WELCOME TO CLEARTRADE'S NEWSLETTER
ClearTrade's trading recommendations and weekly commodity newsletter was first published in October 1998. Since that time, our research has continued to evolve into an important source of technical insight for many traders. Our goal is to provide traders with a 'game plan' to prepare for the trading day and week ahead.
ClearTrade's technical analyst, Scott Joss, is a veteran futures trader with twenty-eight years experience on and off the trading floor - as a pit trader, account executive handling arbitrage for Smith Barney, former member of the CBOT and presently an IB. Scott prepares technical analysis in selected market groups when an opportunity presents itself and not only develops trading modules on selected trading opportunities but 'feeds-forward', advising traders what to expect and how to react.
 At ClearTrade, we think it’s helpful to speak directly with traders who have requested our research and/or may be interested in establishing an account with us. Understanding your trading needs and goals is important. And we think you should have an opportunity to get to know who we are and what we offer on a one to one basis.
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• TECH TALK
•  CHART WATCH 
•  CURRENT 'MONTHLY' RECOMMENDATION
•  FUTURES WATCH
•  COMING EVENTS AND DATA RELEASES

TECH TALK by Scott R. Joss (Non member C.T.A)*

JUNE S&P 500 (SP5M)
The June S&P has been in a 4-week price decline that began from contract highs of 1234.10 to recent lows of 1166.80.
Recently, the S&P has rebounded from lows of 1166.80 to highs of 1195.70.
There is one unfilled price gap above the current market price between 1199.50 and 1201.80.
There is one unfilled price gap below the current market price between 1039.20 and 1042.30.
In March, the S&P had a monthly recommendation: Buy When trades 1217.60 - Sell when trades 1188.80.
On the close of business March 31, the S&P 500 settled at 1183.90.
The S&P must continue to close on a weekly - but more importantly - on a monthly basis below 1188.80.
Friday, the S&P closed at 1183.00.
WHAT DO THE CHARTS LOOK LIKE?
I’ve discussed for several week’s the possible implications if the S&P were to close at or below the 1188.80 price level on March 31. Let’s review why this close was all-important.
The implication was that a close at or below this significant price level of 1188.80 was a change in trend.
Why a change in trend?
The June S&P for February posted monthly highs of 1217.50 and lows of 1188.90.
The June S&P for March posted monthly contract highs of 1234.10 and lows of 1166.80 and closed below the previous month’s low of 1188.90.
What all this means is the June S&P posted not only higher highs than the previous month, but also contract highs. Then, the S&P posted a lower low than the previous month and settled below the previous months low.
This price action not only posted an ‘intra-monthly’ sell signal, but also - because it was posted from contract highs - this constitutes a change in trend.
I posed the question last week - does this mean the S&P will go straight down from the current price level?
My answer was maybe yes and maybe no.
I further explained that while we cannot predict price movement - because prices move up/down probing for direction, what we can predict is a changing of market trend.
The S&P’s on the daily chart continues to form a bearish ‘M’ formation.
The first leg of the bearish ‘M’ formation began from lows of 1093.90 (10/25/04) to highs of 1227.00 (12/30/04).
The middle of the ’M’ formation was established on 1/24/05 at 1170.00.
The second leg down of the ’M’ formation began from contract highs of 1234.10 (3/07/05) to recent lows of 1166.80 (3/29/05).
Major upside resistance is still at 1188.90.
On Friday the S&P posted a key reversal pair down on the daily bar chart between 1183.00 lows and 1195.70 highs.
The daily bar chart shows the S&P has posted several lows over the last 5-months supporting the now established ‘M’ formation.
On 11/08/04, the first low of 1167.50 was posted.
On 1/24/05, the second low - which is the middle of the ‘M’ - was posted at 1170.00.
On 3/29/05, the most recent low of 1166.80 was posted.
Support continues to prop the market up between 1164.40 and 1170.00.
The S&P closed Friday at 1183.00
Last week's high was 1195.70.
Last week's low was 1170.80.
Last month's high was 1234.10.
Last month's low was 1166.80.
WHAT TRADERS WERE INFORMED LAST MONDAY:
Traders were informed of a bearish ‘broadening formation’ that was developing.
This bearish ‘broadening formation’ is more visible to the eye on the cash Dow Jones and Dow Jones futures charts.
Once traders were informed of this formation, they were advised to either exit their trade or move their stop to higher price levels.
What is a ‘broadening formation’?
The broadening formation is relatively rare.
It is actually an inverted triangle or triangle turned backwards. Trendlines diverge in this formation, creating a picture that looks like an expanding triangle.
