WELCOME TO CLEARTRADE'S NEWSLETTER
ClearTrade's trading recommendations and weekly commodity newsletter was first published in October 1998. Since that time, our research has continued to evolve into an important source of technical insight for many traders. Our goal is to provide traders with a 'game plan' to prepare for the trading day and week ahead.
ClearTrade's technical analyst, Scott Joss, is a veteran futures trader with twenty-eight years experience on and off the trading floor - as a pit trader, account executive handling arbitrage for Smith Barney, former member of the CBOT and presently an IB. Scott prepares technical analysis in selected market groups when an opportunity presents itself and not only develops trading modules on selected trading opportunities but 'feeds-forward', advising traders what to expect and how to react.
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• TECH TALK
•  CHART WATCH 
•  CURRENT 'MONTHLY' RECOMMENDATION
•  FUTURES WATCH
•  COMING EVENTS AND DATA RELEASES

TECH TALK by Scott R. Joss (Non member C.T.A)*

DECEMBER COFFEE (KC5Z)
This week I will develop a ‘trading module’ for December Coffee because of a pending weekly recommendation for next week and a monthly recommendation for August.
Coffee has been in an extended down move for 9-weeks from highs of 147.00 (3/11/05) to recent lows of 100.70.
On 6/10/05, Coffee posted an ‘intra-monthly’ sell signal at 122.75.
In addition, Coffee had developed a bearish ‘M’ formation or a one-two-three top.
The middle of the ‘M’ was established at 118.75 (4/15/05).
The short-term projection from the ‘M’ formation was 96.50.
The long-term projection from the ‘M’ formation was 90.50.
December Coffee has two unfilled price gaps above the current market price. The most recent is between 109.70 and 109.75.
Coffee has several unfilled price gaps below the current market price. The most recent is between 100.00 and 100.70.
On 7/25/05, Coffee posted an ‘intra-day’ buy signal at 104.55.
On 7/28/05, Coffee posted an ‘intra-day’ buy signal at 105.30.
Coffee’s 100-day moving average is at 115.50.
Coffee’s 200-day moving average is at 123.50.
Last week’s high was 108.10.
Last week’s low was 101.30.
Last month’s high was 113.90.
Last month’s low was 100.70.
WHAT DO THE CHARTS LOOK LIKE?
The daily December Coffee chart appears to be in a long-term down channel.
The top of the downward channel began from highs of 141.00 through highs of 133.50 and if touched today would intersect at 122.80.
The bottom of the downward channel began from lows of 118.75 through lows of 100.70 and if touched today would intersect at 98.40.
Take note that the support line is coming from the ‘M’ formation that I previously mentioned.
Will this be a dead cat bounce or another leg up?
WHAT DO THE CHARTS LOOK LIKE?
One technical factor is that Coffee has to close on a monthly basis above 118.75 before this market is considered bullish.
If Coffee can close on a monthly basis above 118.75 - then funds will step in and buy.
The long-term weekly chart is interesting because it also shows that Coffee needs to close above 118.75.
Recently, December Coffee breached the critical .618 retracement at 104.95 from lows of 79.00 to highs of 147.00.
The 50% retracement is at 113.00.
The long-term weekly chart indicates Coffee needs to remain above 100.70 in order to advance to higher prices.
The long-term monthly chart shows the original bullish rounded bottom formation that developed over a six-year period between 1999 and 2005.
The low posted in the month of November 1999 was 101.80.
Coffee developed a yearly recommendation in 2003.
In 2004, Coffee posted a yearly buy signal at 70.80.
Last year’s high was 108.70.
WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
Last October I developed a ‘trading module’ for Coffee because of a pending monthly recommendation.
I will remind traders as I did at that time; this product is extremely volatile and should only be traded by aggressive traders. This is not for the inexperienced trader or the faint of heart.
Clients should be cautioned that they must have an equity to risk ratio of no more than 9% to trade this product.
That means if the risk in Coffee is $2,600 - you must have an account size of $24,000 per contract.
If you do not fit this profile, consult your account executive and consider an options strategy.
December Coffee has a weekly recommendation for next week: buy when trades 108.15 - sell when trades 101.25.
December Coffee has a monthly recommendation for August: buy when trades 113.95 - sell when trades 100.65.
If Coffee first posts its weekly buy signal at 108.15, aggressive traders are advised to wait for a pullback to support at 105.25 to establish a long position.
If this were to occur, traders are advised to place a stop and reverse resting order at 100.65.
If Coffee first posts its weekly buy signal at 108.15 yet does not pull back in price, aggressive traders are to establish a long position on a close above 109.70, placing stops below 105.90.
Conservative traders are advised to consider a bull call spread: buy December 1100 calls and sell December 1200 calls, risking 100% of purchased price.
This will give options traders a 3.5- to-1 risk/reward ratio before commissions and fees.
If Coffee posts a close above 111.90, traders should prepare for an assault on resistance at 113.30 and the monthly buy signal at 113.95.
