WELCOME TO CLEARTRADE'S NEWSLETTER
ClearTrade's trading recommendations and weekly commodity newsletter was first published in October 1998. Since that time, our research has continued to evolve into an important source of technical insight for many traders. Our goal is to provide traders with a 'game plan' to prepare for the trading day and week ahead.
ClearTrade's technical analyst, Scott Joss, is a veteran futures trader with twenty-eight years experience on and off the trading floor - as a pit trader, account executive handling arbitrage for Smith Barney, former member of the CBOT and presently an IB. Scott prepares technical analysis in selected market groups when an opportunity presents itself and not only develops trading modules on selected trading opportunities but 'feeds-forward', advising traders what to expect and how to react.
 At ClearTrade, we think it’s helpful to speak directly with traders who have requested our research and/or may be interested in establishing an account with us. Understanding your trading needs and goals is important. And we think you should have an opportunity to get to know who we are and what we offer on a one to one basis.
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• TECH TALK
•  CHART WATCH 
•  CURRENT 'MONTHLY' RECOMMENDATION
•  FUTURES WATCH
•  COMING EVENTS AND DATA RELEASES

TECH TALK by Scott R. Joss (Non member C.T.A)*

JUNE BRITISH POUND (BP5M)
Several weeks ago, I began developing a trading plan for the British Pound.
There was a weekly and monthly recommendation for the Pound.
On 5/02/05, the Pound posted a weekly sell signal at 1.8945.
On 5/12/05, the Pound posted a monthly sell signal at 1.8612.
There are four unfilled price gaps below the current market price. The most recent unfilled price gap is between 1.6282 and 1.6334. 
Last week's high was 1.8890.
Last week's low was 1.8459.
WHAT POSITIONS WERE TRADERS ADVISED TO ESTABLISH?
On 5/2/05, the June Pound posted a weekly sell recommendation at 1.8945.
Traders were advised to establish a short position at the weekly sell signal of 1.8945, placing a resting stop and reverse order at 1.9128.
On 5/3/05 and 5/4/05, some traders exited their short positions between 1.8862 and 1.8882.
On 5/5/05, the Pound posted a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.9046, which was calculated from lows of 1.8850 to highs of 1.9168.
Traders were advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position at 1.9036, placing stops at 1.9169.
On 5/6/05, the Pound again posted its weekly sell signal at 1.8945.
Traders were advised to either add to their established short position or establish a short position, placing stops for this position only above 1.9046.
If the Pound posted a new weekly low below the previous week’s low of 1.8850, traders were advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing stops for this position only above 1.8966.
Our first objective of 1.8811 was met on 5/9/05.
On 5/12/05, the Pound posted a monthly sell signal at 1.8612.
Traders were advised to either add to their established short position or establish a short position, placing stops for all positions above 1.8945.
WHAT SHOULD TRADERS DO NEXT WEEK?
Trader who established short positions above the monthly sell signal of 1.8612 are advised to move all stops above Friday’s high of 1.8632.
Our second objective will be a challenge of recent lows at 1.8524.
If the Pound posts a weekly close below 1.8524, traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing all stops above 1.8612.
Our third objective will be a challenge of February’s lows at 1.8389.
If the Pound posts a weekly close below 1.8389, traders are advised to move all stops above 1.8524.
Our long-term objective will be to fill the previously mentioned gap between 1.6282 and 1.6334. 
DAILY CHART:
http://www.bohl.minot.com/d_Chart.cgi?BP05M
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WEEKLY CHART:
http://www.bohl.minot.com/w_Chart.cgi?BP
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JULY CRUDE OIL (CL5N)
Four weeks ago, I began developing a trading plan for June Crude Oil.
Each week since then I discussed why Crude had posted a major trend reversal.
Last week I advised traders who established a short June Crude position at 52.70 to hold their position and move their stop above 53.40.
Traders who established a short position at 51.70 were advised to hold their position and move their stop above 53.40.
Traders who established a short position at 49.70 were advised to hold their position and move their stop above 53.40.
If Crude posted a close below the previous week’s low of 48.80, traders were advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing all stops above 51.60.
Our next objective was to be 46.15.
Our long-term objective was to be 42.82.
However, on Friday, traders were advised to exit all June Crude short positions because of the impending first notice day of June Crude on May 20th.
This week I will begin discussions on July Crude, which is now effectively the front month contract.
July Crude Oil has developed a bearish ‘double top’ at 58.80 and 59.70 highs forming a bearish ‘M’ formation.
On 3/17/05, Crude posted highs of 58.80.
On 4/04/05, Crude posted highs of 59.70.
Crude on the daily chart shows a bearish ‘M’ formation.
The middle of the ‘M’ is at 53.85, which is major resistance.
Last week's high was 53.10.
Last week's low was 49.35.
Last month's high was 59.70.
Last month's low was 50.80.
WHY IS THERE A CHANGE IN TREND?
On 4/04/05, July Crude posted a higher monthly high at 59.70, which was higher than March’s high of 58.80.
On 4/29/05, Crude posted a lower monthly close at 51.45 which was lower than March’s low of 51.55.
What this means is July Crude posted not only higher highs than the previous month but also contract highs. Then, Crude posted a lower low than the previous month and settled below the previous month’s low, confirming a trend change.
