WELCOME TO CLEARTRADE'S NEWSLETTER
ClearTrade's trading recommendations and weekly commodity newsletter was first published in October 1998. Since that time, our research has continued to evolve into an important source of technical insight for many traders. Our goal is to provide traders with a 'game plan' to prepare for the trading day and week ahead.
ClearTrade's technical analyst, Scott Joss, is a veteran futures trader with twenty-eight years experience on and off the trading floor - as a pit trader, account executive handling arbitrage for Smith Barney, former member of the CBOT and presently an IB. Scott prepares technical analysis in selected market groups when an opportunity presents itself and not only develops trading modules on selected trading opportunities but 'feeds-forward', advising traders what to expect and how to react.
 At ClearTrade, we think it’s helpful to speak directly with traders who have requested our research and/or may be interested in establishing an account with us. Understanding your trading needs and goals is important. And we think you should have an opportunity to get to know who we are and what we offer on a one to one basis.
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• TECH TALK
•  CHART WATCH 
•  CURRENT 'MONTHLY' RECOMMENDATION
•  FUTURES WATCH
•  COMING EVENTS AND DATA RELEASES

TECH TALK by Scott R. Joss (Non member C.T.A)*

OCTOBER SUGAR (SB5V)
Last week I discussed July Sugar ‘technically’ and added a bit of fundamental information. However, first notice day for the July contract is fast approaching in two weeks so we need to begin developing a trading module for the October contract.
Today the G33 met and reaffirmed its intention to push an agenda to protect rural farmers in the World Trade Organization's upcoming Doha Round of negotiations.
The G33 is determined to pursue an agreement that will protect the group's poor subsistence farmers, and eliminate developed countries' market-distorting price subsidies for agricultural products.
The G33 actually has 42 members and is coordinated by Indonesia. The group includes countries as diverse as China, Panama and Botswana. The group is pushing for developed countries to accept its special products and special safeguard mechanism, designed to protect staple agricultural commodities such as rice, sugar and soybeans from excessive import-tariff cuts. The G33 fears such cuts will spark a flood of heavily subsidized imports from developed economies.
The G33 resolved to hammer out the specifics of their WTO agenda by July in order to prepare for negotiations with developed countries, which will lead up to the WTO ministerial meeting in Hong Kong in December. At stake is the success of the WTO's Doha Round, which aims to slash subsidies, tariffs and other barriers to global commerce and use trade to help poor nations.
The Doha Round, originally scheduled to be completed at the start of this year, stalled at a meeting in Cancun, Mexico in September 2003. Developing nations led by India and Brazil insisted that members like the European Union and the U.S. stop subsidizing farm production.
http://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/dda_e/dda_e.htm
WHAT DOES THE OCTOBER SUGAR CHART LOOK LIKE?
October Sugar has been in a multi-year price advance, which began from lows of 6.12 (2/13/04) to recent highs of 9.45 (3/17/05).
Recently, October Sugar had been in a 4-week price decline, which began from highs of 9.45 to lows of 8.24 (5/05/05).
Currently Sugar has traded from its lows of 8.24 to highs of 9.03 (6/10/05).
Sugar closed Friday at 9.00, which is above its 100-day moving average of 8.89 and its 200-day moving average of 8.79.
Sugar has seven unfilled price gaps above the current market price. The most recent price gap is between 9.25 and 9.32.
Sugar has four unfilled price gaps below the current market price. The most recent price gap is between 8.78 and 8.79.
This most recent gap posted below the market may be a bullish ‘Island Reversal’ pattern.
On 6/01/05, Sugar gapped lower leaving an unfilled price gap between 8.80 and 8.81.
On 6/03/05, Sugar gapped higher leaving an unfilled price gap between 8.78 and 8.79.
If the recent downside gap remains unfilled, this would constitute a continuation reversal pattern.
On 5/18/05, Sugar posted a weekly buy signal at 8.54.
The daily Sugar chart appears to be developing a bullish “W” formation or a one-two-three bottom.
The left side of the “W” formation began from highs of 9.45 to lows of 8.29.
The middle of the “W’ was formed between 8.29 lows to 8.65 highs to 8.24 lows.
The right side of the “W” was established from lows of 8.24 to current highs of 9.03.
The all-important middle of the “W” is at 8.65.
Last week I discussed the long-term weekly charts and monthly charts, which will remain the same.
The long-term weekly Sugar chart has the same formation as the daily chart, which is a bullish “W” formation.
