WELCOME TO CLEARTRADE'S NEWSLETTER
ClearTrade's trading recommendations and weekly commodity newsletter was first published in October 1998. Since that time, our research has continued to evolve into an important source of technical insight for many traders. Our goal is to provide traders with a 'game plan' to prepare for the trading day and week ahead.
ClearTrade's technical analyst, Scott Joss, is a veteran futures trader with twenty-eight years experience on and off the trading floor - as a pit trader, account executive handling arbitrage for Smith Barney, former member of the CBOT and presently an IB. Scott prepares technical analysis in selected market groups when an opportunity presents itself and not only develops trading modules on selected trading opportunities but 'feeds-forward', advising traders what to expect and how to react.
 At ClearTrade, we think it’s helpful to speak directly with traders who have requested our research and/or may be interested in establishing an account with us. Understanding your trading needs and goals is important. And we think you should have an opportunity to get to know who we are and what we offer on a one to one basis.
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• TECH TALK
•  CHART WATCH 
•  CURRENT 'MONTHLY' RECOMMENDATION
•  FUTURES WATCH
•  COMING EVENTS AND DATA RELEASES

TECH TALK by Scott R. Joss (Non member C.T.A)*

JUNE S&P 500 (SP5M) 
The June S&P has been in a 7-week price decline that began from contract highs of 1234.10 to recent lows of 1143.20 .
There are two unfilled price gaps above the current market price. The first between 1199.50 and 1201.80, - the second between 1249.30 and 1250.80.
There are four unfilled price gaps below the current market price. The first unfilled price gap is between 1037.00 and 1040.30. The second unfilled price gap is between 860.50  and 861.60. The third unfilled price gap is between 804.70 and 808.50, and the fourth unfilled price gap is between 458.00 and 460.00.
For March, the S&P had a monthly recommendation: Buy When trades 1217.60 - Sell when trades 1188.80.
As I stated last week, the S&P must continue to close on a weekly - but more importantly - on a monthly basis below 1188.80.
CHANGE OF TREND:
As I mentioned above, the June S&P had a monthly recommendation for March: Buy When trades 1217.60 - Sell when trades 1188.80.
For several weeks I have advised traders that if the S&P closed at or below 1188.90 on March 31st, a change of trend would be confirmed. On March 31st the S&P closed at 1183.90.
Why a change in trend?
The June S&P for February posted monthly highs of 1217.50 and lows of 1188.90.
The June S&P for March posted monthly contract highs of 1234.10 and lows of 1166.80 and closed below the previous month’s low of 1188.90.
What all of this means is the June S&P posted not only higher highs than the previous month, but also contract highs. Then, the S&P posted a lower low than the previous month and settled below the previous month’s low.
This price action not only posted an ‘intra-monthly’ sell signal, but also - because it was posted from contract highs - constituted a change in trend.
I further explained that while we cannot predict price movement - because prices move up/down probing for direction, what we can predict is a changing of market trend. 
BROADENING FORMATION:
In last week’s newsletter traders were informed of a bearish ‘broadening formation’ that was developing.
This bearish ‘broadening formation’ is more visible to the eye on the cash Dow Jones and Dow Jones futures charts.
What is a ‘broadening formation’?
The broadening formation is relatively rare.
It is actually an inverted triangle or triangle turned backwards. Trendlines diverge in this formation, creating a picture that looks like an expanding triangle.
The volume tends to expand along with the wider price swings. This situation represents a market that is out of control and unusually emotional. Because this pattern also represents an unusual amount of public participation, it most often occurs at major market tops. Therefore, the expanding pattern is usually a bearish formation.
The formation is also referred to as a ’five-point reversal pattern’ because of its three successively higher peaks and two declining troughs. While the third peak usually moves higher than the first two peaks, the last peak will, on occasion, either stop at the top of the second peak or not reach it.
The violation of the second trough completes the pattern.
The second low - trough - was established at 1166.80 on 3/29/05.
On 4/14/05, the second trough at 1166.80 was closed below - signaling the final sell signal.
WHAT TRADERS WERE ADVISED TO DO LAST WEEK
Traders who established a short position on the ‘intra-day’ sell signal of 1182.20 or below were advised to place their stops above 1195.70, which was the third posted high.
If S&P prices were to advance toward the ‘monthly’ sell signal of 1188.90, traders were advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing stops above last week’s high of 1195.70.
If the S&P were to post a new low from last week’s low of 1183.00, traders were advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing stops above 1195.70.
If the S&P were to post a close below 1170.80, traders were advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing stops for this position only above 1183.00.