Major resistance is at 53.85.
Secondary resistance is at 51.90.
NOTE: July Crude must continue to close on a weekly - but more importantly - on a monthly basis below 51.55 or a counter trend may develop, forcing weak shorts to cover their positions.
Let us get acquainted with the July Crude sell signals from the past several weeks
On 4/29/05, July Crude posted an ‘intra-week’ sell signal at 51.90.
On  4/29/05, July Crude posted an ‘intra-month’ sell signal at 51.55.
On 5/13/05, July Crude posted an ‘intra-week’ sell signal at 50.40.
July Crude has an unfilled price gap above the current market price between 51.00 and 51.70.
July Crude has several unfilled price gaps below the current market price. The closest unfilled gap is between 49.20 and 49.35, which was Friday’s low.
Major support for July Crude is at 47.80, which is where the original bullish ‘head and shoulders’ breakout trendline now resides.
WHAT SHOULD TRADERS DO NEXT WEEK?
If Crude first posts a price advance above 50.40, traders are to establish a short position at the .618 retracment level of 52.38, placing stops above 53.85.
However, if Crude first posts a price advance above 50.40, yet cannot fill the previously mentioned price gap at 51.70 within three business days, traders are advised to establish a short position. If this were to occur traders are advised to place stops above 51.90.
If Crude first posts a lower low than last week’s low of 49.35, filling the closest gap of 49.30, traders are advised to establish a short position, placing stops above 50.40.
If Crude posts a weekly close below the previously mentioned support at 47.80, traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing all stops above 49.90.
If Crude posts a weekly close below 45.75, which were recent lows, traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing all stops above 47.80.
Our first objective will be 44.10.
Our second objective will be 43.60.
If Crude were to post a monthly close below 43.60, traders should prepare for an assault on December of 2004 lows of 40.70.
DAILY CHART:
http://bohl.minot.com/d_Chart.cgi?CLO5N
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WEEKLY CHART:
http://www.bohl.minot.com/w_Chart.cgi?CL
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JULY SOYBEAN OIL (BO5N)
Last week, I discussed July Soybean oil and its five-week price consolidation between 22.24 lows and 23.39 highs.
July Bean oil has three unfilled price gaps above the current market price. The most recent is between 22.68 and 22.75. The second is between 24.60 and 24.65. The third is between 25.20 and 25.55.
July Bean oil has one unfilled price gap below the current market price between 20.43 and 20.70.
July Bean oil had a weekly recommendation for last week: buy when trades 23.36 - sell when trades 22.37.
On May 12th, the weekly USDA grain export figures were released.
On May 12th, the all-important monthly USDA crop production report was released.
On 5/13/05, Bean oil posted an ‘intra-week’ sell signal at 22.36.
Last week's high was 23.75.
Last week's low was 22.02.
Last month's high was 23.39.
Last month's low was 22.24.
WHAT WERE TRADERS ADVISED LAST WEEK?
If Bean oil posted a weekly buy signal at 23.36, traders were advised to establish a long position, placing a resting stop and reverse at 22.37.
Conservative traders were advised to purchase December 2400 calls, risking 80% of purchase price. 
If Bean oil posted a weekly sell signal at 22.37, traders were advised to establish a short position, placing a resting stop and reverse order at 23.36.
If Bean oil were to post a weekly close below 22.24, traders were advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing all stops above 22.63.
Conservative traders were advised on Monday’s gap higher opening at 23.50, which was above the weekly buy signal at 23.36, to stand aside. However, aggressive traders were advised to establish a long position, placing stops below 23.36.
If Bean oil were to close below 23.36, all traders were advised to place a resting sell stop order at 22.37 to establish a short position. If this order was elected, traders were advised to place their stops at 23.36.
WHAT SHOULD TRADERS DO NEXT WEEK?
Traders who established short positions at the weekly sell signal 22.36 are advised to move all stops above 23.08.
If Bean oil first posts a price advance to 22.67, traders are to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing stops above 23.08.
However, if Bean oil were to post a close below 21.93, traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing all stops above 22.37.
If Bean oil were to post a close below 21.53, traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing all stops above 22.24, which was last month‘s low.
Our first objective will be to fill the price gap between 20.43 and 20.70.
Our long-term objective will be 19.73
DAILY CHART:
http://bohl.minot.com/d_Chart.cgi?BO5N
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WEEKLY CHART:
http://www.bohl.minot.com/w_Chart.cgi?BO
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JULY SOYBEANS (S5N)
Beans have been in a seven-week price consolidation generally between 610.50 lows and 648.00 highs.
It appears that each time beans traded to the lower end of the trading range 610.50, buyers would step in.
Each time beans approached the upper end of the trading range 648.00, sellers would step in.
The overall appearance of the Bean chart is that lower highs are being established with each push up (669.00, 664.00, 656.75 and 647.50) and a flat horizontal base has developed (612.00, 610.50 and 606.50).
This would logically suggest a bearish ‘descending right triangle.’
However, until Beans can post consecutive closes above 669.00 or consecutive closes below 610.50, this product may be in an extended trading range.