There is a major difference between the two - which happens to be that the long-term weekly Sugar chart broke out of its downward trendline on 9/03/04.
The downward long-term trendline began from highs of 15.83 (1/06/95) through highs of 11.40 (10/20/00) and was breached at 8.40 (9/03/04).
The all-important middle of the “W” is at 8.85.
The long-term monthly Sugar chart supports the daily and long-term weekly charts. However, as I discussed last week, the monthly chart has not only one but also possibly two “W” formations developing.
The first “W” was duplicated with the downward long-term trendline beginning from highs of 15.83 (1/06/95) through highs of 11.40 (10/20/00) and was breached at approx. 8.40 (9/03/04).
The all-important middle of the “W” is at 8.85.
The second possible bullish “W‘s” trendline began from highs of 15.83 to lows of 3.93 and was breached at approx. 8.40 (9/03/04).
The all-important middle of the second “W” is at 11.40.
Last week I explained how I calculated our long-term objectives of 12.88 and 18.87 with the stipulation that first, Sugar must maintain a foothold above the middle of the correlating W‘s, which is a 8.85.
Last week's high was 9.03.
Last week's low was 8.84.
Last month's high was 8.91.
Last month's low was 8.24.
WHAT WERE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO LAST WEEK?
On 5/18/05, traders were advised to establish a long position at the weekly buy signal of 8.51, placing stops below 8.13.
Conservative traders were advised to purchase multiple March 1200 calls, risking 100% of purchase price.
On 6/3/05, traders were advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position at the monthly buy signal of 8.82, placing stops at 8.20.
Conservative traders were advised to either add to their existing March 1200 calls or purchase multiple March 1200 calls, risking 100% of purchase price.
Last week traders were advised to roll out of their July Sugar futures and into October futures.
To exit the July and enter the October contract, traders were advised to do a spread order.
Sell the July and buy the October at the market.
WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
Traders who established a long position in the October contract are advised to place their stops below 8.65.
If October Sugar were first to pull back in price to last week’s low of 8.84, traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing stops below 8.65.
If Sugar posts a higher high than last week’s high of 9.03, traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing stops for this position only at 8.83.
If Sugar posts a close above 9.13, traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing stops for this position only below 8.91.
Our first objective will be to fill the recent unfilled gap between 9.25 and 9.32.
If Sugar posts multiple closes above 9.25, traders should prepare for an assault on contract highs of 9.45.
If Sugar posts a close above 9.45, traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing all stops below 9.03.
On the flipside…
If Sugar were to reverse and post a monthly close at or below 8.24, traders are to sit on the sidelines and wait for another trading opportunity.
DAILY CHART:
http://bohl.minot.com/d_Chart.cgi?SB05N
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WEEKLY CHART:
http://bohl.minot.com/w_Chart.cgi?SB
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SEPTEMBER TEN YEAR NOTE (TY5U)
The Ten-year note has been in a seven-week price advance that began from lows of 107-185 to recent highs of 114-210.
There are four unfilled price gaps below the current market price. The most recent gap below the market is between 112-275 and 112-300. The second unfilled price gap below the current market price is between 111-045 and 111-090.
There are no unfilled price gaps above the current market price.
For next week, Notes have a weekly recommendation: buy when trades 114-030 - sell when trades 112-290.
Last month's high was 113-155.
Last month's low was 110-290.
WHAT SHOULD TRADERS DO NEXT WEEK?
If the Ten-year Note posts a weekly sell signal at 112-290, traders are advised to establish a short position, placing a resting stop and reverse order at 114-030.
If the Ten-year note posts a weekly sell signal at 112-290 and reverses, traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position against last month’s high of 113-155, placing stop and reverse orders at 114-030.
Our first objective will be to fill the most current gap at 112-275.
If the Ten-year note posts a close below 112-165, traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing stops for this position only above 112-290.
If the Ten-year note posts a close below 112-065, traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing all stops above 112-290.
Our second objective will be to fill the second price gap at 111-045.
