestion area, the Yen may be in a 3 point trading range.

This should only be traded by aggressive traders. All other traders should wait for a possible monthly recommendation to establish a position or until a close occurs below .9459 or above .9772.

Next week the Bank of Japan meets, which will increase volitiliy.

WHAT DO THE CHARTS LOOK LIKE?

If the Yen were to maintain its current price consolidation between .9459 and .9772, a possible monthly recommendation could develop for April.

On the long-term monthly chart the Yen posted a head and shoulders bottom between 4/30/01 and 8/31/03.

The left shoulder was established between .7962 lows and .8688 highs.

The head developed between .7415 lows and .8368 highs.

The right shoulder developed between .7985 lows and .8665 highs.

The all-important breakout occurred at .8663 on 9/30/03.

The long-term objective from this formation was .9936.

On 1/14/05, the June Yen posted contract highs of .9930.

The long-term objective has been met.

Last month's high was .9772.

Last month's low was .9459.

WHAT TRADERS WERE ADVISED TO DO LAST WEEK

Last week the Yen had a weekly recommendation: Buy when trades .9691 - Sell when trades .9546.

On 3/04/05, the Yen posted an intra-day buy signal at .9629.

On 3/8/05, the Yen posted a daily buy signal at .9643.

On 3/9/05, the Yen posted a weekly buy signal at .9691.

Traders were advised that if the Yen posted a weekly buy signal at .9691, aggressive traders were to establish a long position, placing stops below .9628.

If the Yen posted a close above .9711, traders were advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing stops for this position below .9686.

The Yen closed Friday at .9695.

WHAT SHOULD TRADERS DO NEXT WEEK?

The Yen has a two day coil, which means a major move is
 imminent.

For Monday the Yen has a daily recommendation: buy when trades .9715 - sell when trades .9660.  

Traders who established a long position at the intra-day buy signal at .9629 are advised to move their stops to .9660.

Traders who either added or established a long position at the daily buy signal at .9643 are advised to move their stops to .9660.

Traders who either add or established a long position at the weekly buy signal of .9691 are advised to move their stops to .9660.

If the Yen posts a daily buy signal at .9715, aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing all stops at .9660.

If the Yen posts a close above .9723, aggressive traders are advised to either add to their long position or establish a long position, placing stops for this position below .9691, which was the weekly buy signal.

If the Yen posts a close above .9772, traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing all stops below .9711.

If the Yen posts a close above .9814, traders are advised to move all stops below .9772.
Our first objective will be a challenge of contract highs of .9930.

If the Yen posts a weekly close above .9930, traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing all stops below .9881.

Our long-term objective will be 100.85.

On the flip side....

If the Yen posts a daily sell signal at .9660, aggressive traders are advised to establish a short position, placing stops at .9715.

If the Yen were to post a close below .9620, aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing all stops above .9660.

If the Yen were to post a close below .9566, aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing all stops above .9624.

If the Yen were to post a weekly close below .9495, aggressive traders are advised to move their stops above .9549.

Our first objective will be a challenge of last month's lows of .9459.

If the Yen posts a monthly close below .9459, traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing stops for all positions above .9495.

If this were to occur our objective would be .9279.

Our long-term objective will be .9146.

DAILY CHART:
http://bohl.minot.com/d_Chart.cgi?JY05M
------------
WEEKLY CHART:
http://bohl.minot.com/w_Chart.cgi?JY

----------------------------------------------------

JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR (CD5M) 

The June Canadian had been in a 6-week price consolidation, which began from lows of .7952 to highs of .8184.

Last week the Canadian had a weekly recommendation: Buy when trades .8156 - Sell when trades .8011.

On 3/8/05, the Canadian posted a weekly buy signal at .8156.

On 3/8/05, the Canadian posted a close above last month's high of .8184.

Last week's high was .8345.

Last week's low was .8104.

WHAT TRADERS WERE ADVISED TO DO LAST WEEK

If the Canadian posted a weekly buy signal at .8156, aggressive traders were advised to establish a long position, placing stops below .8081.

If the Canadian posted a weekly close above .8184, traders were advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing all stops below .8156, which was the weekly buy signal.

Our first objective was met, which was to fill a price gap at .8292.

The Canadian closed on Friday at .8308.

WHAT SHOULD TRADERS DO NEXT WEEK?

Traders who established a long position at the weekly buy signal .8156 are advised to move their stops below .8245.

Traders who either added to their existing long position or established a long position at .8185 or higher, are advised to move their stops below .8245.

