WELCOME TO THE JOSS REPORT - WEEKLY TRADE ADVISOR
The Joss Report trading recommendations and weekly trade advisor newsletter was first published in October 1998. Since that time, the Joss Report research has continued to evolve into an important source of technical insight for many traders. Our goal is to provide traders with a 'trading plan' to prepare for the trading day and week ahead.
ClearTrade's own technical analyst, Scott Joss*, is a veteran futures trader with twenty-eight years experience on and off the trading floor - as a technical analyst, pit trader, account executive handling arbitrage for Smith Barney, former member of the CBOT, non-member CTA and presently an IB. Scott prepares technical analysis in selected market groups when an opportunity presents itself and not only develops 'trading modules' on selected trading opportunities but 'feeds-forward', advising traders what to expect and how to react.
 At ClearTrade, we think it’s helpful to speak directly with traders who have requested The Joss Report research and may be interested in establishing an account with us. Understanding your trading needs and goals is important. And we think you should have an opportunity to get to know who we are and what we offer on a one to one basis.
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The Joss Report Weekly Trade Advisor should be used in conjunction with the Joss Report Daily Recommendations, Weekly Recommendations and Monthly Recommendations.

The Joss Report Archived Weekly Trade Advisor 2005
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• TECH TALK - SUGAR - NASDAQ - SOYBEANS - TEN-YEAR NOTE - SILVER  
•  CHART WATCH - COTTON - COPPER - U.S. CASH DOLLAR - COCOA
•  CURRENT 'MONTHLY' RECOMMENDATIONS
•  FUTURES WATCH
•  COMING EVENTS AND DATA RELEASES

I attended a symposium on Friday – the highlight of which was the guest speaker, the one and only Jim Rogers. To quote my fiancé, who also attended: “The most interesting people tend to be the most interested.” A down-home raconteur, Jim Rogers reminds me of Will Rogers… with a portfolio, a renaissance man. He travels the world with spirit and wonder… sleeping in huts, drinking warm camels’ milk…. not the usual itinerary of a hugely successful finance guy. Ever notice that the really smart people ask the most questions, are curious about the world around them?

TECH TALK by Scott R. Joss (Non member C.T.A)*

MARCH SUGAR (SB6H)
Last week I advised traders who have established long positions over the past fifteen-weeks in the October Sugar contract to roll their trade positions into the March contract. In addition, I began developing an exit strategy for options traders who have purchased March 110 and 120 calls.
Each week I stress to traders that the Sugar ‘trading modules’ I develop are long-term trades that may span a year or more to achieve. Because of the possible length of the trade, traders have been advised to establish long positions in March 2006 futures and options, then rolling forward as time approaches.
My belief technically and fundamentally is that sugar prices will go much higher - not only in the short-term but in years to come - based on two very bullish ’W’ formations. These ’W’ formations have developed on the daily, weekly and monthly charts.  Click here to view 'W' formations.
The long positions in Sugar were based originally on daily, weekly, and monthly trade signals from the July contract, then the October contract - and now, the March contract.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday - indicated that the change in open interest decreased due to October options expiration and  spreads this week. Last week open interest increased by +8,649 contracts and this week decreased by -15,145, posting a total open interest of 468,489 contracts. 
Last week, several indicators bothered me. There was an increase in open interest and I noticed that March option prices would not budge higher when futures prices surged.
Next week traders are faced with a new problem.
The six-week volatility of March Sugar options is at 100%.
Last week traders were advised not to despair. I reminded them that the July futures contract also had a very large open interest going in to first notice day. Everyone worried that Sugar would collapse with such a huge open interest - however, just the opposite happened.  
In came Cargill, the major Ag conglomerate, taking delivery against the futures contract. Sugar posted a 1.13-cent price advance.
Can this happen again?  Sure… but as always, traders must prepare for the worst…. a price correction, and anticipate the best, an upward price surge.
Traders should take note that this coming week we will see some key reports and news events.
On 9/22/05, the all-important Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook Summary will be released.
On 9/22/05, Thailand will have their second auction of 300,000 to 400,000 metric ton of sugar for delivery in 2005-06.
On 9/22/05, the EU will decide if they should unload surplus sugar on world market or abide by WTO rules.
By Alan Beattie, World Trade Editor
Published: September 12 2005 03:00 | Last updated: September 12 2005 03:00