If the Ten-year note were to post a close below 111-045, traders should prepare for an all out assault on May’s lows at 110-290.
Our third objective will to fill the third price gap at 110-080.
If notes were to close at or below 110-290 on a monthly basis, in this case June 30th, this would constitute a major trend reversal.
Why a trend reversal?
On 6/03/05, the Ten-year note posted a higher monthly high at 114-210, which was higher than May’s high of 113-155.
If the Ten-year note were to close at or below May’s low of 110-290 on the close of business June 30th, this would constitute a major change in trend.
If the Ten-year note were to post a monthly close below 110-290, traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing all stops above 111-285.
Conservative traders are advised to purchase September 111-00 puts, risking 50% of purchase price.
Our long-term objective will be a challenge of March lows of 107-185.
On the flipside…
If the Ten-year note posts a weekly buy signal at 114-030, traders are advised to establish a long position, placing a resting stop and reverse order at 112-290.
If the Ten-year note posts a weekly buy signal at 114-030 and reverses, traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position against last month’s high of 113-155, placing stop and reverse orders at 112-290.
Our first objective will be a challenge of contract highs at 114-210.
If the Ten-year note were to post multiple closes above 114-210, traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing all stops below 114-035.
Our second objective will be 115-245.
DAILY CHART:
http://bohl.minot.com/d_Chart.cgi?TY05U
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WEEKLY CHART:
http://bohl.minot.com/w_Chart.cgi?TY
----------------------------------------------------
SEPTEMBER 30-YEAR BOND (US5U)
The Bond has been in a seven-week price advance that began from lows of 108-29 to recent highs of 119-23.
There are six unfilled price gaps below the current market price. The most recent gap below the market is between 116-13 and 116-21. The second unfilled price gap below the current market price is between 113-26 and 113-29. The third unfilled price gap below the current market price is between 112-15 and 112-20.
There are no unfilled price gaps above the current market price.
For next week, Bonds have a weekly recommendation: buy when trades 119-03 - sell when trades 117-05.
Last month's high was 117-23.
Last month's low was 113-05.
WHAT SHOULD TRADERS DO NEXT WEEK?
If Bonds post a weekly sell signal at 117-05, traders are advised to establish a short position, placing a resting stop and reverse order at 119-03.
If Bonds post a weekly sell signal at 117-05 and reverse, traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position against last month’s high of 117-23, placing stop and reverse orders at 119-03.
Our first objective will be to fill the most current gap at 116-13.
If Bonds post a close below 116-01, traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing stops for this position only above 117-06.
If Bonds post a close below 115-19, traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing all stops above 116-01.
If Bonds were to post a close below 114-07, traders should prepare for an all out assault on May’s lows at 113-05.
Our second objective will be to fill the second price gap at 113-26.
If Bonds were to close at or below 113-05 on a monthly basis, in this case June 30th, this would constitute a major trend reversal.
Our third objective will be to fill the third price gap at 112-15.
Why a trend reversal?
On 6/03/05, Bonds posted a higher monthly high at 119-23, which was higher than May’s high of 117-23.
If Bonds were to close at or below May’s low of 113-05 on the close of business June 30th, this would constitute a major change in trend.
If Bonds were to post a monthly close below 113-05, traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing all stops above 115-09.
Conservative traders are advised to purchase September 113-00 puts, risking 50% of purchase price.
Our long-term objective will be a challenge of March lows of 108-29.
On the flipside…
If Bonds post a weekly buy signal at 119-03, traders are advised to establish a long position, placing a resting stop and reverse order at 117-05.
If Bonds post a weekly buy signal at 119-03 and reverse, traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position against last month’s high of 117-23, placing stop and reverse orders at 117-05.
Our first objective will be a challenge of contract highs at 119-23.
If Bonds were to post multiple closes above 119-23, traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing all stops below 119-03.
Our second objective will be 121-24.
DAILY CHART:
http://bohl.minot.com/d_Chart.cgi?US05U
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WEEKLY CHART:
http://bohl.minot.com/w_Chart.cgi?US