If the S&P were to settle on a weekly basis below 1166.80, traders were advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing all stops above 1183.00.
If the S&P were to settle on a weekly basis below 1153.10, traders were advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing all stops above 1166.80.
Last week I posted our first objective would be 1140.10.
Friday, our first objective was almost met - the S&P closed at 1143.70.
Last week's high was 1193.20.
Last week's low was 1143.20.
Last month's high was 1217.50.
Last month's low was 1166.80
WHAT SHOULD TRADERS DO NEXT WEEK?
Traders who established short positions above 1166.80, which was the second trough sell signal, are advised to move their stops above 1166.80.
These short positions will be our core positions.
Traders who either added to their existing short position or established short positions at 1153.10 are advised to place a stop for this position only above the 200-day moving average of 1157.40.
Friday, traders were advised that I will be calculating, on an hourly basis, the time of day each new low is posted to the hourly high posted. I will then tabulate the extent of each bounce within the hour.
WHY RECORD THE TIME AND BOUNCE SEQUENCE?
If I can establish a reasonable time and bounce sequence, traders will be able to enter a (day trade) position shorting the market with a calculated risk and time.
Why should traders day trade?
Because, traders who are short from above 1166.80 are advised to NOT liquidate their positions.
These positions as mentioned above are now considered our CORE POSITIONS.
This means that no new long-term positions will be added - yet.
If the market were to cascade lower, traders will continue to benefit.
If the market were to bounce, traders will not be emotionally affected and exit their core positions prematurely.
However, opportunity is still present on a day to day basis - so we need to take advantage of the newly established downtrend.
If I can establish a sequenced trading module, traders theoretically will not end up selling - as is typical - at hourly cyclical lows, only to watch prices bounce up against their position. So our game plan will be to devise an hourly trading plan based on reoccurring trade patterns.
I want to give traders a glimpse of our compiled - one day - recording. This recording will be based on the June E-mini S&P hourly chart for each newly posted low..
Day 1 - 4/15/05
At 9:14 am CST.
The E-mini posted a low of 1158.50 at 9:14am and a high of 1164.00 at 9:33am.
Duration of rally - 19 minutes.
Length of rally 6.50 points.
The E-mini posted a new low of 1151.50 at 11:59am and a high of 1158.25 at 1:20pm.
Duration of rally - 21 minutes.
Length of rally 6.75 points.
The E-mini posted a new low of 1151.00 at 1:56pm and a high of 1154.75 at 2:00pm.
Duration of rally - 4 minutes.
Length of rally 3.75 points.
The E-mini posted a new low of 1148.75 at 2:24pm and a high of 1151.75 at 2:35pm.
Duration of rally - 11 minutes.
Length of rally 3.00 points.
The E-mini posted a new low of 1143.00 at 3:14pm and closed.
HOW SHOULD TRADERS DAY TRADE NEXT WEEK?
Traders may observe from this recorded information to sell on 6.75 point price bounces, placing a stop 6.75 points above the price of entry. As the market posts each new low, traders are advised to move stops down in increments of each new low or simply liquidate and re-establish a short position on the next bounce, even if the bounce occurs at much lower prices.
Remember, the trend is your friend - so even miscalculated entries on the short side will be forgiven.
Let’s review what traders are to do.
Do not liquidate your core positions.
Establish a calculated game plan to day trade the market.
And most important - never, ever countertrend this market… you will pay dearly, not only financially but emotionally.
Conservative traders are advised to use the E-mini S&P as their primary trading vehicle.
Our second objective will be 1137.50.
Our third objective will be 1105.90.
DAILY CHART:
http://bohl.minot.com/d_Chart.cgi?SP05M
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WEEKLY CHART:
http://bohl.minot.com/w_Chart.cgi?SP
----------------------------------------------------
JUNE TEN YEAR NOTES (TY5M)
Last week I discussed that Notes had been in a nine-week price decline, which began from highs of 112-160 to lows of 107-265.
Recently, Notes have rebounded from lows of 107-265 to highs of 111-070.
Notes had an unfilled price gap between 110-020 and 110-040, which was filled last week.
Notes have two unfilled price gaps below the current market price. The first is between 108-115 and 108-125. The second and most recent is between 110-150 and 110-180.
Last week, June Notes had a weekly recommendation: Buy when trades 110-010 - Sell when trades 109-030.
WHAT DO THE CHARTS LOOK LIKE?
The long-term monthly chart shows Notes in a long-term upward trend that has been in place since 1994.
The long-term upward trendline began from lows of 61-090 through lows of 93-070 and if touched today would be at 103-250.
The daily chart has established a perfect bullish ‘V’ bottom.
The upward trendline of the ‘V’ bottom began from lows of 107-265 through lows of 108-040, lows of 109-040 and if touched today would be at 109-235.
The horizontal trendline breakout can be found at highs of 110-115 on 3/07/05 and 110-110 on 4/12/05.
Last week's high was 111-070.
Last week's low was 109-100.
Last month's high was 110-115.
Last month's low was 107-265.
 