The European Union is planning to push more than 2m tonnes of surplus sugar on to the world market in spite of a World Trade Organization ruling that such exports are illegal.
The proposal, which is likely to draw a strong rebuke from other sugar- producing countries, would sell sugar from the EU's internal stocks abroad to prevent domestic oversupply. The European Commission will make its recommendation this week. According to officials, it is likely to involve 2m-2.5m tonnes of sugar, compared with annual EU production of about 17m tonnes. The proposal, set to be agreed this month, will go to representatives of the member states next week.
Australia Urges EU to Comply with WTO Sugar Rulings
Sept. 16 2005
Press Release - Minister of Trade
Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Trade, Mark Vaile, and the Minister for Agriculture Fisheries and Forestry, Peter McGauran, have warned the EU that Australia will continue to push hard against EU plans to increase exports of subsidized sugar this year.
"Action to increase sugar exports would come at a time when the EU is required to take steps to reduce its sugar exports, consistent with World Trade Organization dispute rulings," Mr. Vaile said.
On 9/30/05 is the last trading day for October Sugar futures.
Can the Sugar market absorb this much supply?
March Sugar has been in a multi-year price advance, which began from lows of 6.12 (2/13/04) to recent highs of 10.94 (9/16/05).
March Sugar began its current price advance from lows of 9.85 (8/22/05) to recent highs of 10.94. (9/06/05).
March Sugar has eight unfilled price gaps above the current market price, which are listed here.
March Sugar has five unfilled price gaps below the current market price. The most recent unfilled price gap is between 10.21 and 10.23. The next unfilled price gap is between 9.96 and 10.00.
For thirteen-weeks, March Sugar has closed above its 40-day moving average and 50-day moving average - which as of Friday was at 10.25 and 10.13, respectively.
Sugar closed Friday at 10.88, which is above its 100-day moving average of 9.52 and its 200-day moving average of 9.23.
To view the past trade signals that July and October Sugar has posted, click here.
Below are the most recent trade signals Sugar has posted.
On 8/24/05, March Sugar posted a weekly buy signal at 10.18.
On 8/29/05, March Sugar posted a daily buy signal at 10.22.
On 9/06/05, March Sugar posted a daily buy signal at 10.70.
On 9/15/05, March Sugar posted a ‘Coil’ daily buy signal at 10.83.
WHAT WERE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO LAST WEEK?
Aggressive traders who either added to their existing long position or established long positions for the last several weeks in October Sugar were advised to move all stops below 9.99. (Traders and their account executives needed to discuss this suggested stop).
Options traders who purchased either March 1100 calls or March 1200 calls were advised to continue risking 100% of purchase price. (The options purchased were designed for the long-term trader). 
Below were the possible ‘trading modules’ for traders to consider. 
1) If October Sugar first posted a lower low than last week’s low of 10.04 yet reversed, traders were to anticipate entering ‘spread’ orders at 10.36 to roll their longs from the October contract to the March contract. Resting spread orders were to be written by indicating in equal contracts to buy the March Sugar and sell the October Sugar at the ‘market price.’ This spread would liquidate trader’s established long October Sugar positions and leave traders with long March Sugar positions.
If this spread were to be activated, traders were advised to place stops for the established long March contract below 9.74, which was last month’s low.
2) If October Sugar activated ‘trading module #1,’ traders would be long March Sugar with stops placed below 9.74.  If March Sugar posted a weekly close above 10.79, aggressive traders were advised to either add to their existing long March position or establish a long March position, placing stops for this position only below 10.60.
Our first objective would be a challenge of 10.88.
Our next objective would be the first unfilled price gap between 11.72 and 11.80.
3) If October Sugar first posted a higher high than the previous week’s high of 10.34, traders were advised to remain long their established positions, placing all stops at 10.03.
If this stop at 10.03 were to be activated, traders would be flat the October Sugar and would have to wait for another March trade signal before re-entering the market. 
4) If October Sugar first posted a higher high than the previous week’s high of 10.34 and a higher high than last month’s high of 10.35 yet does not reverse, traders were to remain long the October Sugar.
Traders would remain long October Sugar until another opportunity arose to roll to the March contract.
On 9/15/05, March Sugar posted a daily ‘Coil’ buy signal at 10.83 that gave traders with established long October positions to activate ‘trading module’ #1. Traders were advised to have a special offset so they would be long March Sugar futures at 10.83.
On Friday, March Sugar posted a weekly close above 10.79, which activated ‘trading module’ #2.
WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
Aggressive traders who are long March Sugar from 10.83 are advised to move all stops below 10.61, which was last month’s high. (Traders and their account executives need to discuss this suggested stop).
Traders who either added to their existing long position or established a long position on a weekly close above 10.79 are advised to leave stops for this position only below 10.61.
Options traders who purchased either March 1100 calls or March 1200 calls are advised to continue risking 30% of market value. (The options purchased are designed for the long-term trader). 
Below are the possible ‘trading modules’ for traders to consider next week: 
1) If March Sugar first posts a lower low than last week’s low of 10.66 yet reverses, traders are to place resting buy stop orders at 10.95.
If this were to occur, traders who are long on a weekly close above 10.79 and traders who anticipate either adding or establishing a long position at 10.95 are advised to place stops for these positions only at 10.61. (Traders and their account executives need to discuss this suggested stop).
2) If March Sugar first posts a higher high than last week’s high of 10.94 yet reverses, traders who are long on a weekly close above 10.79 are advised to move their stops to 10.65.
If this stop at 10.65 were to be activated, traders long from 10.79 will be flat the October Sugar and will have to wait for a March trade signal before re-entering the market. 
Our next objective will be a challenge of the psychological 11.40 level, which is the middle of the second all-important ‘W.’
3) If March Sugar first posts a higher high than last week’s high of 10.94 yet does not reverse, traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position at 11.16.
If this were to occur, traders who either added to their existing long position or established a long position at 11.16 are advised to place stops for this position only below 10.94. (Traders and their account executives need to discuss this suggested stop).
Our next objective will be the first unfilled price gap between 11.72 and 11.80.
WHAT EXIT STRATEGY SHOULD OPTION TRADERS HAVE?
Last week I began developing an exit strategy for options traders who have purchased March 110 and 120 calls over the last fifteen-weeks. We need to prepare for not only a possible downward price correction but also a major price advance.
Why should futures traders and March options traders have an exit strategy when they have over four-months until expiration?
Last week I explained that the projection from the first ’W’ formation on the daily, weekly and monthly charts indicate our first main objective will be 13.29.
I also explained how I arrived at this projection:
The low for the ‘W’ was 4.97 (6/30/02).
The middle of the ‘W’ is at 9.13 (2/28/03).
We subtracted the middle of the ‘W’ of 9.13 from the low of the ‘W’ at 4.97.
9.13 - 4.97 = 4.16-cents
We then added 4.16-cents to the middle of the ‘W’ of 9.13-cents.
9.13 + 4.16 = 13.29 cents.
If March Sugar were to trade to 13.29 before expiration, futures and options traders were advised to liquidate all positions and wait for a price pullback before re-entering.
If Sugar were to fill the first unfilled price gap between 11.72 and 11.80, acceleration in prices would be explosive. 
In addition, I went a step further by researching the average of the 2-year, 1-year, and 6-month volatility for Sugar and concluded that volatility may reach 33.87% or higher. This would be almost 100% of the average volatility. As of Friday, Sugar options for six-month ‘implied volatility’ average were at 100% of their range. (Caution - this may indicate a possible top).
Last week I gave an example of Lumber as a product that reached 100% of its volatility range.
I pointed out that lumber prices have fallen since Hurricane Katrina and suggested that it didn’t make sense. Everyone on the news is talking about rebuilding New Orleans.
Lumber price volatility will need to come down before prices will move up. This could take a while to get longs out of the market.
Meantime, there are still no major buyers entering the lumber futures. Why? Because the cash dealers have plenty of inventory on hand to ship and will sell their product directly to the consumer.
Each week there are two cash lumber quotes reported. On Wednesday and Friday, the Random Lengths cash report comes out. Bids and offers were at $337 last week. Why are lumber future prices falling? Because cash dealers only need to use the futures market to hedge for future price discrepancy.
       