If Coffee posts a monthly buy signal at 113.95, aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing all stops below 108.15.
If Coffee posts a close above 116.00, aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing stops for this position only below 113.30.
Our first objective will be a challenge of resistance at 118.75, which is the middle of the original ‘M’ formation.
If Coffee posts a monthly close above 118.75, aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing all stops below 113.95.
 Our next objective will be to fill the unfilled price gap above the current market price between 122.00 and 123.35.
On the flipside…
If Coffee first posts its weekly sell signal at 101.25, aggressive traders are advised to wait for the monthly sell signal at 100.65 to establish a short position.
If this were to occur, aggressive traders are advised to place a resting stop and reverse order at 108.15.
If the resting order was executed - in effect establishing a long position, traders are advised to place stops below 105.90.
If Coffee posts a close below 97.50, aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing all stops above 101.25.
Our first objective will be 96.50, which was the original short-term projection from the ‘M‘ formation.
If Coffee posts a close below 95.50, aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing all stops above 97.50.
If Coffee posts a close below 93.50, aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing all stops above 97.50.
Our second objective will be 90.50, which was the original long-term projection from the ‘M’ formation.
DAILY CHART:
http://www.bohl.minot.com/d_Chart.cgi?KC05Z
------------
WEEKLY CHART:
http://www.bohl.minot.com/w_Chart.cgi?KC
----------------------------------------------------
OCTOBER SUGAR (SB5V)
Last week I explored the concept that Sugar may or may not have extreme price pullbacks despite being over-bought. I believe - not only technically but also fundamentally - that prices are poised to climb higher, unabated in the long-term. However, 30 to 40 tick pullbacks are not unusual in a bull market.
Price pullbacks are healthy because they weed out the weak longs, strong longs can take some profits, and bears re-establish short positions. All of these factors rejuvenate the market for the next upward price move.
Next week may be a challenge for Sugar traders because sugar failed to penetrate or close above the psychological 10.00 level last week.
Floor traders will use this price level as a catalyst to sell against.
Some technicians are anticipating Monday’s Sugar open because of a possible gap lower in Sugar prices. Many believe that the market is overbought and needs to work off excesses in buying.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report published each Friday indicated that the open interest increased by 13,805 contracts -  and open interest was at a lofty 424,133 contracts. 
Many are hoping for an ‘island’ reversal top, which would signal a top formation and a reversal in trend.
My belief technically is that sugar prices will go much higher - not only in the short-term but in years to come -  based on two very bullish ’W’ formations. These ’W’ formations have developed on the daily, weekly and monthly charts.  In addition, Sugar in 2004 posted an ‘intra-yearly’ buy signal at 8.85.
WHAT ARE THE TECHNICALS OF SUGAR?
Each week I stress to traders that the Sugar ‘trading module’ I have developed is a long-term trade that may span a year or more to achieve. Because of the possible length of the trade, traders have been advised to establish long positions in March 2006 futures and options.
The positions in the March contract are based originally on daily, weekly, and monthly trade signals from the July contract and now, October trade signals.
October Sugar has been in a multi-year price advance which began from lows of 6.12 (2/13/04) to recent highs of 9.99 (7/26/05).
Sugar closed Friday at 9.83, which is above its 100-day moving average of 8.99 and its 200-day moving average of 8.96.
Take note that the 200-day moving average is trying to cross over the 100-day moving average. If this were to occur, it would officially signal that Sugar is in a bull move.
Several week’s ago I wrote that Sugar prices were entering backwardation, where front month prices are progressively higher than the back months, which is another indication of a bullish market.
Only two markets on the board are in backwardation…. Copper and Sugar.
Sugar has eight unfilled price gaps above the current market price. The first unfilled price gap above the current market price is between 11.72 and 11.80 (1/09/98).
Sugar had four unfilled price gaps below the current market price. The closest price gap is between 9.73 and 9.76.
On 5/18/05, Sugar posted a weekly buy signal at 8.54.
On 6/17/05, Sugar posted an ‘intra-weekly’ buy signal at 9.04.
On 7/07/05, Sugar posted a major price breakout by posting a weekly close above past contract highs of 9.45 from 3/17/05.
On 7/13/05, Sugar posted a daily buy signal at 9.55.
On 7/15/05, Sugar posted its second weekly close above the major price breakout of 9.45 from 3/17/05.
On 7/21/05, Sugar posted an ‘intra-day’ buy signal at 9.55.
On 7/22/05, Sugar posted an ‘intra-week’ buy signal at 9.60.