WHAT SHOULD TRADERS DO NEXT WEEK?
Aggressive traders who established long positions at the weekly buy signal 110-010 are advised to move stops below the ‘V’ breakout of 110-115.
Traders who either added to their existing long position or established a long position at 110-120, are advised to move their stops below the ‘V’ breakout of 110-115, which was also last month‘s high.
Traders who either added to their existing long position or established a long position on a close above 110-280 are advised to place stops for this position only below 110-170.
Our first objective of 111-050 was met on Friday.
If Notes were to post a close above last week’s high of 111-070, traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing stops for this position only below 110-215.
Conservative traders are advised to purchase June 111 calls, risking 50% of purchase price.
If Notes were to post a close above 111-270, traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing stops for all positions below 111-075.
Our next objective will be a challenge of contract highs at 112-160.
If Notes were to post a close above 112-160, our next objective will be 112-285.
DAILY CHART:
http://bohl.minot.com/d_Chart.cgi?TY05M
------------
WEEKLY CHART:
 ------------
WEEKLY CHART:
http://bohl.minot.com/w_Chart.cgi?TY
----------------------------------------------------
JULY CORN (C5N)
May corn had been in a 5-week price advance, which began from lows 209.00 to recent highs of 238.00.
Recently, Corn has been in a 4-week price decline, which began from highs of 238.00 to lows of 211.25.
Corn currently is below its 100-day moving average at 218.75.
Corn is below its 200-day moving average at 230.75.
Corn has eight unfilled price gaps above the current market price. The most recent is between 217.25 and 217.75. The next most recent is between 226.00 and 227.00.
Corn has one unfilled price gap below the current market price between 210.25 and 210.50.
For next week Corn has a weekly recommendation: Buy when trades 217.50 - Sell when trades 211.00.
July Corn is currently below last years low 216.25.
Corn posted a close Friday at 214.50.
Last week's high was 217.25.
Last week's low was 211.25.
Last month's high was 238.00.
Last month's low was 217.00.
WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
On 3/16/05, I advised clients who established long positions in May Corn at 225.25 to hedge (neutralize) their long positions by selling July Corn at 232.50.
I wrote in my newsletter that this spread would stay in place until Corn gave traders a weekly or monthly signal to lift a leg.
For next week Corn has a weekly recommendation: Buy when trades 217.50 - Sell when trades 211.00.
If July Corn posts a weekly buy signal at 217.50, traders are advised to liquidate the established short side of the spread (July), placing a stop in the May Corn at 202.75.
If May Corn posts a close above 211.75, traders are advised to move their May stops below 209.25.
If May Corn posts a close above 218.25, traders are advised to move stops below 213.75.
If May Corn trades to 225.25, traders are advised to liquidate their established long position.
On the flipside…
If July Corn posts a weekly sell signal at 211.00, traders are advised to liquidate the long May Corn, placing a stop and reverse for July Corn at 217.50.
If this reversal were to occur, traders are advised to place a stop for their existing long position at 211.00.
If July Corn posts a close below 210.50, traders are advised to move their stops above 211.25.
If July Corn posts a close below 209.00, traders are advised to move their stops above 210.50.
If July Corn trades to 205.00, traders are advised to liquidate their established short position.
DAILY CHART:
http://bohl.minot.com/d_Chart.cgi?C05K
DAILY CHART:
http://bohl.minot.com/d_Chart.cgi?C05N
------------
WEEKLY CHART:
http://bohl.minot.com/w_Chart.cgi?CK