CHART WATCH by Scott R. Joss (Non member C.T.A)*

Readers and clients call during the week and ask: What are you watching?

Watching can mean that the markets are developing a 'recommendation' or a chart pattern that has not yet fully developed - or may never develop.

During the course of the week or month it is not uncommon to find an `intra-day, intra-week or intra-month' recommendation that was previously not revealed when this newsletter was written.

Products that currently fit into this 'watch' category are listed below and should be 'watched.'

- There is no Chart Watch this week. 

CURRENT 'MONTHLY' RECOMMENDATIONS
FOR JUNE:

- DOW JONES (DJ5U)
- SUGAR (SB5N)
- COFFEE (KC5N)

FUTURE WATCH

Future watch will list developing 'monthly' recommendations to watch in June for July. By listing these products, traders can `feed-forward' with anticipation and focus - centering on products that will provide direction and hopefully, opportunity.
Traders should begin studying the 'daily', 'weekly' and 'monthly' charts for the products listed below. Don't forget between now and the end of the month, some or all of these products may be de-listed.
'Monthly' recommendations will be revealed on the close of business June 30 and sent via email for July.
 
- SEPTEMBER CORN (C5U)
- SEPTEMBER WHEAT (W5U)
- DECEMBER SOYBEAN OIL (BO5Z)
- AUGUST GOLD (GC5Q)
- SEPTEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR (CD5U)

NOTE:

If you do not completely understand this information, you are advised to take NO action until speaking with your Account Executive.

ClearTrade, Inc. may be reached at 800-493-4444

====================================

* Recommendations and Newsletter prepared by Scott Joss, Non- Member C.T.A.

Scott Joss is a 'non member' CTA and is providing recommendations to ClearTrade, Inc. clients. Scott Joss 'is a principal' of ClearTrade, Inc. and 'is a registered IB member' with the NFA.

====================================

ClearTrade, Inc.
5415 N. Sheridan Rd.
Suite 2104
Chicago, IL 60640

(800) 493-4444
(773) 561-9777 Voice
(773) 561-9775 Fax

Mailto:research@cleartrade.com 
http://www.cleartrade.com/ 


====================================

DISCLAIMER:

* COMING EVENTS AND DATA RELEASES:

Calendar provided by Briefing.com, Inc. Data is provided for informational purposes only, and is not intended for trading purposes. Neither ClearTrade, Inc. nor any of its data or content providers (such as Reuters, CSI, and Briefing.com) shall be liable for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.

Market recommendations are strictly the opinion of the writer and are intended solely for informative purposes and are not to be construed, under any circumstances, by implication or otherwise, as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or trade in any commodities or securities herein named. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve substantial risk. In no event should the content of a market letter be construed as a promise that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever.

Unless otherwise indicated, the links presented in this newsletter are in no way affiliated with ClearTrade, Inc. Likewise, sites linked through ClearTrade's newsletter are not necessarily connected with ClearTrade, nor do any such links imply an endorsement by either party.

ClearTrade, Inc. does not necessarily promote or endorse the services or publications described herein. Unless otherwise indicated, ClearTrade Inc. has had no role in the production or review of these products or services and makes no warranty, either expressed or implied, as to their contents, accuracy or performance.

Past results are no indication of future performance. Information provided in this newsletter is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted.
Scott Joss is a 'non member' CTA and is providing recommendations to ClearTrade, Inc. clients. Scott Joss 'is a principal' of ClearTrade, Inc. and 'is a registered IB member' with the NFA.

NOTE: Past results are no indication of future performance. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted.

REPRODUCTION OR REBROADCAST OF ANY PORTION OF THIS INFORMATION IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED WITHOUT THE WRITTEN PERMISSION OF CLEARTRADE, INC.

The contents of this newsletter are copyright 1997-2005, Scott R. Joss/ClearTrade, Inc. *TM. All Rights Reserved.

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