This scenario may occur in Sugar as well - so let’s prepare.
Generally, Sugar over the years has reached a peak in prices between October 15th and November 15th.
1) If Sugar prices pull back, posting a close below 10.61, traders will be faced with a decision to liquidate their March 110 and 120 calls or sell March 130 calls as a hedge. (Traders need to consult their account executive on a strategy that fits their trading profile). Futures traders were advised where to place their stops earlier in this piece.
2) If Sugar prices do not close on a weekly basis below 10.61 yet post  highs of 13.29, options traders are advised to either exit all their long positions or 50% of their positions.
If traders opt to liquidate 50% of their options positions on the outside chance of further price advances to 17.98, traders will be advised where to place futures stops to protect their call positions. (Traders need to consult their account executive on a strategy that fits their trading profile).
3) If Sugar prices advance to 13.29 cents yet reverses, traders are to prepare for a major price pullback to between 10.50 and 10.90. This pullback could take three-weeks or three-months.
If this were to occur, options traders will be advised to purchase July 120 Sugar calls between 22 and 26.
I will avoid the October 2006 contract because the harvest season is between September and December of each year.
If all goes well in the next eight-months, we’ll begin to watch March of 2007.
What I do not want to happen is for Sugar prices to fall next week because of the six-month 100% volatility - or explode in price to 13.29 in a blow off rally… and then prices drop dramatically. If this was to occur, all March 110 and 120 calls would expire worthless in February 2006 - so we always want to stay four to seven-months ahead of the market in options. 
4) If Sugar prices advance to 13.29 cents yet do not reverse and post a close above 14.60, options traders are to prepare for a major upward price explosion to sweet sixteen.
On the flipside…
If October Sugar first posted a higher high than last week’s high of 10.94 yet reverses, posting a weekly close below last week’s low of 10.66 and a weekly close below last month’s high of 10.61, traders are to prepare for an assault on the 40-day moving average of 10.25 and possibly an attack on the 50-day moving average at 10.13.
If long futures traders are stopped out of the market, they are advised to sit and wait for the next progression of buy signals before re-entering the Sugar market.
If long options traders are hedged or have exited their March positions, they are advised to sit and wait for the next progression of buy signals before re-entering the July Sugar options.
Normally, I would suggest the short or long side of any market when it reverses and posts weekly or monthly trade signals. However, I am reluctant to establish any short positions in Sugar because of the bullish ‘W’ formations on the daily, weekly and monthly charts.
Each week I will continue to post Sugar’s past unfilled price gaps above the current market price so we can reference them quickly if the need presents itself. Please view past upside gaps here.
For many weeks I’ve described some Sugar option facts and will continue to provide updated information:
Last week Sugar options for a two-year ‘implied volatility’ average were ranked number 13 out of 45 - this week 8 out of 45 .
8) Sugar (SB) High 42.12% - Low 18.90% - Current 28.14%
Last week Sugar options for a one-year ‘implied volatility’ average were ranked number 7 out of 45 - this week 2 out of 45
7) Sugar (SB) High 33.54% - Low 18.90% - Current 28.14%
Last week Sugar options for a six-month ‘implied volatility’ average were ranked number 5 out of 45 - this week 2 out of 45 .
5) Sugar (SB) High 27.18% - Low 18.90% - 28.14%
Options are on the expensive side.
DAILY CHART MARCH SUGAR:
http://bohl.minot.com/d_Chart.cgi?SB05H
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WEEKLY CHART:
http://bohl.minot.com/w_Chart.cgi?SB
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DECEMBER NASDAQ 100 (ND5Z)
Last week I developed a ‘trading module’ on the December NASDAQ 100.
The December NASDAQ has been in a thirteen-week price advance that began from lows of 1432.50 (4/28/05) to highs of 1646.50 (8/03/05).
Recently, the NASDAQ had been in a downward price decline that began from highs of 1646.50 to recent lows of 1568.00.
Currently, the NASDAQ has been in a two-week price advance that began from lows of 158.00 to highs of 1634.00.
The NASDAQ has one unfilled price gap above the current market price. The most recent unfilled price gap is between 1634.00 and 1636.50.
The NASDAQ has several unfilled price gaps below the current market price. The most recent gap is between 1555.50 and 1568.00. The second unfilled price gap below the current market price is between 1522.00 and 1542.00.
The 40-day moving average is currently at 1609.50 and the 50-day moving average is at 1606.00.
The 100-day moving average is currently at 1566.00 and the 200-day moving average is at 1535.50.
On 8/29/05, the NASDAQ posted an intra-day buy signal at 1580.50.
On 8/31/05, the NASDAQ posted a daily buy signal at 1584.00.
On 8/31/05, the NASDAQ posted an intra-weekly buy signal at 1601.50.
The daily chart shows the NASDAQ in an upward channel that was penetrated on the downside on 8/29/05. However, the NASDAQ has recovered and appears to have regained its upward momentum still in the channel.
The NASDAQ is potentially developing a monthly recommendation for October if prices stabilize and trade in an extended trading range for the next two-weeks.
Last week I explained that the NASDAQ might be forming a bullish 'V' bottom if it can maintain a foothold above its 45-degree trendline at 1601.50, which was the intra-weekly buy signal.
WHAT WERE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO LAST WEEK?
Below were the possible ‘trading modules’ for traders to consider; 
Aggressive traders who established a long position in the NASDAQ 100 at the intra-weekly buy signal at 1601.50 were advised to leave their stops below 1568.00 for now.
1) If the NASDAQ first posted a higher high than the previous week’s high of 1625.00, aggressive traders were advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing stops for this position only at 1592.00. (Traders and their account executives need to discuss this suggested stop).