CHART WATCH by Scott R. Joss (Non member C.T.A)*

Readers and clients call during the week and ask: What are you watching?

Watching can mean that the markets are developing a 'recommendation' or a chart pattern that has not yet fully developed - or may never develop.

During the course of the week or month it is not uncommon to find an `intra-day, intra-week or intra-month' recommendation that was previously not revealed when this newsletter was written.

Products that currently fit into this 'watch' category are listed below and should be 'watched.'

JUNE CRUDE OIL (CL5M)
Yikes…June Crude Oil takes its place in the ‘chart watch’ section because of a potential major trend reversal.
June Crude has been in a multi-year price advance that began from lows of 22.05 to recent highs of 59.20.
Recently, Crude had been in a 5-week price consolidation between 53.45 lows and 59.20 highs.
Crude has one unfilled price gap above the current market price between 53.00 and 53.30.
Crude has eight unfilled price gaps below the current market price. The most recent gap is between 49.55 and 50.15. The next most recent gap is between 45.50 and 45.75.
Crude Oil has developed a possible bearish ‘double top’ and ‘M’ formation.
On 3/17/05, Crude posted highs of  58.60.
On 4/04/05, Crude posted highs of  59.20.
Crude on the daily chart shows a bearish ‘M’ formation.
The middle of the ‘M’ is at 53.40, which is major resistance.
Last week's high was 55.25.
Last week's low was 51.60.
Last month's high was 58.60.
Last month's low was 51.65.
WHY A POTENTIAL CHANGE IN TREND?
On 4/04/05, Crude posted a higher monthly high at 59.20, which was higher than March‘s high of 58.60.
On 4/14/05, Crude posted a lower monthly low at 51.60, which was lower than March’s low of 51.65.
If Crude were to close at or below 51.65 on April 30th, a change of trend would be confirmed.
However, if Crude can regain its foothold and close at or above 58.60 on the close of business April 30th, a resumption of the current up trend would occur.
June Crude posted monthly highs in March of 58.60 and lows of 51.65.
June Crude for April has posted monthly contract highs of 59.20 and lows of 51.60.
What this means is June Crude posted not only higher highs than the previous month but also contract high’s. Then, Crude posted a lower low than the previous month but has not yet settled below the previous month’s low confirming a trend change.
This trend reversal, although not yet confirmed, bears watching. If on the close of business April 30th Crude posts a close at or below 51.65, an ‘intra-monthly’ sell signal will be posted from contract highs - constituting a change in trend.
If on the close of business April 30th Crude were to close at or above 58.60, an ‘intra-monthly’ buy signal will be posted, signaling a resumption of the uptrend.
WHAT SHOULD TRADERS DO NEXT WEEK?
Crude Oil has a daily recommendation for Monday: Buy when trades 52.46 - Sell when trades 51.74.
If Crude first posts a daily buy signal at 52.46, aggressive traders are advised NOT to establish a long position - however, aggressive traders should place resting sell stop orders at 51.74 to establish a short position.
If this resting sell stop order were executed, traders are then advised to place a stop order above 53.40.
If Crude first posts a daily sell signal at 51.74, aggressive traders are advised to establish a short position, placing stops above the unfilled price gap at 53.40.
If Crude posts a close below last week’s low of  51.60, aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing all stops above 53.40.
If Crude posts a close at or below 51.65 on the close of business April 30th, all traders are advised to establish a short position, placing stops above 53.40.
Conservative and Aggressive traders are advised to use the Mini Crude Oil contract. Why? Because it’s electronically traded, giving instant fills - and your positions are transparent - since they’re electronic and not seen by the pit.
Our first objective if this were to occur would be 47.60.
On the flipside…