If the Canadian posts a close above last week's high of .8345, traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing all stops below .8293.

If the Canadian posts a monthly close above .8376, traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing all stops below .8345.

Our objective will be a challenge of June contract highs at .8495.

If the Canadian were to post a monthly close above .8495, traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing all stops below .8451.

If this were to occur our long-term objective would be .8788, which we haven't seen since the end of 1991 when the US Dollar was at 82.31.

DAILY CHART:
http://bohl.minot.com/d_Chart.cgi?CD05M
------------
WEEKLY CHART:
http://bohl.minot.com/w_Chart.cgi?CD

----------------------------------------------------

MAY COFFEE (KC5K)

Last week I wrote on coffee, which was/is only for aggressive traders who are properly capitalized ($30,000 - $50,000).

May Coffee has been in a 28-week price advance that began from lows of 73.30 to current highs of 139.50.

Coffee has been in a 6-week price advance which began from lows of 97.40 to highs of 139.50.

Coffee had an unfilled price gap above the current market price between 132.00 and 134.00, which was filled last week.

The last major highs were on 7/18/00 at 122.00.

The next previous highs were on 12/31/99 at 149.00.

WHAT DID AGGRESSIVE TRADERS DO LAST WEEK

Last week Coffee had a weekly recommendation: Buy when trades 125.15 - Sell when trades 117.95.

Aggressive traders were advised if Coffee posted a weekly buy signal at 125.15, aggressive traders are to establish a long position, placing stops at 117.95.

If Coffee posted a weekly close above last month's high of 126.60, aggressive traders were advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing all stops below 121.75.

If Coffee posted a weekly close above 138.50, aggressive traders were advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing all stops below 127.00.

Our first objective was met last week at 132.50.

Coffee closed Friday at 136.30.

Last week's high was 139.50.

Last week's low was 125.00.

WHAT SHOULD AGGRESSIVE TRADERS DO NEXT WEEK?

Traders who established a long position at the weekly buy signal 125.15 are advised to move stops below 129.25.

Traders who either added to their existing long position at 126.60 or higher are advised to move stops for this position below 129.25.

If coffee posts a close above last week's highs of 139.50, traders are advised to watch for major resistance at the 141.15 level. Traders are advised to either take profits or tighten all stops below 133.00.

If coffee posts a monthly close above the 141.15 resistance, our next objective will be a challenge of old highs of 149.00

If Coffee posts a monthly close above old highs of 149.00, aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing all stops below 141.15.

If this were to occur our next objective will be 166.90, which were old highs posted on 1/31/89.

DAILY CHART:
http://bohl.minot.com/d_Chart.cgi?KC05K
------------
WEEKLY CHART:
http://bohl.minot.com/w_Chart.cgi?KC

----------------------------------------------------

JUNE TEN YEAR NOTE (TY5M)

The June Note has been in a 4-week price decline, which began from highs of 112-160 to recent lows of 108-180.

10-Year Notes are currently below their 100-day and 200-day moving averages, which are at 110-310 and 109-220, respectively.

For Monday, the Notes have a daily recommendation: Buy When trades 109-070 - Sell when trades 108-190.

WHAT DO THE CHARTS LOOK LIKE?

The June Notes on the daily chart have a downward trend line that began from highs of 112-150 through highs of 110-115 and if were touched today would be at 109-240.

The long-term monthly chart still shows the Notes in a long-term uptrend that has been in place since 1994.

The long-term upward trend line began from lows of 61-090 through lows of 93-070 and if touched today would be at 103-185.

On 3/09/05, the Note posted an intra-weekly sell signal at 109-110.

Last week's high was 110-115.

Last week's low was 108-180.

Last month's high was 112-160.

Last month's low was 109-205.

WHAT WERE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO LAST WEDNESDAY?

Traders were advised to establish a short position at 109-110, placing stops at 109-250.

WHAT SHOULD TRADERS DO NEXT WEEK?

Traders who established a short position at 109-110 or lower are advised to leave their stop at 109-25.

If Notes post a daily sell signal at 108-190, traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing stops for this position only at 109-125.

If Notes post a close below last week's lows of 108-180, traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing stops at 109-070.

If Notes post a close below 108-030, traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing stops for this position only above 108-195, which were Friday's lows.

If Notes post a weekly close below 107-255, traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing all stops above 108-035.

Our objective will be a challenge of previous lows of 107-000.

Our second objective will be 106-210.

Our long-term objective will be a challenge of the major upward trendline at 103-185.