Conservative traders were advised to use the Mini NASDAQ as a trading vehicle.
The first challenge would be to fill the previously unfilled gap between 1630.50 and 1636.50.
2) If the NASDAQ posted a close above the gap at 1636.50, traders were to prepare for a challenge of contract highs at 1646.50.
Conservative traders were advised to use the Mini NASDAQ as a trading vehicle.
3) If the NASDAQ posted a weekly close above 1648.50, aggressive traders were advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing all stops below 1625.00.
Conservative traders were advised to use the Mini NASDAQ as a trading vehicle.
4) If the NASDAQ first posted a lower low than last week’s low of 1593.50 yet reversed, traders were advised to place resting stop entry orders at 1625.50 to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position.
If the resting stop entry order were to be activated, traders were advised to move all stops below 1592.00.
Our long-term objective would be 1668.50.  
On the flipside…
If the NASDAQ first posted a lower low the previous week’s low of 1593.50 yet did not reverse, traders were advised to sit on the sidelines and wait for another trading opportunity.
WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
Aggressive traders who established a long position in the NASDAQ 100 at the intra-weekly buy signal at 1601.50 are advised to leave their stops below 1568.00.
Aggressive traders who either established a long position or established a long position on a higher high than the previous week’s high of 1625.00 are advised to leave stops for this position at 1592.00.
Aggressive traders who either established a long position or established a long position against support at 1601.50 are advised to leave stops 1592.00.
Below are the possible ‘trading modules’ for traders to consider next week: 
1) If the NASDAQ first posts a higher high than last weeks high of 1634.00, aggressive traders are advised to not add to their existing positions. 
Aggressive traders who either established a long position or established a long position on a higher high than the previous week’s high of 1625.00 are advised to move their stops to 1597.00.
Aggressive traders who either established a long position or established a long position against support at 1601.50 are advised to move their stops to 1597.00.
Aggressive traders who established a long position in the NASDAQ 100 at the intra-weekly buy signal at 1601.50 are advised to leave their stops below 1568.00.
The first challenge will be to fill the previously unfilled gap between 1630.50 and 1636.50.
If the NASDAQ posts a close above 1636.50, aggressive traders are to prepare for an assault on contract highs at 1646.50.
If the NASDAQ posts a higher high than last months high of 1646.50, aggressive traders are advised to wait to add to their existing positions or establish a long position on a close above 1648.50, placing all stops below 1634.00.
2) If the NASDAQ first posts a lower low than last week’s low of 1597.50 yet reverses, aggressive traders are advised to place resting stop orders at 1634.50 to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing all stops at 1597.00.
Our long-term objective will be 1668.50.  
On the flipside…
If the NASDAQ first posts a lower low than last week’s low of 1597.50 yet does not reverse, traders that would be stopped out of their established long positions at 1592.00 are advised to sit on the sidelines and wait for a possible monthly recommendation for October to establish direction.
Aggressive traders who established a long position in the NASDAQ 100 at the intra-weekly buy signal at 1601.50 are advised to leave their stops below 1568.00.
3) If the NASDAQ posts a monthly close below 1568.00, aggressive traders are advised to establish a short position, placing stops above 1601.50.
If this were to occur, our first downside projection will be the unfilled price gap below the current market price between 1555.50 and 1568.00.
My trading instinct tells me that the NASDAQ may possibly trade in an extended range in September so that a monthly recommendation for October will develop. 
DAILY CHART:
http://bohl.minot.com/d_Chart.cgi?ND05Z
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WEEKLY CHART:
http://bohl.minot.com/w_Chart.cgi?ND
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NOVEMBER SOYBEANS (S5X)
In my July 31st newsletter I began developing a ‘trading module’ for November Soybeans.
November Soybeans had been in an eighteen-week price advance from lows of 519.50 (2/09/05) to highs of 770.00 (6/22/05).
Soybeans had been in a volatile trading range between 751.00 highs and 666.00 lows.
I noted at the inception of this trade that Soybeans were an extremely volatile product and should only be traded by aggressive traders. This was not for the inexperienced trader or the faint of heart.
Clients were cautioned that they must have an equity to risk ratio of no more than 9% to trade this product. That meant if the risk in Beans was $4,275 - you must have an account size of $39,000 per contract.
If you did not fit this profile, I suggested that traders consult their account executive and consider an options strategy.
Does this mean traders shouldn’t establish a short position or add to their short positions?
In previous weeks my answer was No, but this week traders need to weigh the equity to risk ratio of establishing a short position.
The six-month volatility is at 0% indicating a possible bottom may be near.
Soybeans have been in a nine-week price decline from highs of 751.00 to recent lows of 568.00.
Soybean’s 40-day moving average is at 632.25 and 50-day moving average is at 647.50.
Soybean’s 100-day moving average is at 659.50 and 200-day moving average is at 619.00.
Soybeans have two unfilled price gaps below the current market price - the most recent between 547.00 and 551.50.
Soybeans have two unfilled price gaps above the current market price - the most recent is between 587.00 and 589.00.
On 8/05/05, Beans posted a weekly sell signal at 669.75.
On 8/05/05, Beans posted a monthly sell signal at 665.75.
On 8/09/05, Soybeans confirmed a breakout on the downside by closing below 660.50.
On 8/12/05, Beans posted an ‘intra-day’ sell signal at 649.00.
On 8/19/05, Beans posted a daily sell signal at 619.25.
On 9/08/05, Beans posted a daily sell signal at 601.25.
On 9/09/05, Beans posted an intra-daily sell signal at 599.25.
 