Last week’s highs were 647.50.
Last week’s lows were 606.50.
Last month’s highs were 656.75.
Last month’s lows were 610.50.
WHAT WERE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO LAST WEEK?
On Friday, Beans posted an ‘intra-week’ sell signal at 615.75.
Aggressive traders were advised to establish a short position at 615.75, placing stops above 647.50, which was last week’s high.
Conservative traders were advised to purchase July 620 puts, risking 50% of purchase price.
WHAT SHOULD TRADERS DO NEXT WEEK?
If Beans were to first post a price advance to the weekly sell signal at 615.75, aggressive traders are advised to add to their existing short position, placing stops for this position only above Friday’s high of  623.00.
However, if Beans post a lower low than Friday’s low of 606.50, aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position.
If Bean post consecutive closes below 610.50, all traders are advised to establish a short position, placing stops above 616.00.
If Beans were to post a close below 590.00, traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing all stops above 606.50.
If Beans were to post a weekly close below 580.00, traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing stops for this position only above 597.50.
Our first objective will be 575.25.
If Beans post a monthly close below 575.00, traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing all stops above 590.00.
Our long-term objective will be to fill the price gap between 537.50 and 541.50.
On the flipside…
If Beans were to post a close above 647.50, which was last week’s high, trader’s are advised to enter resting buy stop orders at 657.00 to establish a long position.
If the resting buy stop order was elected, traders are advised to place stops below 647.50.
If Beans were to post a monthly close above 657.00, traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing stops below 647.50.
If Beans were to post a close above 664.50, traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing all stops below 656.75.
If Beans were to post a close above 696.00, traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing all stops below 664.50.
Our long-term objective will be 722.50.
DAILY CHART:
http://www.bohl.minot.com/d_Chart.cgi?S05N
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WEEKLY CHART:
http://www.bohl.minot.com/w_Chart.cgi?S
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JULY COPPER (HG5N)
Many weeks ago I began writing a trading plan for Copper, yet was hesitant to initiate the game plan unless Copper posted an April settlement below 141.90.
This settlement did not occur by April 29th. However, traders continued to watch and ask about Copper.
Copper has been in a two year price advance on the long-term charts from lows of 64.40 to highs of 155.00.
July Copper has been in a similar price advance yet posted contract highs at 152.50.
For the last ten-weeks Copper had been in a price consolidation between 140.50 lows and 152.50 highs.
Until a close was established either below 140.50 or above 152.50, Copper would be range bound.
Copper has one unfilled price gap above the current market price between 141.80 and 143.30.
Copper has several unfilled price gaps below the current market price. The most current unfilled price gap is between 133.20 and 133.40.
Last week’s highs were 146.20.
Last week’s lows were 134.40.
Last month’s highs were 152.50.
Last month’s lows were 140.50.
WHAT WERE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO LAST WEEK?
On 5/12/05, Copper posted a decisive close below the ten-week trading range.
Aggressive traders were advised to establish a short position at 139.10 or higher, placing stops above 140.50.
WHAT SHOULD TRADERS DO NEXT WEEK?
Aggressive traders who established a short position at 139.10 or higher are advised to leave their stops above 140.50.
If Copper first posts a price advance towards the 138.90 price level, traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing stops above 140.50.
If Copper posts a lower low than last week’s low of 134.40, traders are advised to wait for a price advance toward the 137.20 level to either add to their existing short position or establishing a short position. If this were to occur traders are advised to place all stops above 138.90.
If Copper posts a weekly or monthly close below 132.00, traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing all stops above 134.40.
Our first objective will be 128.50.
DAILY CHART:
http://bohl.minot.com/d_Chart.cgi?HGO5N
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WEEKLY CHART:
http://www.bohl.minot.com/w_Chart.cgi?HG
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JUNE GOLD (GC5M)
Gold has been a tough product to understand lately. However, my eyes were glued to not only the Gold futures chart but also the XAU composite.
The XAU composite is just what it sounds like - a composite of Gold stocks.
Both products, from my experience, have moved in tandem for years.
Recently the XAU prices have been tumbling toward levels not seen since June of 2004, which would mean Gold prices should be under $400.00.
I continued my vigilant watch until a pattern in June Gold finally formed.
The pattern is again the rarely seen bearish ’broadening’ formation that is not so rare lately.
The upward trendline to the broadening began at 431.00 highs through 437.40 highs and finally 439.10 highs.
The first trough low to the broadening formation began at 427.00, the second trough low was at 424.70 and finally the third and most important trough low at 423.50 was broken Friday.
Breaking the third trough low on a broadening formation is your sell signal.
Last week’s highs were 429.30.
Last week’s lows were 419.30.
Last month’s highs were 439.10.
Last month’s lows were 423.50.
 