If the Notes were to ever have multiple monthly closes below the 103-000 level, well... there isn't much support except 101-075 and 93-065.

On the flip side....

If Notes were to post a daily buy signal at 109-070, traders are advised not to establish a long position, but should place a resting sell stop at 108-175 to establish a short position. If this were to occur traders should then place a stop order above 109-120.

If the Notes were to close on a weekly basis above 109-250, traders should place a resting buy stop at 110-120 to establish a long position. If The resting buy stop were to be filled, traders should place a sell stop below 109-205.

If the Notes were to post a close above 110-280, traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing all stops below 110-115.

If this were to occur our objective would be 111-040.

DAILY CHART:
http://bohl.minot.com/d_Chart.cgi?TY05M
------------
WEEKLY CHART:
http://bohl.minot.com/w_Chart.cgi?TY

----------------------------------------------------

MAY CORN (C5K)

May corn has been in a 4-week price advance, which began from lows 202.00 to recent highs of 225.00.

If corn were to maintain its current price between 202.00 and 225.00, a possible monthly recommendation could develop for April.

Corn currently is above its 100-day moving average at 213.25.

Corn's 200-day moving average is at 235.50.

Corn has seven unfilled price gaps above the current market price. The most recent is between 239.50 and 240.75. The next unfilled gap is between 242.50 and 245.00.

WHAT DO THE CHARTS LOOK LIKE?

Corn on the long-term weekly and monthly charts have major resistance at 235.00.

Major support on both these long-term charts are at 203.75.

Last week's high was 225.00.

Last week's low was 211.75.

Last month's high was 225.00.

Last month's low was 202.00.

WHAT SHOULD TRADERS DO NEXT WEEK?

If corn posts a close above 226.00, traders are advised to establish a long position, placing stops at 211.50.

If corn posts a close above 228.00, traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing stops below 217.50.

If corn posts a close above 236.50, traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing stops for this position only below 225.00.

Our first objective will be to fill the first unfilled gap at 240.75.

If corn posts a close above 242.75, traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing all stops below 235.75.

If corn posts a close above 247.50, traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing all stops below 242.75.

Our objective will be to fill the third gap between 247.50 and 250.00.

On the flip side....

If corn were to post a close below 211.75, traders are advised not to establish a short position, but should place a resting sell stop at 201.75 to establish a short position. If this were to occur traders should then place a stop order above 211.75.

Our long-term objective would be 179.00.

DAILY CHART:
http://bohl.minot.com/d_Chart.cgi?C05K
------------
WEEKLY CHART:
http://bohl.minot.com/w_Chart.cgi?CK

CHART WATCH by Scott R. Joss (Non member C.T.A)*

Readers and clients call during the week and ask: What are you watching?

Watching can mean that the markets are developing a 'recommendation' or a chart pattern that has not yet fully developed - or may never develop.

During the course of the week or month it is not uncommon to find an `intra-day, intra-week or intra-month' recommendation that was previously not revealed when this newsletter was written.

Products that currently fit into this 'watch' category are listed below and should be 'watched.'

MAY SUGAR (SB5K) 
Sugar will remain on the 'chart watch' list for now.
Sugar had been in a twelve-month price advance that began from lows of 6.18 (2/13/04) to recent highs of 9.58 (1/26/05).
Several weeks ago I wrote a 'game-plan' and trading module for May sugar but put it on hold because of the Global Sugar conference in Geneva Switzerland on April 14-15th.
For March sugar has a monthly recommendation: Buy when trades 9.54 - Sell when trades 8.95. 
 
On 2/14/05, Sugar posted a daily sell signal at 9.37.
On 2/16/04, Sugar posted a weekly sell signal at 9.28.
On 3/03/05, Sugar posted a monthly sell signal at 8.95.
 
