WELCOME TO THE JOSS REPORT - WEEKLY TRADE ADVISOR
The Joss Report trading recommendations and weekly trade advisor was first published in October 1998. Since that time, the Joss Report research has continued to evolve into an important source of technical insight for many traders. Our goal is to provide traders with a 'trading plan' to prepare for the trading day and week ahead.
ClearTrade's own technical analyst, Scott Joss*, is a veteran futures trader with twenty-eight years experience on and off the trading floor - as a technical analyst, pit trader, account executive handling arbitrage for Smith Barney, former member of the CBOT, non-member CTA and presently an IB. Scott prepares technical analysis in selected market groups when an opportunity presents itself and not only develops 'trading modules' on selected trading opportunities but 'feeds-forward', advising traders what to expect and how to react.
 At ClearTrade, we think it’s helpful to speak directly with traders who have requested The Joss Report research and may be interested in establishing an account with us. Understanding your trading needs and goals is important. And we think you should have an opportunity to get to know who we are and what we offer on a one to one basis.
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The Joss Report Weekly Trade Advisor should be used in conjunction with the Joss Report Daily Recommendations, Weekly Recommendations and Monthly Recommendations.

The Joss Report Archived Weekly Trade Advisor 2005
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• TECH TALK - SUGAR - COCOA - SOYBEANS - SILVER - CRUDE OIL   
•  CHART WATCH - COTTON - U.S. CASH DOLLAR - WHEAT
•  CURRENT 'MONTHLY' RECOMMENDATIONS
•  FUTURES WATCH
•  COMING EVENTS AND DATA RELEASES

TECH TALK by Scott R. Joss (Non member C.T.A)*

MARCH SUGAR (SB6H)
For the last two weeks I have advised traders who had established long positions in the October 2005 Sugar contract to roll their trade positions into the March 2006 contract. In addition, I began developing an exit strategy for options traders who purchased March 110 and 120 calls over the last sixteen-weeks.
Each week I stress to traders that the Sugar ‘trading modules’ I develop are long-term trades that may span a year or more to achieve. Because of the possible length of the trade, traders have been advised to establish long positions in March 2006 futures and options, then rolling forward as time approaches.
My belief technically and fundamentally is that sugar prices will go much higher - not only in the short-term but in years to come - based on two very bullish ’W’ formations. These ’W’ formations have developed on the daily, weekly and monthly charts. 
The long positions in Sugar were based originally on daily, weekly and monthly trade signals from the July 2005 contract, then the October 2005 contract - and now, the March 2006 contract.
The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday - indicated that the change in open interest last week increased by +18,449, posting a total open interest of 486,938 contracts. 
Last week I described several indicators that had negative implications for Sugar prices.
1) There was an increase in open interest to record levels.
2) March option prices would not advance higher with futures prices.
3) October/March spreaders were exiting their positions, which could put pressure on the March contract.
4) The six-week volatility of March Sugar options was at 100%. I cautioned traders that this might indicate a possible top.
5) The EU proposed unloading surplus sugar on the world market.
Were these factors a precursor to a short-term correction?
I reminded traders that they should not despair because this same scenario had occurred when the July Sugar contract headed into its last trading day. October Sugar’s last trading day is on 9/30/05. 
Traders were advised to prepare for the worst…. a price correction, and anticipate the best… an upward price surge.
Remember, technically sugar has a very powerful bullish ‘W’ formation on the daily, weekly and monthly charts. All price corrections should be short lived and shallow, between 50 and 70 points. Why? Because sugar has a tightening domestic demand-supply balance. Estimates of output for the 2005-06 sugar season (October-September) vary widely.  Furthermore, price corrections are healthy for future price advances because profits are taken, new shorts are established, and weak longs are displaced.
WHAT SHOULD TRADERS WATCH NEXT WEEK?
1) Expiration of the October futures contract.
2) On 9/28/05, Thailand will have their second auction of 200,000 to 300,000 metric tons of sugar for delivery in 2005-06.
3) Damage assessment will begin for sugar cane crops.
WHAT DOES THE MARCH SUGAR CHART LOOK LIKE?
I will be watching a possible ‘V’ top formation that may indicate March Sugar is entering a period of consolidation.