WHAT WERE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO LAST WEEK?
Aggressive traders were advised to establish a short position at 426.50, placing stops above 439.10.
Conservative traders were advised to establish a short position at 426.50, placing stops at 428.50.
Conservative traders were stopped out of their short positions at 428.50 when last week’s White House airspace was violated.
All traders were advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position at 423.40, placing all stops above 429.30.
WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
If Gold first posts a price advance to the 423.50 price level, traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing stops above 429.30.
If Gold posts a lower low than last week’s low of 419.30, traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing stops for this position only above 423.50.
If Gold posts a weekly close below 414.00, traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing all stops above 423.50.
Our first objective will be 407.90.
If Gold posts a weekly close below 402.50, traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing all stops above 414.00.
If Gold posts a weekly close below 394.00, traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing all stops above 402.50.
Our long-term objective will be 365.10.
On the flipside…
If Gold were to ever close above the third and currently the last high of 439.10, traders are advised to establish a long position, placing stops below 431.70.
If Gold were to post a weekly close above 450.80, traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing all stops below 439.10.
If this were ever to occur, our objective would be a challenge of contract highs of 462.90.
DAILY CHART:
http://bohl.minot.com/d_Chart.cgi?GCO5M
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WEEKLY CHART:
http://bohl.minot.com/w_Chart.cgi?GC