Direction and momentum appear to be lined up for downward price pressure to 8.36.
However, there maybe an outside probability that sugar could post its monthly buy signal at 9.54. Stranger things have happened so we must prepare with a game plan if an intra-monthly buy signal were to occur.
Conservative traders are advised to place resting buy stop orders at the monthly buy signal at 9.54.
On 3/11/05, sugar posted a daily buy signal at 9.06.
Aggressive traders were advised to establish a long position, placing stops at 8.93.
If sugar posts a close above 9.25, aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing stops at 8.93.
If sugar posts a close above 9.40, aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing all stops below 9.06.
If sugar posts a monthly buy signal at 9.54, traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing all stops below 9.40.
If this intra-monthly buy signal were to occur our objective will be 10.31.
If sugar ever closed above 11.40, our next upside objective would be 14.30.
On the flipside....
If sugar posts a monthly close below 8.95, traders are to not establish a short position until a close below 8.85 occurs.
If sugar were to post a monthly close below 8.85, traders are advised to establish a short position, placing stops above 8.95.
If sugar were to post a close below 8.44, traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing all stops above 8.84.
If this were to occur our objective would be 7.53, which were recent lows.
DAILY CHART:
http://bohl.minot.com/d_Chart.cgi?SB05K
------------
WEEKLY CHART:
http://bohl.minot.com/w_Chart.cgi?SB
----------------------------------------------------
JUNE NASDAQ (ND5M) -
Next week I will begin developing a trading plan for the June Nasdaq, which is developing monthly recommendations for April.
DAILY CHART:
http://bohl.minot.com/d_Chart.cgi?ND05M
------------
WEEKLY CHART:
http://bohl.minot.com/w_Chart.cgi?ND
----------------------------------------------------
JULY LUMBER (LB5N)
Next week I will begin developing a trading plan for the July Lumber, which is developing monthly recommendations for April.
DAILY CHART:
http://bohl.minot.com/d_Chart.cgi?LB05N
------------
WEEKLY CHART:
http://bohl.minot.com/w_Chart.cgi?LB

CURRENT 'MONTHLY' RECOMMENDATIONS
FOR MARCH:

- JUNE S&P 500 (SP5M)
- JUNE NASDAQ 100 (NQ5M)
- JUNE DOW JONES (DJ5M)
- MAY SUGAR (SB5K)
- MAY FEEDER CATTLE (FC5K)

FUTURE WATCH

Future watch will list developing 'monthly' recommendations to watch in March for April use. By listing these products, traders can `feed-forward' with anticipation and focus - centering on products that will provide direction and hopefully, opportunity.
Traders should begin studying the 'daily', 'weekly' and 'monthly' charts for the products listed below. Don't forget between now and the end of the month, some or all of these products may be de-listed.
'Monthly' recommendations will be revealed on the close of business March 31st and sent via email for April use.

- JULY CORN
- JULY OATS
- JUNE NASDAQ
- JULY LUMBER
- JULY PORK BELLIES
- JUNE JAPANESE YEN

WEEKLY FEATURE

Brazil tour complete, insights shared
 
Ron & Sue Mortensen 
Advantage Ag Strategies, Ltd.
 
A very tired group is in the process of stumbling home after an educational tour of the state of Mato Grosso in Brazil. Ron's memories of the experience include:
 
The amazed expression on people's faces (especially farmers) when they see Asian soybean rust and the associated damage for the first time. Plus the expression continues when they hear farmers and crop specialists in Mato Grosso discuss spraying fungicides four to six times.
the ability of Asian soybean rust to survive in drier conditions than what many people had been led to believe. The fields with spider mites and soybean rust continue to be talked about days after the group first saw them.
the serious financial condition of many of these Brazilian farmers, faced with their second bad year in a row. Higher input costs, drought reduced yields in the south, high fungicide costs in the north and low prices have all come together to pressure their pocketbooks.
USDA reports contain few surprises
The substantial commodity fund buying continued today, but not necessarily due to information in this morning's USDA supply/demand report. Many numbers were as expected -- bigger bean exports, smaller crush, smaller Brazil crop size, smaller corn exports, etc.
 
--------------------------------
Conditions in southern Brazil remain hot and dry. Dow Jones Newswires quoted Brazilian analysts as saying that the soybean crop would only total 53 million tons (1.95 b. bu.), less than the USDA's 63 million ton (2.31 b. bu.) estimate.
  