The ‘V’ top formation trendlines are at approximately 35% angles.
The ’V’ top formation will be negated if last week’s highs at 10.90 are penetrated.
On the flipside…
Sugar’s lows last week of 10.31 may have left a downside exhaustion tail, which could be construed as bullish.  
 
March Sugar has been in a multi-year price advance, which began from lows of 6.12 (2/13/04) to recent highs of 10.94 (9/16/05).
March Sugar began its current price advance from lows of 9.85 (8/22/05) to recent highs of 10.94. (9/06/05).
Currently, Sugar posted a possible short-lived downward price correction from highs of 10.94 to lows of 10.31 (9/21/05).
March Sugar has eight unfilled price gaps above the current market price - which are listed here.
March Sugar has five unfilled price gaps below the current market price. The most recent unfilled price gap is between 10.21 and 10.23. The next unfilled price gap is between 9.96 and 10.00.
For fourteen-weeks, March Sugar has closed above its 40-day moving average and 50-day moving average - which as of Friday was at 10.38 and 10.26, respectively.
March Sugar closed Friday at 10.64, which is above its 100-day moving average of 9.64 and its 200-day moving average of 9.29.
Below are the most recent trade signals Sugar has posted.
On 8/24/05, March Sugar posted a weekly buy signal at 10.18.
On 8/29/05, March Sugar posted a daily buy signal at 10.22.
On 9/06/05, March Sugar posted a daily buy signal at 10.70.
On 9/15/05, March Sugar posted a ‘Coil’ daily buy signal at 10.83.
On 9/20/05, March Sugar posted a daily sell signal at 10.75.
On 9/23/05, March Sugar posted a daily buy signal at 10.70.
WHAT WERE FUTURES TRADERS ADVISED TO DO LAST WEEK?
1) Aggressive traders who were long March Sugar from 10.83 were advised to move all stops below 10.61, which was last month’s high. (Traders and their account executives were advised to discuss this suggested stop).
2) Aggressive traders who either added to their existing long position or established a long position on a weekly close above 10.79 were advised to move stops below 10.61.
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On 9/21/05, March Sugar futures traders were advised to liquidate their existing long positions on the proposed stop of 10.61.  (Trading modules #1 and #2).
On 9/23/05, aggressive traders were advised to re-establish 50% of their long futures positions on the daily buy signal of 10.70.
WHAT WERE OPTIONS TRADERS ADVISED TO DO LAST WEEK?
1) Options traders who had purchased either March 1100 calls or March 1200 calls for the previous fifteen-weeks were advised to continue risking 30% of market value. (The options purchased were designed for the long-term trader). 
On 9/21/05, traders were advised to liquidate their March 110 and 120 Sugar calls on the proposed 30% risk rule suggested. (Trading module #1).
On 9/23/05, options traders were advised to re-establish 50% of their 110 and 120 call positions on the daily buy signal of 10.70.
WHAT ARE FUTURES TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
Aggressive traders who re-established 50% of their long futures positions on the daily buy signal of 10.70 are advised to place stops for this position below 10.31.
Below are possible ‘trading modules’ for futures traders to consider next week.
1) If March Sugar first posts a higher high than last week’s high of 10.90 and posts a monthly close above recent contract highs of 10.94, aggressive futures traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position.
If ‘trading module’ #1 is activated, aggressive traders are advised to place stops at 10.30. (Traders and their account executives need to discuss this suggested stop).
2) If March Sugar posts a monthly close above 11.16, aggressive futures traders are advised to either add to their existing long positions or establish a long position.
If this were to occur, traders who either added to their existing long position or established a long position at 11.16 are advised to place stops for this position only below 10.90. (Traders and their account executives need to discuss this suggested stop).
Our next objective will be the first unfilled price gap between 11.72 and 11.80.  
3) If March Sugar first posts a higher high than last week’s high of 10.90 and posts a higher high above recent contract highs of 10.94 - yet reverses, aggressive futures traders are advised to view their long positions with an air of caution.
If ‘trading module’ #1 were to occur, aggressive futures traders are advised to watch the closing price of March Sugar on September 30th, which is the last trading day of the month. Futures traders will be advised where to move their stops in the October 2nd Joss Report.