If first Crude posts its daily buy signal at 52.46 and fills its gap between 53.00 and 53.30, traders are to sit on the sidelines and wait for Crude to close on a weekly basis below last week’s low of 51.60 or above last month’s high of 58.60 before establishing a position. All other traders are advised to wait for the closing price of Crude on April 30th before establishing a position.
DAILY CHART:
http://bohl.minot.com/d_Chart.cgi?CL5M
------------
WEEKLY CHART:
http://bohl.minot.com/w_Chart.cgi?CL
----------------------------------------------------
JULY COPPER (HG5N)
Copper continues its place in the ‘chart watch’ section because of a potential major trend reversal.
July Copper has been in a two-year price advance that began from lows of 80.30 to recent highs of 152.50.
Recently, Copper had been in a 6-week price consolidation between 141.30 lows and 150.40 highs.
For April, July Copper has a monthly recommendation: Buy when trades 150.45 - Sell when trades 141.85.
Last week's high was 152.50.
Last week's low was 140.50.
Last month's high was 150.40.
Last month's low was 141.90.
WHY A POTENTIAL CHANGE IN TREND?
As I mentioned above, July Copper had a monthly recommendation for April: Buy When trades 150.45 - Sell when trades 141.85.
On 4/11/05, Copper posted a monthly buy signal at 150.45.
On 4/13/05, Copper posted an ‘intra-weekly’ sell signal at 146.00.
On 4/14/05, Copper posted a monthly sell signal at 141.85.
Major resistance is at 146.00.
If Copper were to close at or below 141.85 on April 30th, a change of trend would be confirmed.
However, if Copper can regain its foothold and close at or above 150.45 on April 30th, a resumption of the current uptrend would occur.
Why a potential change in trend?
July Copper, in March posted monthly highs of 150.40 and lows of 141.90.
Copper for April has posted monthly contract highs of 152.50 and lows of 140.50.
What this means is July Copper posted not only higher highs than the previous month but also contract highs. Then, Copper posted a lower low than the previous month but has not yet settled below the previous months low confirming a trend change.
This trend reversal, although not yet confirmed, bears watching. If on the close of business April 30th Copper posts a close at or below 141.90, an ‘intra-monthly’ sell signal will be posted from contract highs - constituting a change in trend.
If on the close of business April 30th Copper were to close at or above 150.40, an ‘intra-monthly’ buy signal will be posted, signaling a resumption of the uptrend.
WHAT WERE TRADERS ADVISED LAST WEEK?
On 4/12/05, Copper posted an ‘intra-day’ sell signal at 150.75.
Aggressive traders were advised to establish a short position placing stops at 152.50, which were the daily highs.
On 4/13/05, Copper gapped lower, posting an ‘intra-weekly’ sell signal at 146.00 - also leaving an unfilled price gap between 146.20 and 148.30. Aggressive traders were advised of  the intra-weekly sell signal, traders were advised to move stops down to 146.00.
On 4/14/05, Copper gapped lower leaving an unfilled price gap between 143.40 and 144.00. Traders were advised to leave stops at 146.00.
Conservative traders were advised to sit on the sidelines.
WHAT SHOULD TRADERS DO NEXT WEEK?
Aggressive traders are advised to establish a short position against the remaining gap between 146.20 and 148.30.
If Copper prices approach 146.00, aggressive traders are advised to establish a short position, placing stops above 148.30.
If Copper posts a close below last week’s low of 140.50, aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing all stops above 141.90.
If Copper posts a close at or below 141.90 on the close of business April 30th all traders are advised to establish a short position, placing stops above 141.90.
On the flipside…
If Copper fills its gap between 146.20 and 148.30, traders are to sit on the sidelines and wait for the closing price of Copper on April 30th before establishing a new position.
DAILY CHART:
http://bohl.minot.com/d_Chart.cgi?HG5N
------------
WEEKLY CHART:
http://bohl.minot.com/w_Chart.cgi?HG