On 7/22/05, Sugar posted its third weekly close above the major price breakout of 9.45 from 3/17/05.
On 7/25/05, Sugar posted a daily buy signal at 9.74.
On 7/29/05, Sugar posted its fourth weekly close above the major price breakout of 9.45 from 3/17/05.
This multiple four-week close above 9.45 confirms a major breakout.
Last week's high was 9.99.
Last week's low was 9.76.
Last month's high was 9.99.
Last month's low was 9.10.
WHAT DO THE CHARTS LOOK LIKE?
Let’s review the technical analysis that is driving the Sugar market.
The daily Sugar chart has developed a bullish “W” formation or a one-two-three bottom.
The all-important middle of the “W” is at 8.65. 
The long-term weekly Sugar chart has the same formation as the daily chart, which is a bullish “W” formation.
The all-important middle of the weekly “W” is at 8.85. 
The long-term monthly Sugar chart, which supports the daily and long-term weekly charts, has not only one but also possibly two “W” formations developing.
The all-important middle of the first monthly “W” is at 8.85.
The all-important middle of the second “W” is at 11.40.
Our short-term objectives are 12.88 and 18.87.
The main caveat still stands - that Sugar maintains a foothold above the middle of the first correlating “W,” which is at 8.85.
The second caveat is that Sugar maintains a foothold above the previous contract high of 9.45.
WHY IS THE 8.85 LEVEL SO IMPORTANT?
Last week I explained that besides the fact that 8.85 is the middle of the ‘W’ formation, 8.85 represents Sugars ‘intra-year’ buy signal and major trend change.
On 2/28/03, Sugar posted a high of 9.13.
On 12/31/03, Sugar posted a low of 5.66.
On 2/29/04, Sugar posted a low of 5.27.
On 10/31/04, Sugar posted a high of 9.37.
What does this mean?
1) Sugar on a yearly basis in 2004 posted lower lows than the previous year of 2003.
2) Sugar posted higher highs in 2004 than the previous year of 2003.
3) Sugar settled above the previous year’s settlement, confirming a trend change.
Each week I will continue to post Sugar’s past unfilled price gaps above the current market price so we can reference them quickly if the need presents itself.
1) Price gap between 11.72 and 11.80 (1/09/98).
2) Price gap between 13.50 and 13.61 (2/19/82).
3) Price gap between 19.80 and 19.85 (4/03/81).
4) Price gap between 25.85 and 26.20 (2/13/81).
5) Price gap between 31.25 and 31.30 (1/09/81).
6) Price gap between 33.85 and 35.05 (11/28/80).
7) Price gap between 51.20 and 53.20 (11/29/74).
8) Price gap between 59.20 and 61.10 (11/22/74).
Last week I discussed that Sugar had a well-defined upward trendline that began from lows of 8.32 through lows of 8.35, and lows of 8.77. If this trendline were touched, it would intersect at 9.30.
The upward trendline mentioned above is at a 20% angle and if touched today would now intersect at 9.57.
However, another well-defined upward trendline has emerged.
The new trendline is at an approx. angle of 30%.
This new trendline began from lows of 8.77 (6/15/05) through lows of 9.35 (7/21/05) and if touched today would intersect at 9.50.
Major support is at 9.50
WHY ARE DEGREES OF A TRENDLINE IMPORTANT?
When I began technical analysis in 1977, most traders did not understand or believe there was a relationship between charts and fundamentals.
During this period, I began learning point and figure charting and analysis (virtually unknown today).
In 1982, my ability to interpret point and figure analysis impressed Smith Barney so much that ten of their in-house traders switched their business from Smith Barney’s house desk to me. 
At that time, I only charted 30-year bonds using a 1x3, 2x6, 4x12 and 8x24 charts. I‘ve since moved to bar charts.
I began to utilize different methods to determine trends. One such method was using a protractor to determine a trend that would be solid enough to continue its directional movement, compared to a trend that had a short life span.
In my findings, it appeared that if a trendline began with a 20% angle and held that angle for an extended period, a more meaningful trend was developing.
This has been the case with Sugar.
The next subsequent angle that I found to support an ongoing trend was at a 30% angle - which it appears Sugar is attempting.
The next subsequent angle of the trendline would be the all-important 45% angle - which every technician has learned by reading technical analysis books - is the ideal trendline. 
The next subsequent angle of the trendline would be at a 60% angle. This would signify a blow-off price move or an emotional reaction.
After the 60% angle is exhausted, it is typical for prices to trade sideways against the trend until the 45% angle is touched again.
Then the process begins anew.
If my experience is a predictor of future results, Sugar is in a long-term price advance.
For several weeks, I described some Sugar option facts and will continue to provide updated information:
Last week Sugar options for a two-year ‘implied volatility’ average were ranked number 27 out of 45 - this week 22 out of 45 .
27) Sugar (SB) High 42.12% - Low 18.90% - Current 24.26%
Last week Sugar options for a one-year ‘implied volatility’ average were ranked number 21 out of 45 - this week 8 out of 45
21) Sugar (SB) High 33.54% - Low 18.90% - Current 24.26%