The volume tends to expand along with the wider price swings. This situation represents a market that is out of control and unusually emotional. Because this pattern also represents an unusual amount of public participation, it most often occurs at major market tops. Therefore, the expanding pattern is usually a bearish formation.
The formation is also referred to as a ’five-point reversal pattern’ because of its three successively higher peaks and two declining troughs. While the third peak usually moves higher than the first two peaks, the last peak will, on occasion, either stop at the top of the second peak or not reach it. The violation of the second trough completes the pattern.
What does all of this mean for the S&P?
The S&P posted three higher highs. The first high was established at 1184.20 on 3/24/05. The second high was established at 1193.50 on 4/1/05. In addition, the third high was established last week at 1197.50, which was also the 100-day moving average.
The S&P posted two lower lows. The first low was established at 1168.80 on 3/23/05. The second low was established at 1166.80 on 3/29/05.
WHAT SHOULD TRADERS DO NEXT WEEK?
Traders who established a short position on the ‘intra-day’ sell signal of 1182.20 or below are advised to place their stops above 1195.70, which was the third posted high.
If S&P prices were to advance toward the ‘monthly’ sell signal of 1188.90, traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing stops above last week’s high of 1195.70.
If the S&P were to post a new low from last week’s low of 1183.00, traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing stops above 1195.70.
If the S&P were to post a close below 1170.80, traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing stops for this position only above 1183.00.
If the S&P were to settle on a weekly basis below 1166.80, traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing all stops above 1183.00.
If the S&P were to settle on a weekly basis below 1153.10, traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing all stops above 1166.80.
If this were to occur, our first objective would be 1140.10.
Our long-term objective from the ‘M’ measurement will be 1105.90.
On the flipside...
If the S&P were to post a lower weekly low than last week‘s low of 1170.80 yet post a weekly close above last week‘s high of 1195.70, traders are advised to sit on the sidelines. The implication of an ’intra-weekly’ buy signal may be the S&P would fill the previously mentioned unfilled price gap above the current market price between 1199.50 and 1201.80.
Conservative traders are advised to use the E-mini S&P as their primary trading vehicle.
DAILY CHART:
http://bohl.minot.com/d_Chart.cgi?SP05M
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WEEKLY CHART:
http://bohl.minot.com/w_Chart.cgi?SP
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JUNE TEN YEAR NOTES (TY5M)
Notes have been in a nine-week price decline, which began from highs of 112-160 to lows of 107-265.
Recently, Notes have rebounded from lows of 107-265 to highs of 110-020, which was almost a 50% retracement from 112-160 highs to 107-265 lows. The 50% retracement is at 110-050.
Notes have an unfilled price gap above the current market price between 110-020 and 110-040, which is the 50% retracement.
Notes have an unfilled price gap below the current market price between 108-115 and 108-125.
WHAT DO THE CHARTS LOOK LIKE?
The June Note on the daily chart had a downward trendline that began from highs of 112-155 through highs of 109-160.
On 3/31/05, Notes posted a close above this downward trendline.
On Friday, Notes posted a close below the aforementioned trendline.
The long-term monthly chart shows the Notes still in a long-term upward trend that has been in place since 1994.
The long-term upward trendline began from lows of 61-090 through lows of 93-070 and if touched today would be at 103-250.
On 3/09/05, the Note posted an intra-weekly sell signal at 109-110.
On 4/07/05, Notes posted an ‘intra-day’ sell signal at 109-165.
If Notes could establish a trading range above 107-265 yet below 110-115 between now and the close of business April 30th, a monthly recommendation would develop for May. If this were to occur, traders will be advised what to do via the May 1st newsletter.
For next week Notes have a weekly recommendation: Buy when trades 110-010 - Sell when trades 109-030.
Last week's high was 110-000.
Last week's low was 109-040.
Last month's high was 110-115.
Last month's low was 107-265.
WHAT SHOULD TRADERS DO NEXT WEEK?
Traders who established a short position at or below the ‘intra-day’ sell signal at 109-165 are advised to move their stops either to the weekly buy signal at 110-010 or above last month’s high of 110-115. This decision should be based on individual risk tolerance and account equity ratio.