4) If March Sugar were to post a close at or below 9.74 on the close of business September 30th, aggressive futures traders will have been stopped out of their established long positions and are advised to sit on the sidelines. If this were to occur, traders should wait for another trading opportunity.
WHAT ARE OPTION TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
Options traders who to re-established 50% of their 110 and 120 call positions on the daily buy signal of 10.70 are advised to risk 50% of their purchased price.
Below are possible ‘trading modules’ for option traders to consider next week.
5) If March Sugar first posts a higher high than last week’s high of 10.90 and posts a monthly close above recent contract highs of 10.94, option traders are advised to either add to their existing March 120 call positions or purchase March 120 calls.
If ‘trading module’ #1 is activated, options traders are advised to risk 50% of their purchased price. (Traders and their account executives need to discuss this suggested risk).
6) If March Sugar posts a monthly close above 11.16, options traders are advised to either add to their existing 120 call positions or purchase 120 March calls.
If ‘trading module’ #2 is activated, options traders are advised to risk 50% of their purchased price. (Traders and their account executives need to discuss this suggested risk).
Our next objective will be the first unfilled price gap between 11.72 and 11.80. 
7) If March Sugar first posts a higher high than last week’s high of 10.90 and posts a higher high above recent contract highs of 10.94 - yet reverses, option traders are advised to view their long call positions with an air of caution.
If ‘trading module’ #5 were to occur, options traders are advised to watch the closing price of March Sugar on September 30th, which is the last trading day of the month. Traders will be advised of their new proposed risk in the October 2nd Joss Report.
8) If March Sugar were to post a close at or below 9.74 on the close of business September 30th, options traders will have activated their 50% risk management strategy of their established long call positions and are advised to sit on the sidelines. If this were to occur, traders should wait for another trading opportunity.
Each week I will continue to post Sugar’s past unfilled price gaps above the current market price so we can reference them quickly if the need presents itself. Please view past upside gaps here.
For many weeks I’ve described some Sugar option facts and will continue to provide updated information:
Last week Sugar options for a two-year ‘implied volatility’ average were ranked number 8 out of 45 - this week 18 out of 45 .
18) Sugar (SB) High 42.12% - Low 18.90% - 25.04%
Last week Sugar options for a one-year ‘implied volatility’ average were ranked number 2 out of 45 - this week 12 out of 45
12) Sugar (SB) High 33.54% - Low 18.90% - Current 25.04%
Last week Sugar options for a six-month ‘implied volatility’ average were ranked number 2 out of 45 - this week 12 out of 45 .
12) Sugar (SB) High 27.18% - Low 18.90% - 25.04%
DAILY CHART MARCH SUGAR:
http://bohl.minot.com/d_Chart.cgi?SB06H
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WEEKLY CHART:
http://bohl.minot.com/w_Chart.cgi?SB
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NOVEMBER CRUDE OIL (CL5X)
For two weeks I’ve been watching a possible bearish ‘head and shoulders’ top develop.
A ‘head and shoulders’ top?
Yes…. that’s what I am watching.
In addition, November Crude Oil may be developing a potential monthly recommendation for October.
The left shoulder of the formation was established from highs of 68.20 (8/16/05) to lows of 63.55.
The head was developed between lows of 66.70 (8/26/05) and highs of 70.80 (8/30/05).
The right shoulder is developing between 68.10 (9/21/05) highs and current lows of 63.85 (9/23/05).
The all-important neckline - if touched today - would be at 62.95.
November Crude has been in a multi-year price advance, which began from lows of 23.64 (5/28/03) to recent highs of 70.80 (8/30/05).
Crude began its current price advance from lows of 58.00 (7/21/05) to recent highs of 70.80.
Currently, Crude has been in a trading range between 63.25 lows and 70.80 highs.
November Crude has one unfilled price gap above the current market price on a 60-minute chart between 69.10 and 69.60 - and no price gaps above the current market price on the daily chart.
November Crude has many unfilled price gaps below the current market price. The most recent unfilled price gap is between 62.40 and 62.63. The next unfilled price gap is between 61.70 and 61.80.
Crude has closed below its 40-day moving average and 50-day moving average - which as of Friday was at 65.93 and 64.75, respectively.
November Crude closed Friday at 64.29, which is above its 100-day moving average of 60.78 and its 200-day moving average of 55.12.