Sugar options for a six-month ‘implied volatility’ average were ranked number 34 out of 45 - this week 7 out of 45 .
17) Sugar (SB) High 27.18% - Low 18.90% - 24.26%
What do these numbers boil down to?
Sugar option volatility is moving higher.
WHAT WERE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO LAST WEEK?
Aggressive traders who either added to their existing long position or established long positions at the ‘intra-weekly’ buy signal of 9.04 were advised to move their stops below 9.25.
Aggressive traders who either added to their existing long position or established long positions at 9.13 were advised to move their stops below 9.25.
Aggressive traders who either added to their existing long position or established long positions at the ‘intra-day’ buy signal of 9.56 were advised to move their stops below 9.25.
Aggressive traders who either added to their existing long position or established long positions at the ‘intra-weekly’ buy signal of 9.61 were advised to move their stops below 9.25.
Options traders who purchased either March 1100 calls or March 1200 calls are advised to continue risking 100% of purchase price.
Last Monday, Sugar had a daily recommendation: buy when trades 9.74 - sell when trades 9.61.
If Sugar first posted a daily buy signal at 9.74 and posted a higher high than the previous week‘s high of 9.75, traders were advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing stops for this position only at 9.39, which was the most recent gap filled.
If Sugar posted a close above 9.82, traders were advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing stops for all positions below 9.30.
Conservative traders were advised to purchase either multiple March 1200 calls or March 1300 calls, risking 100% of purchase price.
WHAT SHOULD TRADERS DO NEXT WEEK?
Aggressive traders who either added to their existing long position or established long positions for the last several weeks are advised to move their stops below 9.33.
Options traders who purchased either March 1100 calls or March 1200 calls are advised to continue risking 100% of purchase price.
If Sugar first posts a higher high than last week’s high and last month’s high of 9.99, aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing stops for this position only at 9.75.
If Sugar first posts a lower low than last week’s low of 9.76, aggressive traders are advised to place resting buy stop orders at 10.00.
If this were to occur, traders are advised to place stops for this position only below 9.73.
If Sugar was to first post a lower low than last week’s low of 9.76, aggressive traders are advised to buy against support at 9.57, placing stops below 9.30.
Our next upside objective is 10.66.
If Sugar posts a close above 10.66, traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing stops for this position only below 10.33.
If Sugar does post a close above 10.66, traders should prepare for a possible assault on the previous high and the second ‘W’ of 11.40.
Our next price objective will be the gap between 11.72 and 11.80 (1/09/98).
On the flipside…
If Sugar first posts a close below 9.45, traders are to prepare for an assault on the original breakout at 9.30.
If Sugar were to post a weekly close below the original breakout at 9.30, traders are to prepare for an assault of the 100-day and 200-day moving average at 8.99 and 8.96 respectively.
If Sugar were to post a monthly close at or below the middle of the “W” at 8.85, aggressive traders are advised to establish a short position, placing stops above 9.10.
If Sugar first posts a higher high than last week’s high and last month’s high of 9.99 and then posts a monthly close at or below 9.10, aggressive traders are advised to establish a short position, placing stops above 9.45.
DAILY CHART:
http://bohl.minot.com/d_Chart.cgi?SB05V
------------
WEEKLY CHART:
http://bohl.minot.com/w_Chart.cgi?SB
----------------------------------------------------
S&P 500 (SP5U)
Three week’s ago I discussed the possibility that the summer rally could be in place. However, the September S&P would need a close at or above 1225.20 by the close of business July 29th.
July 29th the S&P closed the month at 1239.10, which indicates the summer rally should continue.
However, I am not convinced that the S&P is safe right now because many indicators are showing divergences that are inconsistent with the new highs that were posted last week.
Traders need to remain cautious and on high alert for a possible price failure.
The September S&P had been in an eight-week price advance that began from lows of 1143.00 (4/20/05) to highs of 1225.20 (6/17/05).
Recently, the S&P had been in a three-week price decline that began from highs of 1225.20 to lows of 1186.50 (7/07/05).
Currently, the S&P has traded from lows of 1186.50 to highs of 1248.00 (7/28/05).
The S&P has two unfilled price gaps above the current market price. The most recent is between 1249.30 and 1250.80.
The S&P has four unfilled price gaps below the current market price. The most recent gap is between 1180.50 and 1184.50.
On 7/07/05, the S&P posted an ‘intra-week’ buy signal at 1208.60.
On 7/12/05, the S&P posted an ‘intra-month’ buy signal at 1225.20.
On 7/20/05, the S&P posted an ’intra-day’ buy signal at 1233.90.
On 7/25/05, the S&P posted a ‘daily’ buy signal at 1238.10.
On 7/27/05, the S&P posted a ‘daily’ buy signal at 1237.60.
 