If Notes were to trade back to the ‘intra-day’ sell signal at 109-165, traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing stops as explained above.
If Notes were to post a weekly sell signal at 109-030, traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing all stops at 110-010.
If Notes post a close below 108-270, traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing all stops at 110-010.
Our objective will be the unfilled gap between 108-115 and 108-125.
If Notes post a close below 108-115, traders should prepare for an assault on recent lows of 107-265. Traders are also advised to move stops above 109-030.
If Notes were to post a weekly close below 107-265, traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing all stops above 108-125.
Our next objective will be a challenge of previous lows of 107-000.
On the flip side....
If Notes were to first post a weekly sell signal at 109-030 yet prices advance above 109-215, traders should prepare by having placed their resting buy stops exit at either 110-010 or 110-120.
If Notes were to first post a weekly buy signal a 110-010, traders are not advised to establish a long position, however traders should place resting sell stop orders at 109-030 to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position.
If this were to occur, traders are advised to place stops at 110-010.
If Notes were to post a weekly close above last month’s high of 110-115, traders are advised to establish a long position, placing stops below 109-215.
If Notes were to post a close above 110-280, traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing all stops below 110-010.
Our objective if this were to occur would be 111-050.
Remember, if notes cannot post a lower low than 107-265 or a higher high than 110-115 by the close of business April 30th , then the Notes will have posted a monthly recommendation for May.
DAILY CHART:
http://bohl.minot.com/d_Chart.cgi?TY05M
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WEEKLY CHART:
------------
WEEKLY CHART:
http://bohl.minot.com/w_Chart.cgi?TY
----------------------------------------------------
MAY SILVER (SI5K)
Traders who received my weekly recommendations, please note that the trade recommendation stated July Silver. However, it should have read May Silver.
May Silver has a weekly recommendation for next week: Buy when trades 718.00 - Sell when trades 691.50.
May Silver has been in a four-week price decline that began from highs of 768.00 to lows of 683.00.
Recently, Silver prices have rebounded from lows of 683.00 to highs of 722.50.
Silver has three unfilled price gaps above the current market price. The first is between 722.50 and 728.50. The second is between 768.00 and 791.00. The third is between 796.50 and 799.00.
If Silver could establish a trading range above 683.00 yet below 768.00 between now and the close of business April 30th, a monthly recommendation would develop for May 1st. If this were to occur, traders will be advised what to do via the May 1st newsletter.
Silver closed Friday at 715.00.
Last week's high was 717.50.
Last week's low was 692.00.
Last month's high was 768.00.
Last month's low was 683.00.
WHAT DO THE CHARTS LOOK LIKE?
Silver developed a ‘double top’ between 2/14/05 and 3/18/05.
The first top was established at 761.00.
The second top was established at 768.00.
The double top resembled an ‘M’ formation.
The middle of the ‘M’ was at 718.00.
Our downside projection was 668.00.
On 3/28/05, Silver posted a low of 683.00 - then bounced to 722.50.
Resistance is at 718.00, which was the middle of the ‘M‘ formation.
It appears Silver is either developing a bear flag to go lower or an ascending right triangle to move higher.
WHAT SHOULD TRADERS DO NEXT WEEK?
Silver has a weekly recommendation for next week: Buy when trades 718.00 - Sell when trades 691.50.
If Silver were to first post a weekly buy signal at 718.00, aggressive traders are advised to establish a long position, placing a resting stop and reverse order at 691.50.
If Silver were to post a close above 722.50, aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing stops for this position below 718.00.
Our objective will be the unfilled gap between 726.00 and 728.50.
If Silver posts a weekly close above 730.00, aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing all stops below 722.50.
Our next objective will be a challenge of old highs at 741.00.
If Silver posts a weekly close above 741.00, aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing all stops below 730.00.
Our next objective will be 762.00.
On the flipside….
If Silver were to first post a weekly sell signal at 691.50, aggressive traders are advised to establish a short position, placing a resting stop and reverse order at 718.00.
Our first objective will be a challenge of recent lows at 683.00.
If Silver were to post a close below lows of 683.00, all traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing stops for this position above 691.50.