WHAT WERE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO LAST WEEK?
Below were the possible ‘trading modules’ for traders to consider; 
Aggressive traders who established a short position at the weekly sell signal of 669.75 were advised to leave their stops above 630.00 for now.
Aggressive traders who either added to their existing short position or established a short position at the monthly sell signal of 665.75 were advised to leave their stops above 630.00 for now.
Aggressive traders who either added to their existing short position or established a short position at the second posting of the monthly sell signal of 665.75 were advised to leave their stops above 630.00 for now.
Conservative traders who purchased November 620 puts were advised to risk 20% of current market value.
Aggressive traders who either added to their existing short position or established a short position at 595.25 were advised to move their stops for this position only above 618.00.
1) If Beans first posted a lower low than the previous week’s low of 589.00, aggressive traders were to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing all existing stops at 618.25.
2) If Soybeans posted a close at or below 581.00, traders were to prepare for an all out assault on the unfilled price gap between 547.00 and 551.50.
If this were to occur, traders were advised to move all existing stops above 595.50.
Last week I noted to all Soybean traders that they were advised to exit their short positions by September 28th because of a seasonal tendency to trade higher. 
If traders were to exit their Soybeans by September 28th, they were advised to sit on the sidelines and wait for another trading opportunity.
WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
For next week November Soybeans have a daily recommendation: buy when trades 573.75 - sell when trades 567.75.
Aggressive traders who established a short position at the weekly sell signal of 669.75 are advised to move their stops above 595.50 for now.
Aggressive traders who either added to their existing short position or established a short position at the monthly sell signal of 665.75 are advised to move their stops above 595.50 for now.
Aggressive traders who either added to their existing short position or established a short position at the second posting of the monthly sell signal of 665.75 are advised to move their stops above 595.50 for now.
Conservative traders who purchased November 620 puts are advised to risk 20% of current market value.
Aggressive traders who either added to their existing short position or established a short position at 595.25 are advised to move their stops above 581.00 for now.
1) If Soybeans first posts the daily sell signal at 567.75, aggressive traders are not advised to add to their existing short position, traders should move all existing stops above 585.25.
2) If Soybeans post a close below 564.00, aggressive traders should prepare for an assault on the unfilled price gap between 547.00 and 551.50. Aggressive traders are advised to lower their stops to 573.75.
3) If Soybeans first post the daily sell signal at 567.75 yet reverses, traders are advised to move all stops to 573.75.
If this was to occur and traders were stopped out of their existing short positions, aggressive traders are to wait for another trading opportunity.
Conservative traders who purchased November 620 puts are advised to risk 15% of current market value.
On the flipside…
1) If Beans first post a daily buy signal at 573.75 yet reverse, aggressive traders are advised to place resting sell stop orders at 567.75.
If the resting sell stop orders at 567.75 are activated, aggressive traders are advised to move all resting stop orders to 573.50.
2) If Beans first post a daily sell signal at 567.75 yet reverse - triggering all stops at 573.75, traders are advised to sit on the sidelines and wait for another trading opportunity.
DAILY CHART:
http://www.bohl.minot.com/d_Chart.cgi?S05X
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WEEKLY CHART:
http://www.bohl.minot.com/w_Chart.cgi?S
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DECEMBER TEN-YEAR NOTE (TY5Z)
Last week I developed a ‘trading module’ for December 10-year notes because of a ‘coil’ daily recommendation for last Monday and a weekly recommendation for last week.
The December Ten-Year Note had been in a four-week up trend from lows of 109-015 to highs of 112-200.
Recently, Notes have traded from highs of 112-200 to lows of 110-155.
On 8/12/05, Notes posted an intra-weekly buy signal at 110-065.
On 8/16/05, Notes posted a daily buy signal at 110-150.
On 8/18/05, Notes posted a daily buy signal at 110-215.
On 8/30/05, Notes posted a daily buy signal at 111-060.
On 9/12/05, Notes posted a ‘Coil’ daily sell signal at 111-145
On 9/12/05, Notes posted a weekly sell signal at 111-145
Notes have several unfilled price gaps below the current market price. The most recent is between 109-300 and 109-310.
Notes have one unfilled price gap above the current market price between 112-255 and 112-300.
Notes appeared to be forming a bullish ‘V’ bottom from lows of 109-015. However, Notes needed to maintain a foothold above 110-260, which was the 45 degree angle of the ’V’.
Friday, Ten-Year Notes closed at 110-195 - below the required 110-260 price support.
Notes 40-day moving average is at 110-235 and the 50-day moving average is at 110-250.
Notes 100-day moving average is at 111-085 and the 200-day moving average is at 110-145.
On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve Board meets to decide if interest rates will move higher by a .25% - again.
WHAT WERE TRADERS ADVISED LAST WEEK?
Below were the possible ‘trading modules’ for traders to consider; 
Last Monday the December Ten Year Note posted a daily sell signal at 111-145.
Monday’s daily sell signal at 111-145 -  as I explained last week -  would not only be a daily recommendation but a ’coil’ day. A coil day is different from a normal daily recommendation in that when it posts its signal, it lashes violently in that direction. The previous week, Gold had a ’coil’ day and once it posted its buy signal at 450.30, away it went to 463.70.
Generally, the direction of the ‘coil’ day signal will set the tone for the overall direction for many days.  
In addition, as I mentioned previously, the December Ten Year had a weekly recommendation last week: buy when trades 112-065 - sell when trades 111-090.
On 9/12/05, the Ten-Year posted not only its ‘Coil’ day sell signal but posted its weekly sell signal at 111-090.
1) If Notes first posted a daily sell signal at 111-145, traders were advised to establish a short position, placing stops at 112-065.
2) If Notes posted a weekly sell signal at 111-090, traders were advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing stops at 112-065.
3) If Notes posted a weekly close below the ‘V’ trendline at 110-260, traders were advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing all stops above 111-090.