Last week’s high was 1248.00.
Last week’s low was 1230.80.
Last month’s high was 1248.00.
Last month’s low was 1186.50.
WHAT DO THE CHARTS LOOK LIKE?
As long as the S&P 500 maintains a foothold above the highs of 1993 - which was 1111.50, the S&P is in an up-trend.
Major support for the S&P is at the current ‘intra-week’ buy signal 1208.60.
Minor support for the S&P is at the current ‘intra-month’ buy signal 1225.20.
Last week I explained that if the S&P was able to post a monthly close at or above last month’s high of 1225.20 by the close of business July 29th, this would constitute a continuation of the current up-trend.
On Friday, the S&P closed the session at 1239.10.
Again, as I previously mentioned, many technical indicators have divergences with the contract highs posted at 1248.00 last week. This disturbs me.
WHAT WERE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO LAST WEEK?
Traders that established a long position in the S&P at the ‘intra-weekly’ buy signal at 1208.50 were advised to move their stops below 1225.20.
Traders that established a long position in the Emini S&P at the ‘intra-weekly’ buy signal of 1209.00 were advised to move their stops below 1225.20.
Traders that either added or established a long position in the S&P on a higher high than 1217.00 were advised to move their stops below 1225.20.
Traders that either added or established a long position in the S&P on a weekly close above 1225.20 were advised to move their stops below 1225.20.
Traders that either added or established a long position in the S&P on a pull back to minor support of 1225.20 were advised to move their stops below 1225.20.
If the S&P posted a daily buy signal at 1238.10, traders were advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing all stops at 1228.40. 
If the S&P posts a higher high than last week’s high of 1239.80, traders were advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing all stops at 1228.40. 
Our short-term objective was to fill the unfilled price gap above the current market price between 1249.30 and 1250.80.
WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
Traders that established a long position in the S&P over the last several weeks are advised to either leave their stops below 1225.20 or liquidate their long positions.
If the S&P first posts a higher high than last week’s high and last month’s high of 1248.00, traders are not advised to add to their existing long position or establish a long position. Traders are advised to move all stops to 1230.70. 
Our short-term objective will be to fill the unfilled price gap above the current market price between 1249.30 and 1250.80. Traders are advised to liquidate 50% of their long positions if the gap were to be filled and move all stops below 1241.80.
Our long-term objective will be 1263.90
On the flipside…
If the S&P were to first post a higher high than last week’s high and last month’s high at 1248.00 yet reverse and post a close below 1230.80, traders are to prepare for a possible attack on the ‘intra-month’ buy signal at 1225.20.
If the S&P posts a close below 1224.00, traders are to prepare for a possible price failure.
If the S&P posts a close below 1216.70, traders are advised to establish a short position, placing stops above 1225.20.
If the S&P posts a close below 1208.50, traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position and prepare for an all out attack on the 1200.70 support level.
If the S&P were to post a monthly close below 1186.50, traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing stops above 1200.70.
Our objective will be the unfilled price gap below the current market price between 1180.50 and 1184.50.
DAILY CHART:
http://bohl.minot.com/d_Chart.cgi?SP05U
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WEEKLY CHART:
http://bohl.minot.com/w_Chart.cgi?SP
----------------------------------------------------
- DECEMBER SOYBEAN OIL (BO5Z)
- NOVEMBER SOYBEANS (S5X)
- DECEMBER WHEAT (W5Z)
- DECEMBER SOYBEAN MEAL (SM5Z)
This week all the products listed above have monthly recommendations and in addition, Soybeans, Soybean Meal and Soybean oil have weekly recommendations.
Because all four products are intertwined and virtually influence each other, I will design a ’trading module’ for Soybeans - the king of the group. 
NOVEMBER SOYBEANS (S5X)
November Soybeans had been in an eighteen-week price advance from lows of 519.50 (2/09/05) to highs of 770.00 (6/22/05).
Recently, Soybeans have been in a volatile trading range between 751.00 highs and 666.00 lows.
Soybeans need to have multiple closes either above 751.00 or below 666.00 to breakout of the current trading range. Until this occurs, Soybeans will continue in its volatile trading range.
Confirmation of a breakout on the upside would be a close above 770.00.
Confirmation of a breakout on the downside would be a close below 660.50.
Soybean’s 100-day moving average is at 657.25 and 200-day moving average is at 608.75.
Soybeans have four unfilled price gaps below the current market price. The most recent is between 646.50 and 651.00.
Soybeans have no unfilled price gaps above the current market price.
 