If this were to occur, our objective will be 668.00.
If Silver posts a weekly close below 663.00, aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing all stops above 683.00.
Our next objective will be 643.50.
Remember, if Silver cannot post a lower low than 683.00 or a higher high than 768.00 by the close of business April 30, then Silver will have posted a monthly recommendation for May.
DAILY CHART:
http://bohl.minot.com/d_Chart.cgi?SI05K
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WEEKLY CHART:
http://bohl.minot.com/w_Chart.cgi?SI
----------------------------------------------------
JULY COTTON (CT5N)
Traders who received my weekly recommendations, please note that the trade recommendation stated May Cotton. However, it should be July Cotton because of the current contract rollover in volume.
July Cotton has a weekly recommendation for next week: Buy when trades 55.01 - Sell when trades 52.79.
July Cotton has been in a fourteen-week price advance that began from lows of 44.95 to recent highs of 55.95.
Recently, Cotton has been in a volatile trading range between 50.53 lows and 55.95 highs.
Cotton has several unfilled price gaps above the current market price. The first most recent gap is between 55.95 and 56.40. The second most recent gap is between 57.00 and 57.30.
Cotton has two unfilled price gaps below the current market price. The first most recent gap is between 48.55 and 48.80. The second most recent gap is between 44.35 and 44.60.
If Cotton could establish a trading range above 50.53, yet below 55.95 between now and the close of business April 30th, a monthly recommendation would develop for May. If this were to occur, traders will be advised what to do via the May 1 newsletter.
Cotton closed Friday at 54.95.
Last week's high was 55.00.
Last week's low was 52.80.
Last month's high was 55.95.
Last month's low was 50.50.
WHAT DO THE CHARTS LOOK LIKE?
Cotton is above its 100-day moving average at 49.62 and 200-day moving average at 48.27.
If cotton can maintain its current foothold above 50.53 until the end of the month, it is possible the 100-day moving average will converge with the 200-day moving average. If the 200-day moving averages can over take the 100-day moving average, Cotton will have its first official bull signal since 4/11/02.
The long-term weekly chart had a bearish ‘V’ top, which began from highs of 84.80 (10/31/03). On 2/25/05, Cotton broke through the downward trendline at 47.50.
The breakout from the bearish ‘V’ top is reminiscent of when Crude Oil broke its downward trendline from its ‘V’ top in 2002 at 25.50.
WHAT SHOULD TRADERS DO NEXT WEEK?
Cotton has a weekly recommendation for next week: Buy when trades 55.01 - Sell when trades 52.79.
If Cotton were to first post a weekly buy signal at 55.01, traders are advised to establish a long position, placing a resting stop and reverse order at 52.79.
If Cotton were to post a close above 55.95, traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing stops for this position below 55.01.
If this were to occur, traders who established a long position at 55.01 should move stops below 53.65.
If this were to occur, our first objective will be the first unfilled gap between 55.95 and 56.40.
If Cotton were to post a weekly close above 56.40, traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing stops below 55.01.
Our next objective would be the unfilled gap between 57.00 and 57.30.
If Cotton were to post a weekly close above old highs of 58.10, traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing stops below 55.95.
Our next objective would be 61.37.
On the flipside….
If Cotton were to first post a weekly sell signal at 52.79, traders are advised to not establish a short position - however, place a resting stop order at 55.01 to establish a long position.
If the resting buy stop were to be executed, traders should again follow the above trading module.
If Cotton were to first post a weekly buy signal at 55.01 then post its weekly sell signal at 52.79, traders are advised to establish a short position, placing stop and reverse orders at 55.01.
Our first objective if this were to occur would be 48.25
If Cotton were to post a weekly close below last month’s low of 50.53, traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing all stops above 52.79.
OR -
If Cotton were to first post a weekly sell signal at 52.79 and then post a weekly close below last month’s low of 50.53, traders are advised to establish a short position, placing stops above 52.79.
If this were to occur, our objective will be 45.11.
Remember, if Cotton cannot post a lower low than 50.53 or a higher high than 55.95 by the close of business April 30th,, then Cotton will have posted a monthly recommendation for May.
DAILY CHART:
http://bohl.minot.com/d_Chart.cgi?CT05N
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WEEKLY CHART:
http://bohl.minot.com/w_Chart.cgi?CT