CURRENT 'MONTHLY' RECOMMENDATIONS
FOR APRIL:

- NO MONTHLY RECOMMENDATIONS

FUTURE WATCH

Future watch will list developing 'monthly' recommendations to watch in April for May use. By listing these products, traders can `feed-forward' with anticipation and focus - centering on products that will provide direction and hopefully, opportunity.
Traders should begin studying the 'daily', 'weekly' and 'monthly' charts for the products listed below. Don't forget between now and the end of the month, some or all of these products may be de-listed.
'Monthly' recommendations will be revealed on the close of business April 30th and sent via email for May use.
 
- OATS
- SILVER
- COTTON
- ORANGE JUICE
- LIVE CATTLE
- CANADIAN DOLLAR
- BRITISH POUND

NOTE:

If you do not completely understand this information, you are advised to take NO action until speaking with your Account Executive.

ClearTrade, Inc. may be reached at 800-493-4444

====================================

* Recommendations and Newsletter prepared by Scott Joss, Non- Member C.T.A.

Scott Joss is a 'non member' CTA and is providing recommendations to ClearTrade, Inc. clients. Scott Joss 'is a principal' of ClearTrade, Inc. and 'is a registered IB member' with the NFA.

====================================

ClearTrade, Inc.
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Suite 2104
Chicago, IL 60640

(800) 493-4444
(773) 561-9777 Voice
(773) 561-9775 Fax

Mailto:research@cleartrade.com 
http://www.cleartrade.com/ 


====================================

DISCLAIMER:

* COMING EVENTS AND DATA RELEASES:

Calendar provided by Briefing.com, Inc. Data is provided for informational purposes only, and is not intended for trading purposes. Neither ClearTrade, Inc. nor any of its data or content providers (such as Reuters, CSI, and Briefing.com) shall be liable for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.

Market recommendations are strictly the opinion of the writer and are intended solely for informative purposes and are not to be construed, under any circumstances, by implication or otherwise, as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or trade in any commodities or securities herein named. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve substantial risk. In no event should the content of a market letter be construed as a promise that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever.

Unless otherwise indicated, the links presented in this newsletter are in no way affiliated with ClearTrade, Inc. Likewise, sites linked through ClearTrade's newsletter are not necessarily connected with ClearTrade, nor do any such links imply an endorsement by either party.

ClearTrade, Inc. does not necessarily promote or endorse the services or publications described herein. Unless otherwise indicated, ClearTrade Inc. has had no role in the production or review of these products or services and makes no warranty, either expressed or implied, as to their contents, accuracy or performance.

Past results are no indication of future performance. Information provided in this newsletter is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted.
Scott Joss is a 'non member' CTA and is providing recommendations to ClearTrade, Inc. clients. Scott Joss 'is a principal' of ClearTrade, Inc. and 'is a registered IB member' with the NFA.

NOTE: Past results are no indication of future performance. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted.

REPRODUCTION OR REBROADCAST OF ANY PORTION OF THIS INFORMATION IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED WITHOUT THE WRITTEN PERMISSION OF CLEARTRADE, INC.

The contents of this newsletter are copyright 1997-2005, Scott R. Joss/ClearTrade, Inc. *TM. All Rights Reserved.

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