Our first objective would be the unfilled price gap between 109-300 and 109-310.
WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
Traders who established a short position at the daily sell signal of 111-145 are advised to lower their stops above 111-090.
Traders who either added to their short position or established a short position at the weekly sell signal of 111-090 are advised to lower their stops above 111-090.
Traders who either added to their short position or established a short position at the weekly close below support at 110-260 are advised to leave their stops above 111-090.
1) If the Note first posts a lower low than last week’s low of 110-155, traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing stops above 111-090.
Conservative traders are advised to purchase December 110-000 puts, risking 70% of purchase price.
2) If notes post a close below 110-065, traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing stops for this position only above 110-155.
Our first objective will be the unfilled price gap between 109-300 and 109-310.
3) If Notes post a close below 109-265, traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing all stops above 110-255.
Conservative traders are advised to purchase December 109-000 puts, risking 70% of purchase price.
4) If Notes post a close below 109-105, traders are to prepare for a possible ‘intra-monthly’ sell signal at 109-010.
5) If Notes post a monthly close at or below 109-010, traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing all stops above 109-310.
If this was to occur and Notes posted a close at or below 109-010 by the close of business September 30th, this would constitute a change in trend.
On the flipside…
1) If Notes first post a lower low than last week’s low of 110-155 yet reverses, posting a weekly close above 111-235, traders are advised to sit on the sidelines and wait for another trading opportunity.
DAILY CHART:
http://www.bohl.minot.com/d_Chart.cgi?TY05Z
------------
WEEKLY CHART:
http://www.bohl.minot.com/w_Chart.cgi?TY
----------------------------------------------------
DECEMBER SILVER (SI5Z)
Nine-weeks ago I began developing a ‘trading module’ for September Silver, which was put on the back burner until a weekly or monthly signal was posted.
At that time, I wrote about a pennant formation that was developing, which included a pole. Because the pennant had a pole, I felt that any price move Silver made would be a continuation pattern on the upside.
In addition, I wrote that September Silver needed to remain above 6.850 or a price collapse could occur.
On August 28th, Silver - to my surprise - posted an ‘intra-monthly’ sell signal that turned the charts and traders upside down. This phenomenon was due mostly in part to the dead days of summer - which was apathy in the markets, and the disaster in Louisiana.
This week I will write on December Silver because of an ‘intra-weekly’ buy signal that was posted on Friday at 7.175.
December Silver has been in a yearly trade range between 6.490 lows and 7.810 highs.
Silver’s 40-day moving average is at 7.105 and 50-day moving average is at 7.110.
Silver’s 100-day moving average is at 7.175 and 200-day moving average is at 7.190.
Note: This product is extremely volatile and should only be traded by aggressive traders. This is not for the inexperienced trader or the faint of heart.
Clients are being cautioned that they must have an equity to risk ratio of no more than 9% to trade this product.
Silver’s ‘intra-week’ trading risk is $1,325. That means you must have an account size of $12,000 per contract.
If you do not fit this profile, I suggest that traders consult their account executive and consider an options strategy.
On 9/15/05, December Silver posted an ’intra-daily buy signal at 7.075.
On 9/16/05, December Silver posted an ‘intra-weekly’ buy signal at 7.175.
WHAT DO THE CHART LOOK LIKE?
Silver appears to have formed a bullish ‘head and shoulders’ bottom.
The left shoulder was developed from highs of 7.300 (8/11/05) to lows of 7.000 (8/15/05).
The head was established between highs of 7.180 (8/22/05) and lows of 6.705 (8/30/05).
The left shoulder developed between highs of 7.170 (9/08/05) and 6.910 (9/13/05.
The all-important neckline breakout occurred at 7.175 on Friday.
The upside price objective will be 7.770.
How did I arrive at our upside objective?
First, I took the left shoulder high of 7.300 and subtracted the low of the head at 6.910.
7.300 - 6.705 = 59.5-cents
I then added the 59.5-cents to the breakout at 7.175
7.175 + 59.5 = 7.770
WHAT WERE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO LAST WEEK?
Aggressive traders were advised to establish a long position at the ‘intra-day’ buy signal of 7.075, placing stops at 6.980.
Aggressive traders were advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position at the ‘intra-weekly’ buy signal of 7.175, placing stops below 6.980.
Conservative traders were advised to purchase either December 7.10 or 7.20 calls, risking 50% of purchase price.
WHAT SHOULD TRADERS DO NEXT WEEK?
Aggressive traders who established a long position at the ‘intra-day’ buy signal of 7.075 are advised to move stops below 7.010.
Aggressive traders who either added to their existing long position or established a long position at the ‘intra-weekly’ buy signal of 7.175 are advised to move stops below 7.010.
Conservative traders who purchased either December 7.10 or 7.20 calls are advised to continue risking 50% of purchase price.
1) If Silver first pulls back to the ‘intra-weekly’ buy signal at 7.175, aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing stops below 7.010. (Traders and their account executives need to discuss this suggested stop).
Conservative traders are advised to purchase either December 7.10 or 7.20 calls, risking 50% of purchase price.
2) If Silver first posts a higher high than last week’s high of 7.320, aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing stops for this position only below 7.175. (Traders and their account executives need to discuss this suggested stop).
Conservative traders are advised to purchase either December 7.20 or 7.30 calls, risking 50% of purchase price.
3) If Silver posts a higher high than last month’s high of 7.400, aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing stops for all positions below 7.175. (Traders and their account executives need to discuss this suggested stop).
Conservative traders are advised to purchase either December 7.30 or 7.50 calls, risking 50% of purchase price.
Our objective is 7.770.
On the flipside…
1) If Silver first posts a higher weekly high than last week’s high of 7.320 yet reverses, posting a weekly close below 6.910, traders are to sit on the sidelines and wait for another trading opportunity.
DAILY CHART:
http://www.bohl.minot.com/d_Chart.cgi?SV05Z
------------
WEEKLY CHART:
http://www.bohl.minot.com/w_Chart.cgi?SV