CHART WATCH by Scott R. Joss (Non member C.T.A)*

Readers and clients call during the week and ask: What are you watching?

Watching can mean that the markets are developing a 'recommendation' or a chart pattern that has not yet fully developed - or may never develop.

During the course of the week or month it is not uncommon to find an `intra-day, intra-week or intra-month' recommendation that was previously not revealed when this newsletter was written.

Products that currently fit into this 'watch' category are listed below and should be 'watched.'

MAY COPPER (HG5K)
Copper continues its place in the ‘chart watch’ section because of an extended price consolidation.
A potential breakout may occur tomorrow or in several weeks.
If Copper can continue to trade within its current trading range between 144.30 lows and 152.10 highs between now and the close of business April 30th, a monthly recommendation would develop for May. If this were to occur, traders will be advised what to do via the May 1st newsletter.
I discussed last week that Copper has been in a two-year price advance that began from lows of 77.30 to recent highs of 152.10.
Recently, Copper has been in a 6-week price consolidation between 144.30 lows and 152.10 highs.
Until copper can close on a weekly basis either below 144.30 or above 152.10, a trading range has been established.
Last week's high was 151.40.
Last week's low was 146.45.
Last month's high was 152.10.
Last month's low was 144.30.
Last week I advised aggressive traders to play both sides of the range until a breakout occurs.
Conservative traders were to sit on the sidelines and wait for a trading opportunity.
For next week, Copper has a weekly recommendation: Buy when trades 151.45 - Sell when trades 146.40.
WHAT SHOULD TRADERS DO NEXT WEEK?
If Copper posts its weekly buy signal at 151.45, aggressive and conservative traders are advised to wait for a close above 152.10 to establish a long position. If this were to occur, traders are advised to place a resting stop and reverse order at 146.45.
If copper maintains its close above 152.10, our first objective will be a challenge of 1988 highs at 158.50.
However, if copper does not to continue to close above 152.10 and the resting sell stop and reverse orders were executed at 146.45 - effectively leaving traders short, traders are then advised to place a stop at 151.45.
On the flipside…
If Copper posts its weekly sell signal at 146.10, traders are advised to not establish a short position - however, place resting buy stop orders at 151.45.
If the resting buy stop orders at 151.45 were executed - effectively leaving traders long, traders are advised to place a stop at 146.10.
OR -
If Copper posts a close below 144.30, traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing all stops above 146.10.
If this were to occur, our objective would be 136.50.
DAILY CHART:
http://bohl.minot.com/d_Chart.cgi?HG5K
------------
WEEKLY CHART:
http://bohl.minot.com/w_Chart.cgi?HG

CURRENT 'MONTHLY' RECOMMENDATIONS
FOR APRIL:

- NO MONTHLY RECOMMENDATIONS

FUTURE WATCH

Future watch will list developing 'monthly' recommendations to watch in April for May use. By listing these products, traders can `feed-forward' with anticipation and focus - centering on products that will provide direction and hopefully, opportunity.
Traders should begin studying the 'daily', 'weekly' and 'monthly' charts for the products listed below. Don't forget between now and the end of the month, some or all of these products may be de-listed.
'Monthly' recommendations will be revealed on the close of business April 30th and sent via email for May use.
 
- Potential monthly recommendations for May will be listed next week.

NOTE:

If you do not completely understand this information, you are advised to take NO action until speaking with your Account Executive.

ClearTrade, Inc. may be reached at 800-493-4444

====================================

* Recommendations and Newsletter prepared by Scott Joss, Non- Member C.T.A.

Scott Joss is a 'non member' CTA and is providing recommendations to ClearTrade, Inc. clients. Scott Joss 'is a principal' of ClearTrade, Inc. and 'is a registered IB member' with the NFA.

====================================

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====================================

DISCLAIMER:

* COMING EVENTS AND DATA RELEASES:

Calendar provided by Briefing.com, Inc. Data is provided for informational purposes only, and is not intended for trading purposes. Neither ClearTrade, Inc. nor any of its data or content providers (such as Reuters, CSI, and Briefing.com) shall be liable for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.

Market recommendations are strictly the opinion of the writer and are intended solely for informative purposes and are not to be construed, under any circumstances, by implication or otherwise, as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or trade in any commodities or securities herein named. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve substantial risk. In no event should the content of a market letter be construed as a promise that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever.

Unless otherwise indicated, the links presented in this newsletter are in no way affiliated with ClearTrade, Inc. Likewise, sites linked through ClearTrade's newsletter are not necessarily connected with ClearTrade, nor do any such links imply an endorsement by either party.

ClearTrade, Inc. does not necessarily promote or endorse the services or publications described herein. Unless otherwise indicated, ClearTrade Inc. has had no role in the production or review of these products or services and makes no warranty, either expressed or implied, as to their contents, accuracy or performance.

Past results are no indication of future performance. Information provided in this newsletter is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted.
Scott Joss is a 'non member' CTA and is providing recommendations to ClearTrade, Inc. clients. Scott Joss 'is a principal' of ClearTrade, Inc. and 'is a registered IB member' with the NFA.

NOTE: Past results are no indication of future performance. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted.

REPRODUCTION OR REBROADCAST OF ANY PORTION OF THIS INFORMATION IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED WITHOUT THE WRITTEN PERMISSION OF CLEARTRADE, INC.

The contents of this newsletter are copyright 1997-2005, Scott R. Joss/ClearTrade, Inc. *TM. All Rights Reserved.

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