Until Crude posts a close below 62.95 or above 70.80, aggressive traders are advised to sit on the sidelines and see if a potential monthly recommendation develops for October.
WHAT ARE FUTURES TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
This product is not for the inexperienced trader or the faint of heart.
Traders are not to exceed the rule of thumb - 9% of equity to risk ratio. The proposed risk for the Crude contract will be $5,150 - and $2,575 for the mini contract.
That means traders should have an account size of $50,000 for the big Crude contract and $25,000 for the mini contract.
Below are possible ‘trading modules’ for futures traders to consider next week.
1) If Crude Oil first posts a lower low than last week’s low of 63.85, aggressive futures traders are advised to prepare for an assault on the ‘head and shoulders’ neckline at 62.95.
2) If Crude Oil posts a close below 62.95, aggressive traders are advised to establish a short position.
Conservative Crude futures traders are advised to use the electronic November Mini-Crude Oil contract as their trading vehicle.
If ‘trading module’ #2 is activated, traders are advised to place stops above the shoulder line at 68.10. (Traders and their account executives need to discuss this suggested stop).
Our first objective will be the unfilled price gap between 62.40 and 62.63.  
3) If November Crude posts a close below 62.63, aggressive futures traders are advised to either add to their existing short positions or establish a short position.
Conservative Crude futures traders are advised to use the electronic November Mini-Crude Oil contract as their trading vehicle.
If this were to occur, traders who either added to their existing short position or established a short position at 62.63 are advised to place stops for this position only above 63.85. (Traders and their account executives need to discuss this suggested stop).
Our second objective will be the unfilled price gap between 61.70 and 61.80.  
Our intermediate objective will be 55.70.
4) If November Crude Oil first posts a higher high than last week’s high of 68.10, aggressive futures traders are advised to sit on the sidelines and wait for a trading opportunity.
If ‘trading module’ #1 were to occur, aggressive futures traders are advised to watch the closing price of November Crude Oil on September 30th, which is the last trading day of the month. Futures traders will be advised if a monthly recommendation for October develops in the October 2nd Joss Report.
5) If November Crude Oil were to first post a higher high than last week’s high of 68.10 yet reverses,  aggressive futures traders are advised to place resting sell stop orders at 63.84.
DAILY CHART:
http://bohl.minot.com/d_Chart.cgi?CL05X
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WEEKLY CHART:
http://bohl.minot.com/w_Chart.cgi?CL
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NOVEMBER SOYBEANS (S5X)
In the July 31st Joss Report I began developing a ‘trading module’ for November Soybeans.
I noted at the inception of this trade that Soybeans were an extremely volatile product and should only be traded by aggressive traders. This was not for the inexperienced trader or the faint of heart.
Clients were cautioned that they should have an equity to risk ratio of no more than 9% to trade this product.
If you do not fit this profile, I suggested that traders consult their account executive and consider an options strategy.
Does this mean traders shouldn’t establish a short position or add to their short positions?
As I suggested in last week’s Joss Report…. no, because the equity to risk ratio of establishing a new short position at this juncture is not in traders’ best interest for the following reasons:
1) Volatility is low. The six-month volatility is at 3.91%- indicating a possible bottom may be near.
2) A seasonal trend reversal may be approaching.
Soybean’s 40-day moving average and 50-day moving average is at 618.50 and 633.75, respectively.
Soybean’s 100-day moving average and 200-day moving average is at 657.25 and 619.50, respectively.
Soybeans have two unfilled price gaps below the current market price - the most recent between 547.00 and 551.50.
Soybeans have two unfilled price gaps above the current market price - the most recent is between 587.00 and 589.00.
On 8/05/05, Beans posted a weekly sell signal at 669.75.
On 8/05/05, Beans posted a monthly sell signal at 665.75.
On 8/09/05, Soybeans confirmed a breakout on the downside by closing below 660.50.
On 8/12/05, Beans posted an ‘intra-day’ sell signal at 649.00.
On 8/19/05, Beans posted a daily sell signal at 619.25.
On 9/08/05, Beans posted a daily sell signal at 601.25.
On 9/09/05, Beans posted an intra-daily sell signal at 599.25.
On 9/23/05, Beans posted a daily sell signal at 577.25.