 CHART WATCH by Scott R. Joss (Non member C.T.A)*

Readers and clients call during the week and ask: What are you watching?

Watching can mean that the markets are developing a 'recommendation' or a chart pattern that has not yet fully developed - or may never develop.

During the course of the week or month it is not uncommon to find an `intra-day, intra-week or intra-month' recommendation that was previously not revealed when this newsletter was written.

Products that currently fit into this 'watch' category are listed below and should be 'watched.'

CASH U.S. DOLLAR (DXY$Y)
In my August 28th newsletter, I added the U.S. Dollar and Cash U.S. Dollar to ‘Chart Watch’. This will remain on a longer-term basis watch because of a possible bullish ‘head and shoulders’ bottom formation.
In addition, I wrote that we would center on the cash Dollar chart because of the rollovers every three-months in the Dollar futures. It will be easier to identify with one continuous product price than to keep changing.
I know that my U.S. Dollar watch is very unpopular because most traders believe the U.S. Dollar is in a multi-year decline and will continue to do so.
My job as a technical analyst is to report what the market is telling me. Many months from now, I may report a completely different formation that instructs me to change what I write but for now - this is what I see.
The U.S. Dollar futures and the cash U.S. Dollar may be forming a ‘head and shoulders’ bottom on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts.
The cash Dollar daily chart shows the ‘left’ shoulder was developed between 92.25 highs (5/13/04) to lows of 87.00 (7/19/04).
The daily chart shows the ‘head’ with a ‘W’ formation was established between 80.42 lows and 86.93 highs, with the middle of the ‘W’ at 85.44.
The daily chart shows the current development of the ‘right’ shoulder between highs of 90.77 and lows of 86.02.
The weekly chart gives support to the daily cash chart.
The weekly chart shows the ‘left’ shoulder developed between 87.02 lows and 92.29 highs.
The ‘head’ with a ‘W’ formation was established between 80.39 lows and 86.93 highs.
The ‘right’ shoulder is developing between 90.77 highs and 86.02 lows.
The all-important ‘neckline’ breakout is at 90.48 if touched today.
The monthly cash Dollar chart supports the daily and weekly charts.
The monthly chart shows the ‘left’ shoulder developed between 87.02 lows and 92.29 highs.
The ‘head’ with a ‘W’ formation was established between 80.39 lows and 87.82 highs.
The ‘right’ shoulder is developing between 90.77 highs and 86.02 lows.
The all-important ‘neckline’ breakout is at 90.66 if touched today.
WHAT DOES ALL OF THIS MEAN?
It appears that the U.S. Dollar may be forming a long-term bottom, which may take between two to four- months to develop.
Once the formation is complete, our long-term objective will be 11.90 from the breakout.
My guess right now is it will be around 102.16.
I will keep traders informed on a monthly basis.
DAILY CHART:
http://www.bohl.minot.com/d_Chart.cgi?DX05Z
------------
WEEKLY CHART:
http://bohl.minot.com/w_Chart.cgi?DX
----------------------------------------------------
DECEMBER COCOA (CC5Z)
This week Cocoa will be added to 'Chart Watch' because of a possible 'intra-monthly' sell signal for September.
On August 28th, I discussed that December Cocoa had posted a potential ‘intra-monthly’ sell signal at 1377, which would not be confirmed until the close of business on August 31st.
If Cocoa posted a monthly close at or below 1377 by August 31st, this would constitute a major trend reversal.
On September 1st, Cocoa - due to Hurricane Katrina - reversed direction, negating the intra-monthly sell signal.

This month again, Cocoa is faced with an ‘intra-monthly’ sell signal.
If Cocoa posts a close at or below 1370, this would constitute a trend reversal.  
WHY A TREND REVERSAL?
Cocoa posted highs in August of 1537.
Cocoa posted highs in September at 1575.
Cocoa posted lows in August of 1370.
If Cocoa posts a close at or below 1370 by the close of trading September 30th, this would constitute an ‘intra-monthly’ sell signal and a trend change.
In addition, I explained in the August 28th newsletter that Cocoa has the potential to post an ‘intra-yearly’ sell signal at 1297, which were last year’s low.
If Cocoa posts a close below 1296, traders may see a dramatic collapse.
Our objective would be 858.
Take note that Cocoa has a bearish ‘island’ reversal top that formed between 9/02/05 and 9/09/05.
Note: Traders must have an equity to risk ratio of no more than 10% to trade this product.
That means the risk trading the ‘intra-monthly’ sell signal (from 1575 to 1370) in Cocoa is $2,050; you must have an account size of $20,000 per contract.
If you do not fit this profile, I suggested that traders consult their account executive and consider an options strategy.
On 9/09/05, Cocoa posted an ‘intra-daily’ sell signal at 1542.
Cocoa’s 40-day moving average is at 1453.
Cocoa’s 50-day moving average is at 1451.
Cocoa’s 100-day moving average is at 1481.
Cocoa’s 200-day moving average is at 1556.
WHAT WERE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO LAST WEEK?
Aggressive traders who established a short position at the ‘intra-day’ sell signal of 1542 were advised to move stops to 1516.
Conservative traders who purchased March 130 puts were advised to continue risking 100% of purchase price.
WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
Aggressive traders who established a short position at the 'intra-day' sell signal of 1542 are advised to move stops above 1481 for now.
Conservative traders who purchased March 130 puts were advised to continue risking 100% of purchase price for now.
1) If Cocoa posts a close at or below 1370 by the close of business September 30th, aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing all stops above 1450.
2) If Cocoa posts a close below 1296, traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing all stops above 1413.
Conservative traders are advised to purchase March 120 puts, risking 100% of purchase price.
On the flipside….
1) If Cocoa were to post a monthly close above 1370 by the close of business September 30th, traders are advised to exit their short positions and wait for another trading opportunity.
DAILY CHART:
http://www.bohl.minot.com/d_Chart.cgi?CC05Z
------------
WEEKLY CHART:
http://www.bohl.minot.com/w_Chart.cgi?CC
----------------------------------------------------
DECEMBER COTTON (CT5Z)
Last week December Cotton was added to ’Chart Watch’ because of a possible monthly recommendation developing for October.
Cotton has been in an eight-week price decline that began from highs of 57.20 (7/05/05) to recent lows of 47.76 (8/19/05).
Recently, Cotton had a price advance from lows of 47.80 (8/15/05) and 47.76 (8/19/05) to highs of 52.90.
Several weeks ago, I posed the question: Will Cotton try to use these lows as a stopping point and post a mini ‘spread double’ bottom.
Currently, Cotton has been in a two-week price decline that began from highs of 52.90 to lows of 49.38.
Cotton may be developing a bullish ‘head and shoulders’ bottom formation.
Major support, if this were to occur, is at last week’s low of 49.38.
Our first upside objective, if Cotton can maintain a foothold above 49.38, would be 58.14.
Cotton has several price gaps above the current market price. The most recent unfilled price gap is between 51.30 and 51.50.
On 8/04/05, Cotton posted a daily sell signal at 52.19.
On 8/10/05, Cotton posted a close below the ‘M’ or middle of a ‘double reversal’ at 51.09.
On 8/24/05, Cotton posted an ‘intra-day’ sell signal at 48.64.
On 8/29/05, Cotton posted a daily buy signal at 48.51.
On 9/09/05, Cotton posted a daily sell signal at 51.64.
On 9/15/05, Cotton posted a daily sell signal at 49.55.
Cotton’s 40-day moving average is at 50.41.
Cotton’s 50-day moving average is at 50.70.
Cotton’s 100-day moving average is at 52.27.
Cotton’s 200-day moving average is at 52.34.
WHAT WERE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO LAST WEEK?
1) Traders were advised to sit on the sidelines and wait to see if a monthly recommendation developed for October.
2) If Cotton posts a monthly recommendation for October, traders will have a defined risk and direction.
3) If Cotton does not post a monthly recommendation, then traders will have to rely on a weekly or daily recommendation to enter this market.
WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
1) Traders are advised to sit on the sidelines and wait for a possible monthly recommendation for October, which will not be revealed until the close of business September 30th. If this were to occur, traders will receive the monthly recommendations the evening of September 30th - via email.
DAILY CHART:
http://www.bohl.minot.com/d_Chart.cgi?CT05Z
------------
WEEKLY CHART:
http://www.bohl.minot.com/w_Chart.cgi?CT
----------------------------------------------------
DECEMBER COPPER (HG5Z)
Last week I added December Copper to ‘Chart Watch’ because of a possible intra-monthly sell signal.
If December Copper were to close at or below 156.00 by the close of business September 30th, this would constitute a major trend reversal.
Copper has been in a multi-year price advance that began from lows of 97.95 to recent highs of 169.10.
For seven-weeks, December Copper has traded in an extended trading range between 156.00 lows and 165.70 highs. On 9/02/05 and 9/07/05, Copper attempted to break out of the trading range but this upward price advance was rejected. Since the beginning of September, Copper was back into an extended trading range.
Copper has now placed itself in jeopardy - by revealing the upward price rejection - of a possible major trend reversal. The nearer we get to the end of the month, Copper bears watching.
WHAT SHOULD TRADERS DO NEXT WEEK?
1) If Copper posts a weekly close below 156.00, aggressive traders are advised to establish a short position, placing resting stops and reverse orders above 165.70.
Remember, aggressive traders are not to risk an equity to risk ratio of more than 10%.
The ‘intra-monthly’ sell signal and trend reversal is $2,425 - so traders must have an account size of $24,000 or more per contract.
Conservative traders will be not be able to participate in this trade because of the lack of volume in Copper options.
DAILY CHART:
http://www.bohl.minot.com/d_Chart.cgi?HG05Z
------------
WEEKLY CHART:
http://www.bohl.minot.com/w_Chart.cgi?HG