Last week’s high was 711.00.
Last week’s low was 670.00.
Last month’s high was 751.00.
Last month’s low was 666.00.
WHAT WERE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO LAST WEEK?
November Soybeans were still developing a possible monthly recommendation for August, which would not be revealed until the close of business July 29th.
I stated ‘It had been my experience that when a group of related products - in this case grains - were all developing potential monthly recommendations, it was time to step back and sit on the sidelines.’
Traders were advised to wait for possible monthly recommendations in these products to develop for August. This would give traders direction and momentum.
For the last several weeks I found it practical to let the locals (pit traders), hedge funds, and commercial funds search for price discovery and when the dust settled, our true direction would be revealed.
Bottom line:  Preserve your capital.
WHAT SHOULD TRADERS DO NEXT WEEK?
Soybeans have a weekly recommendation for next week: buy when trades 711.25 - sell when trades 669.75.
Soybeans have a monthly recommendation for August: buy when trades 751.25 - sell when trades 665.75.
If Soybeans first post a weekly buy signal at 711.25, aggressive traders are advised to establish a long position, placing stops at 669.75.
Conservative traders are advised to purchase November 780 calls, risking 70% of purchased value.
If Soybeans were to post a close above 719.00, aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing a stop for this position only below 711.25.
If Soybeans were to post a close above 735.50, aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing a stop for this position only below 719.00.
If Soybeans were to post a close above 741.00, traders are to prepare for an assault on the monthly buy signal at 751.25.
Traders are advised if this were to occur to move all stops below 719.00.
If Soybeans post a monthly buy signal at 751.25, traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing all stops below 735.50.
Conservative traders are advised to purchase November 800 calls, risking 70% of purchased value.
If Soybeans post new contract highs and close above contract highs at 770.00, traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing all stops below 751.25.
Our first objective will be 810.00.
Our second objective will be 836.00.
On the flipside…
If November Soybeans first post a weekly sell signal at 669.75, aggressive traders are advised to establish a short position, placing a stop and reverse resting order at 711.25.
If this was to occur and the stop was activated, traders would effectively be long and are advised to place their stops below 700.00.
If Soybeans post a monthly sell signal at 665.75, aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing a stop and reverse resting order at 711.25.
Conservative traders are advised to purchase November 640 puts, risking 70% of purchased value.
If this was to occur and the stop was activated, traders would effectively be long and are advised to place their stops below 700.00.
If Soybeans post a close below 660.50, traders are to prepare for an all out assault on the 100-day moving average at 657.25 and possibly the unfilled price gap between 646.50 and 651.00.
If this were to occur, aggressive traders are advised to move all stops above 669.75
Our first objective will be to fill the price gap between 646.50 and 651.00.
If Soybeans post a weekly close below 634.75, aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing all stops above 651.00.
Our second objective will be the second unfilled price gap between 618.00 and 621.00.
Our long-term objective will be 581.00
DAILY CHART:
http://www.bohl.minot.com/d_Chart.cgi?S05X
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WEEKLY CHART:
http://www.bohl.minot.com/w_Chart.cgi?S
----------------------------------------------------
SEPTEMBER US 30-YEAR BOND (US5U)
Three weeks ago I discussed that 30-year Bonds had been placed on ‘chart watch’ because of a possible monthly recommendation for August, which will not be revealed until the close of business July 29th.
Last week I moved the 30-year Bond to ‘Tech Talk’ because of a possible monthly breakdown from a nine-week trading range.
I wrote that until bonds posted a monthly close below 115-26 or a monthly close above 119-23, they still appeared to be in congestion.
Friday, Bonds posted a decisive close below 115-26, ending the week and month at 115-10.
Bonds have no unfilled price gaps above the current market price.
Bonds have four unfilled price gaps below the current market price. The most recent gap is between 113-26 and 113-29. The second unfilled price gap is between 112-14 and 112-20.
The Bonds 100-day moving average is at 114-24 and the 200-day moving average is at 113-05.
Last week’s high was 116-15.
Last week’s low was 115-01.
Last month’s high was 119-04.
Last month’s low was 114-29.
WHAT DO THE CHARTS LOOK LIKE?
Bonds have the appearance of a bearish ‘M’ formation or a one-two-three top.
The middle of the ‘M’ is at 115-26.
The projection from this potential ‘M’ formation is 112-23.
WHAT WERE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO LAST WEEK?
If the 30-year Bond posted a close at or below 115-25 by the close of business July 29th, traders were advised to establish a short position, placing stops above 116-22.
Conservative options traders were advised to purchase either December 113 puts or December 112 puts, risking 60% of purchase price.
Be prepared for an explosive trading opportunity.
WHAT SHOULD TRADERS DO NEXT WEEK?
Aggressive traders who established a short position at or above 115-10 are advised to move stops above 115-26.
Conservative options traders who purchased puts are advised to hold their December 113 puts or December 112 puts, risking 60% of purchase price. Or unless Bonds close above 115-26 on a weekly basis. If the 30-year Bond first rallies to minor resistance at 115-15, aggressive traders are advised to add to their existing short position, placing stops above 115-26.
If the 30-year Bond posts a lower low than last month’s low at 114-29, aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing stops for this position only above 115-15.
If Bonds post a weekly close below 114-07, aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing all stops above 115-01.
Our first objective will be 113-08.
If Bonds post a close below 113-01, aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing all stops above 114-07.
Our second objective will be the unfilled price gap between 112-14 and 112-20.
On the flipside….
If Bonds were to close on a weekly basis above 115-26, traders are advised to sit on the sidelines and wait for another trading opportunity.
DAILY CHART:
http://bohl.minot.com/d_Chart.cgi?US05U
------------
WEEKLY CHART:
http://bohl.minot.com/w_Chart.cgi?US
----------------------------------------------------
DECEMBER GOLD (GC5Z)
Two week’s ago December Gold was placed on ‘chart watch’ because of a possible monthly recommendation for August, which would not be revealed until the close of business July 29th.
Last week Gold was placed in ‘Tech Talk’ because of a pending daily recommendation, a weekly recommendation, and a possible monthly recommendation for August.
I explained that this trading opportunity might turn out to be a more complex monthly recommendation.
Why more complex? 
Because my feeling was that Gold might also develop a monthly recommendation in August that would not be revealed until the close of business September 30th.
I admitted that this scenario about a possible ’double’ monthly recommendation or ‘coil month’ might be wrong. However, if it were to occur - it would be explosive.
In addition, I explained that Gold must continue in a trading range for July below 450.00 and above 421.70, which did occur by Friday‘s close at 435.80.
Now - if all goes as planned, this month (August) we will need to remain below 444.00 and above 424.20.
I will develop several ‘trading modules’ so we can prepare for either a breakout from congestion or develop a ‘coil month.’
December Gold has two unfilled price gaps above the current market price. The most recent is between 452.80 and 453.50.
On 7/25/05, Gold posted a weekly buy signal at 432.10.
On 7/27/05, Gold posted an ‘intra-day’ buy signal at 430.50.
On 7/28/05, Gold posted a buy signal at 431.60, which was the ‘neckline’ breakout of a ‘head and shoulders’ bottom.
Gold has no unfilled gaps below the current market price.
Gold’s 100-day moving average is at 436.80.
Gold’s 200-day moving average is at 440.25
Last week’s high was 436.50.
Last week’s low was 427.70.
Last month’s high was 444.00.
Last month’s low was 424.20.
WHAT DO THE CHARTS LOOK LIKE?
The daily December Gold chart had formed a bullish ‘head and shoulders’ bottom.
The ‘left’ shoulder was established between 428.00 lows and 434.00 highs.
The ‘head’ developed between 431.00 highs and 424.20 lows.
The ‘right’ shoulder developed between 430.00 highs and 427.70 lows.
The all-important ‘neckline’ was at 431.60.
The projection from this mini ‘head and shoulders’ bottom, is 441.80.
The December weekly Gold chart appears to be developing either a pennant formation or a descending right triangle.
Both formations are posting lower highs.
The pennant formation or descending right triangle is posting higher lows.
The downward trendline of the pennant or right triangle begins from highs of 471.00 through highs of 450.00 and if touched today would intersect at 446.40.
The upward trendline of the pennant begins from lows of 394.40, through lows of 413.20 and if touched today would intersect at 424.70.
If the formation is a descending right triangle, the lower horizontal trendline has posted lows of 421.50 (10/13/04), lows of 422.10 (2/08/05) and lows of 421.00 (5/31/05).
The long-term weekly Gold chart has an upward channel that began from lows of 271.70 through lows of 320.10 and if touched today would intersect at 400.00.
The long-term monthly Gold chart has an upward channel that began from lows of 277.20 (1/03/02) through lows of 320.10 and if touched today would intersect at 401.00.
Gold has been trading in a six-month range between 415.50 lows and 442.50 highs.
WHAT WERE TRADERS ADVISED LAST WEEK?
Gold had a daily recommendation for last Monday: buy when trades 431.90 - sell when trades 430.10.
Gold had a weekly recommendation last week: buy when trades 432.10 - sell when trades 424.40.
Gold was developing a possible monthly recommendation for August, which would not be revealed until the close of business July 29th.
If Gold first posted its daily buy signal at 431.90, aggressive traders were advised to establish a long position, placing stops below 424.40.
If Gold first posted a weekly buy signal at 432.10, aggressive traders were advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing stops at 424.40.
If Gold posted a close above 434.00, aggressive traders were advised to either add to their exiting long position or establish a long position, placing stops below 428.80.
Conservative traders were advised to wait for a possible monthly recommendation to develop for August.
WHAT SHOULD TRADERS DO NEXT WEEK?
For August, December Gold has a monthly recommendation: buy when trades 444.10 - sell when trades 424.10.
Aggressive traders who established long positions at the daily buy signal of 431.90 are advised to move their stops below 427.70.
Aggressive traders who either added to their existing long position or established a long position at the weekly buy signal of 432.10 are advised to move their stops below 427.70.
Aggressive traders, who either added to their existing long position or established a long position at the ‘neckline’ breakout of the ‘head and shoulders’ bottom at 431.60, are advised to move their stops below 427.70.
Aggressive traders who either added to their existing long position or established a long position at a close above 434.00 are advised to move their stops for this position only below 431.00.
If Gold first pulls back in price to support at 432.40, aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing stops for this position only below 431.00.
If Gold first posts a higher high than last week’s high of 436.50, aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing stops for this position only below 431.00.
Our objective will be 441.80.
If Gold posts a monthly buy signal at 444.10, aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing all stops below 436.50.
Major resistance is at 446.60.
On the flipside…
If Gold first posts a higher high than last week’s high of 436.50 yet reverses below 431.00, traders are to be on guard for a possible price failure.
If gold posts a close below 427.40, aggressive traders are to place resting sell stop orders at the monthly sell signal of 424.10.
If this were to occur, then traders would effectively be short and are advised to place their stops above 431.00.
Our first objective will be a challenge of recent lows of 421.00.
If Gold posted a weekly close below 421.00, traders are advised to either add to their exiting short position or establish a short position, placing all stops above 427.40.
Our second objective will be 414.40.
Remember, if Gold fails to post either the monthly buy signal at 444.10 or the monthly sell signal at 424.10 by the close of business August 31st, then Gold will have a ‘coil’ month in September.
If this were to occur, a major move would be imminent.
Note: Gold options for a two-year ‘implied volatility’ were ranked 45 out of 45 last week and are ranked 44 out of 45 this week.
Options are cheap.
DAILY CHART:
http://www.bohl.minot.com/d_Chart.cgi?GO05Z