CHART WATCH by Scott R. Joss (Non member C.T.A)*

Readers and clients call during the week and ask: What are you watching?

Watching can mean that the markets are developing a 'recommendation' or a chart pattern that has not yet fully developed - or may never develop.

During the course of the week or month it is not uncommon to find an `intra-day, intra-week or intra-month' recommendation that was previously not revealed when this newsletter was written.

Products that currently fit into this 'watch' category are listed below and should be 'watched.'

JUNE JAPANESE YEN (JY5M)
The Yen is being added to chart watch because of a possible ‘intra-monthly’ sell signal, which may or may not occur.
Currently aggressive traders are short from a daily sell signal that occurred on May 6th at .9582.
If the Yen were to close at or below .9233 by the close of business for May, then the Yen will have posted an ‘intra-month’ sell signal.
If this were to occur traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing all stops above .9331.
Traders should take note that the U.S. Dollar has broken out of a bullish ‘cup with a handle’ formation on 5/12/05.
Our first objective is 87.31.
Our long-term objective is 89.54.
Remember, I only use the Dollar as an indicator and not to establish a trade because of low volume. The general rule of thumb is that the Dollar goes opposite of the Euro-currency and Swiss Franc. 
DAILY CHART:
http://bohl.minot.com/d_Chart.cgi?JYO5M
------------
WEEKLY CHART:
http://bohl.minot.com/w_Chart.cgi?JY
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JULY SUGAR (SB5N)
Let us begin watching a possibly explosive product - Sugar.
Sugar, you ask?
Yes, Sugar has a weekly recommendation for next week: buy when trades 8.51 - sell when trades 8.21.
In addition, if sugar can maintain its current monthly lows and highs through May, then Sugar will have a monthly recommendation for June.
Why will this be important for us to watch? Because there may be a fundamental policy change in the works. This policy change may not only affect Sugar but all grain products as well.
President Bush vs. Big Business.
If you’re interested, read the following article at
http://www.tradeobservatory.org/library.cfm?refid=72784.
If I were a betting man, I would purchase multiple calls and puts for March of 2006. A true volatility play….purchase March of 2006 1200 calls and purchase March 2006 650 puts.
As they say in baseball - batter up!
DAILY CHART:
http://bohl.minot.com/d_Chart.cgi?SBO5N
------------
WEEKLY CHART:
http://bohl.minot.com/w_Chart.cgi?SB

CURRENT 'MONTHLY' RECOMMENDATIONS
FOR MAY:

- SILVER (SI5N)
- ORANGE JUICE (OJ5N)
- LIVE CATTLE (LC5M)
- BRITISH POUND (BP5M)

FUTURE WATCH

Future watch will list developing 'monthly' recommendations to watch in May for June. By listing these products, traders can `feed-forward' with anticipation and focus - centering on products that will provide direction and hopefully, opportunity.
Traders should begin studying the 'daily', 'weekly' and 'monthly' charts for the products listed below. Don't forget between now and the end of the month, some or all of these products may be de-listed.
'Monthly' recommendations will be revealed on the close of business May 31st and sent via email for June.
 
- EMINI S&P
- S&P 500
- NASDAQ 100
- MINI NASDAQ
- DOW JONES
- SUGAR
- COFFEE
- SOYBEAN MEAL
- PORK BELLIES

NOTE:

If you do not completely understand this information, you are advised to take NO action until speaking with your Account Executive.

ClearTrade, Inc. may be reached at 800-493-4444

====================================

* Recommendations and Newsletter prepared by Scott Joss, Non- Member C.T.A.

Scott Joss is a 'non member' CTA and is providing recommendations to ClearTrade, Inc. clients. Scott Joss 'is a principal' of ClearTrade, Inc. and 'is a registered IB member' with the NFA.

====================================

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Suite 2104
Chicago, IL 60640

(800) 493-4444
(773) 561-9777 Voice
(773) 561-9775 Fax

Mailto:research@cleartrade.com 
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====================================

DISCLAIMER:

* COMING EVENTS AND DATA RELEASES:

Calendar provided by Briefing.com, Inc. Data is provided for informational purposes only, and is not intended for trading purposes. Neither ClearTrade, Inc. nor any of its data or content providers (such as Reuters, CSI, and Briefing.com) shall be liable for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.

Market recommendations are strictly the opinion of the writer and are intended solely for informative purposes and are not to be construed, under any circumstances, by implication or otherwise, as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or trade in any commodities or securities herein named. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve substantial risk. In no event should the content of a market letter be construed as a promise that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever.

Unless otherwise indicated, the links presented in this newsletter are in no way affiliated with ClearTrade, Inc. Likewise, sites linked through ClearTrade's newsletter are not necessarily connected with ClearTrade, nor do any such links imply an endorsement by either party.

ClearTrade, Inc. does not necessarily promote or endorse the services or publications described herein. Unless otherwise indicated, ClearTrade Inc. has had no role in the production or review of these products or services and makes no warranty, either expressed or implied, as to their contents, accuracy or performance.

Past results are no indication of future performance. Information provided in this newsletter is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted.
Scott Joss is a 'non member' CTA and is providing recommendations to ClearTrade, Inc. clients. Scott Joss 'is a principal' of ClearTrade, Inc. and 'is a registered IB member' with the NFA.

NOTE: Past results are no indication of future performance. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted.

REPRODUCTION OR REBROADCAST OF ANY PORTION OF THIS INFORMATION IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED WITHOUT THE WRITTEN PERMISSION OF CLEARTRADE, INC.

The contents of this newsletter are copyright 1997-2005, Scott R. Joss/ClearTrade, Inc. *TM. All Rights Reserved.

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