CURRENT 'MONTHLY' RECOMMENDATIONS
FOR SEPTEMBER:

- DOW JONES

FUTURE WATCH

Future watch will list developing 'monthly' recommendations to watch in September for October. By listing these products, traders can `feed-forward' with anticipation and focus - centering on products that will provide direction and hopefully, opportunity.
Traders should begin studying the 'daily', 'weekly' and 'monthly' charts for the products listed below. Don't forget between now and the end of the month, some or all of these products may be de-listed.
'Monthly' recommendations will be revealed on the close of business September 30 and sent via email for October.

- NATURAL GAS
- WHEAT
- S&P 500
- EMINI S&P
- NASDAQ 100
- MINI NASDAQ
- DOW JONES
- SILVER
- CRUDE OIL
- COTTON
- ORANGE JUICE

COPYRIGHT WARNING AND NOTICE: It
is a violation of federal copyright law to
reproduce all or any part of this publication or
its contents by email, facsimile, xerography,
scanning or any other means, without
permission.
Copyright 2005, Joss Report - S.R. Joss Inc and ClearTrade Inc. All rights reserved.
If you are receiving this report from any other source than S.R. Joss Inc or ClearTrade Inc. please contact us at 1-800- 493-4444.

NOTE:

If you do not completely understand this information, you are advised to take NO action until speaking with your Account Executive.

ClearTrade, Inc. may be reached at 800-493-4444

====================================

* The Joss Report Trade Recommendations and Weekly Trade Advisor Newsletter is prepared by Scott Joss, Non- Member C.T.A.

Scott Joss is a 'non member' CTA and is providing the Joss Report weekly trading advisor newsletter and trade recommendations to ClearTrade, Inc. clients. Scott Joss 'is a principal' of ClearTrade, Inc. and 'is a registered IB member' with the NFA.

====================================

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* COMING EVENTS AND DATA RELEASES:

Calendar provided by Briefing.com, Inc. Data is provided for informational purposes only, and is not intended for trading purposes. Neither ClearTrade, Inc. nor any of its data or content providers (such as Reuters, CSI, and Briefing.com) shall be liable for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.

Market recommendations are strictly the opinion of the writer and are intended solely for informative purposes and are not to be construed, under any circumstances, by implication or otherwise, as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or trade in any commodities or securities herein named. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve substantial risk. In no event should the content of a market letter be construed as a promise that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever.

Unless otherwise indicated, the links presented in this publication/newsletter are in no way affiliated with ClearTrade, Inc. Likewise, sites linked through ClearTrade's Joss Report weekly trade advisor newsletter are not necessarily connected with ClearTrade, nor do any such links imply an endorsement by either party.

ClearTrade, Inc. does not necessarily promote or endorse the services or publications described herein. Unless otherwise indicated, ClearTrade Inc. has had no role in the production or review of these products or services and makes no warranty, either expressed or implied, as to their contents, accuracy or performance.

Past results are no indication of future performance. Information provided in this newsletter is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted.

REPRODUCTION OR REBROADCAST OF ANY PORTION OF THIS INFORMATION IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED WITHOUT THE WRITTEN PERMISSION OF S.R. JOSS INC./CLEARTRADE, INC.

The contents of this newsletter are copyright 1997-2005, Scott R. Joss/S.R. Joss Inc./ClearTrade, Inc. *TM. All Rights Reserved.

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