------------
WEEKLY CHART:
http://www.bohl.minot.com/w_Chart.cgi?GO

CHART WATCH by Scott R. Joss (Non member C.T.A)*

Readers and clients call during the week and ask: What are you watching?

Watching can mean that the markets are developing a 'recommendation' or a chart pattern that has not yet fully developed - or may never develop.

During the course of the week or month it is not uncommon to find an `intra-day, intra-week or intra-month' recommendation that was previously not revealed when this newsletter was written.

Products that currently fit into this 'watch' category are listed below and should be 'watched.'

- No 'Chart Watch' this week.

CURRENT 'MONTHLY' RECOMMENDATIONS
FOR AUGUST:

- U.S. 30-YEAR BOND (US4U)
- SOYBEANS (S5X)
- WHEAT (W5Z)
- SOYBEAN MEAL (SM5Z)
- SOYBEAN OIL (BO5Z)
- GOLD (GC5Z)
- LEAN HOGS (LH5V)
- COFFEE (KC5Z)
 

FUTURE WATCH

Future watch will list developing 'monthly' recommendations to watch in August for September. By listing these products, traders can `feed-forward' with anticipation and focus - centering on products that will provide direction and hopefully, opportunity.
Traders should begin studying the 'daily', 'weekly' and 'monthly' charts for the products listed below. Don't forget between now and the end of the month, some or all of these products may be de-listed.
'Monthly' recommendations will be revealed on the close of business August 31 and sent via email for September.

- U.S. 30-YEAR BOND
- SOYBEANS
- WHEAT
- SOYBEAN MEAL
- SOYBEAN OIL
- GOLD
- LUMBER
- LEAN HOGS
- PORK BELLIES

NOTE:

If you do not completely understand this information, you are advised to take NO action until speaking with your Account Executive.

ClearTrade, Inc. may be reached at 800-493-4444

====================================

* Recommendations and Newsletter prepared by Scott Joss, Non- Member C.T.A.

Scott Joss is a 'non member' CTA and is providing recommendations to ClearTrade, Inc. clients. Scott Joss 'is a principal' of ClearTrade, Inc. and 'is a registered IB member' with the NFA.

====================================

ClearTrade, Inc.
5415 N. Sheridan Rd.
Suite 2104
Chicago, IL 60640

(800) 493-4444
(773) 561-9777 Voice
(773) 561-9775 Fax

Mailto:research@cleartrade.com 
http://www.cleartrade.com/ 


====================================

DISCLAIMER:

* COMING EVENTS AND DATA RELEASES:

Calendar provided by Briefing.com, Inc. Data is provided for informational purposes only, and is not intended for trading purposes. Neither ClearTrade, Inc. nor any of its data or content providers (such as Reuters, CSI, and Briefing.com) shall be liable for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.

Market recommendations are strictly the opinion of the writer and are intended solely for informative purposes and are not to be construed, under any circumstances, by implication or otherwise, as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or trade in any commodities or securities herein named. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve substantial risk. In no event should the content of a market letter be construed as a promise that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever.

Unless otherwise indicated, the links presented in this newsletter are in no way affiliated with ClearTrade, Inc. Likewise, sites linked through ClearTrade's newsletter are not necessarily connected with ClearTrade, nor do any such links imply an endorsement by either party.

ClearTrade, Inc. does not necessarily promote or endorse the services or publications described herein. Unless otherwise indicated, ClearTrade Inc. has had no role in the production or review of these products or services and makes no warranty, either expressed or implied, as to their contents, accuracy or performance.

Past results are no indication of future performance. Information provided in this newsletter is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted.
Scott Joss is a 'non member' CTA and is providing recommendations to ClearTrade, Inc. clients. Scott Joss 'is a principal' of ClearTrade, Inc. and 'is a registered IB member' with the NFA.

NOTE: Past results are no indication of future performance. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted.

REPRODUCTION OR REBROADCAST OF ANY PORTION OF THIS INFORMATION IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED WITHOUT THE WRITTEN PERMISSION OF CLEARTRADE, INC.

The contents of this newsletter are copyright 1997-2005, Scott R. Joss/ClearTrade, Inc. *TM. All Rights Reserved.

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