---------------------------------
U.S. exports were up $.4 billion in January to $100.8 billion while imports were up $2.9 billion to $159.1 billion. The resulting trade deficit (capital surplus) was $58.3 billion, slightly more than expected. The U.S. dollar was steady to lower against most currencies.       
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The International Energy Agency increased their estimate of world oil demand to 84.3 million barrels per day in 2005. That is still less than the U.S. Department of Energy's 84.7 million barrel per day estimate.             
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The USDA just estimated Brazil's soybean crop at 59.0 million tons, but on Friday Brazil's Vegetable Oils Industry Association said that the crop is only 53.9 million tons (1.98 b.bu.). Also, southern Brazil is still said to be dry with chances for light showers coming on Sunday through Tuesday. 
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Officials in Japan's Food Safety Commission agreed that cows under 20 months of age should not be required to undergo testing for mad cow disease. The decision puts Japan one step closer to relaxing its ban on U.S. beef. 
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July cocoa closed up $51 at $1,818, the highest in over a year, boosted by talk that the civil war in the Ivory Coast is about to resume and the liklihood of a smaller cocoa crop this year.
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Dow Jones Newswires reported that Colombia expects to have another 11.5 million (60-kg) bag coffee crop in 2005-2006.
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ED&F Man said that they expect global sugar stocks to fall 5 million tons by the end of 2004-2005. This is roughly similar to the USDA's estimate of a 4.8 million ton drop in ending stocks.
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July orange juice ended up .0160 at $1.0140 after Thursdays limit-up close. Last week, the USDA reduced the Florida orange crop estimate by 9 million boxes to 153 million boxes, the smallest in 13 years.
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Weather Market Commentary
Friday, March 11, 2005
Unless we were to see a very wet weather pattern develop during the harvest period, I think that we are coming to the end of the time period when the soybean market pays a lot of attention to South American weather. First of all, we need to keep in mind what time of year it is. By mid-March, the markets normally turn their attention to other factors, such as the key March Planting Intentions report and the start of U.S. fieldwork that is only a few weeks away. Besides, if the forecast verifies as shown this morning, we are going to bring some relief to the drought in southern Brazil and we are going to see enough rain fall in especially northern growing areas of Argentina to largely 'make' their soybean crop. The big storm system that brought all sorts of rain to Argentina earlier this week split in two, with one piece staying just off the west coast of South America. That energy will start to move east later today, and should bring especially northern parts of the Argentine growing areas some locally heavy rains for later tonight and into tomorrow. Those rains then work into southern Brazil for late tomorrow night through Sunday night, and look to bring widespread rain to that region. Rio Grande do Sul will probably see the best amounts, but good totals should also be seen in Paraguay, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Parana. It should be the best rain that those areas have seen in well over a month, and will serve to cool temperatures (after more hot readings are recorded in southern Brazil for today and tomorrow).
Weather and market report
by Craig Solberg
CLICK HERE FOR MORE
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USDA Drought Monitor
CLICK HERE FOR MORE

FED WATCH

Asian Central Banks Play Chicken With the Dollar: Caroline Baum
March 11 (Bloomberg) -- Asian central banks are poised on the edge a cliff. Who will be the first to jump?
Late last month, traders pummeled the dollar when they learned South Korea's central bank was looking to boost returns on its foreign-exchange reserves with non-U.S. government bonds.
Within hours of the revelation, courtesy of an annual report to the legislature that was hyped by the media, the Bank of Korea was forced to issue a press release saying it had no plan to sell dollars.
Fast forward two weeks, and China's central bank governor made noises about dropping the yuan's peg to the dollar in favor of a basket of currencies. China's finance ministry countered with an opaque statement -- something about keeping the currency stable.
The same day, the Japanese government found itself in a similar predicament of having to appease foreign-exchange markets by contradicting itself. Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi told the budget committee of the upper house of parliament that Japan needed to diversify its foreign-exchange reserves, which at $840.6 billion are the world's largest and are held mostly in U.S. dollars.
This time, it took less than an hour for a no-name Ministry of Finance official to issue a we-didn't-mean-it statement. The Prime Minister was speaking generically, the nameless official said. 
 
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U.S. Current Account Deficit Is No Crisis, Federal Reserve Officials Say
 
March 11 (Bloomberg) -- The record U.S. current account deficit will probably correct itself without causing major problems for the world's biggest economy, according to Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and Governor Ben Bernanke.
The central bank policy makers' comments came hours before the government reported the U.S. trade deficit widened 4.5 percent in January to $58.3 billion in January, the second- highest ever.
``Should globalization continue unfettered and thereby create an ever-more flexible international financial system, history suggests that current account imbalances will be defused with modest risk of disruption,'' Greenspan said in a speech at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York last night.
The U.S. current account deficit, the broadest measure of trade because it includes income from investments and transfer payment, was a record $164.7 billion in the third quarter. It widened to $183 billion in the fourth quarter, according to the median of 23 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The Commerce Department reports on the current account March 16.
``The underlying sources of the U.S. current account deficit appear to be medium term or even long term in nature, suggesting that the situation will eventually begin to improve, although a return to approximate balance will take some time,'' Bernanke, 51, said in a speech to the Virginia Association of Economists in Richmond yesterday. ``I see no reason why the whole process should not proceed smoothly.''     
 
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