 
WHAT WERE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO LAST WEEK?
Aggressive traders who established a short position at the weekly sell signal of 669.75 were advised to move their stops above 595.50.
Aggressive traders who either added to their existing short position or established a short position at the monthly sell signal of 665.75 were advised to move their stops above 595.50.
Aggressive traders who either added to their existing short position or established a short position at the second posting of the monthly sell signal of 665.75 were advised to move their stops above 595.50.
Conservative traders who purchased November 620 puts were advised to risk 20% of current market value.
Aggressive traders who either added to their existing short position or established a short position at 595.25 were advised to move their stops above 581.00.
Conservative traders who purchased November 620 puts were advised to risk 15% of current market value.
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Aggressive traders who either added to their existing short position or established a short position at 595.25 were stopped out above 581.00.
Conservative traders who purchased November 620 puts were advised to risk 15% of current market value. Options traders who implemented the 15% rule of thumb strategy have exited their options positions.
WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
November Soybeans have a weekly recommendation for next week: buy when trades 586.25 - sell when trades 569.00.
Below are possible ‘trading modules’ for futures traders to consider next week:
Aggressive traders who established a short position at the weekly sell signal of 669.75 are advised to move their stops to 586.25.
Aggressive traders who either added to their existing short position or established a short position at the monthly sell signal of 665.75 are advised to move their stops to 586.25.
Aggressive traders who either added to their existing short position or established a short position at the second posting of the monthly sell signal of 665.75 are advised to move their stops to 586.25.
1) If November Soybeans first post a lower low than last week’s low of 569.25, traders are advised to not add to their existing short position.
If ‘trading module’ #1 is enacted, aggressive traders are advised to either liquidate 25% of their short positions or leave their stops at 586.25.
2) If Soybeans post a close below 564.00, traders are advised to not add to their existing short position.
If ‘trading module’ #2 is enacted, aggressive traders are advised to liquidate another 25% of their short positions and move their stops above 575.00.
Our objective will be the unfilled price gap between 547.00 and 551.50.
3) If Soybeans fill the price gap between 547.00 and 551.00, traders are advised to not add to their existing short position.
If ‘trading module’ #3 is enacted, aggressive traders are advised to liquidate another 25% of their short positions or move all their stops above 669.75.
4) If Soybeans first post a lower low than last week’s low of 569.25 yet reverses, traders are advised to prepare for a possible ‘intra-weekly’ buy signal at 586.25.
If ‘trading module’ #4 is enacted, traders must adjust their stops if they liquidated 25% of their short positions and leave the balance of their stops at 586.25.
5) If Soybeans first post a weekly buy signal at 586.25, traders are not advised to establish a long position. 
If ‘trading module’ #5 is enacted, aggressive Soybean traders will be stopped out of their existing short positions and will be flat. Traders should sit on the sidelines and wait for another trading opportunity.
 
DAILY CHART:
http://www.bohl.minot.com/d_Chart.cgi?S05X
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WEEKLY CHART:
http://www.bohl.minot.com/w_Chart.cgi?S
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DECEMBER SILVER (SI5Z)
Nine-weeks ago I began developing a ‘trading module’ for September Silver, which was put on the back burner until a weekly or monthly signal was posted.
Last week I began writing a ‘trading module’ for December Silver because of an ‘intra-weekly’ buy signal that was posted at 7.175 on 9/08/05 and a bullish ‘head and shoulders‘ bottom formation.
December Silver has been in a yearly trade range between 6.490 lows and 7.810 highs.
Silver’s 40-day moving average and 50-day moving average is at 7.135 and 7.140, respectively.
Silver’s 100-day moving average and 200-day moving average is at 7.195 and 7.180, respectively.
Note: This product is extremely volatile and should only be traded by aggressive traders. This is not for the inexperienced trader or the faint of heart.
Clients are being cautioned that they should have an equity to risk ratio of no more than 9% to trade this product.
At the inception of this trade, Silver’s ‘intra-week’ trading risk was at $1,325. That meant traders should have an account size of $12,000 per contract to trade this product.
If you did not fit this profile, I suggested that traders consult their account executive and consider an options strategy.
Silver has several unfilled price gaps above the current market price. The first unfilled price gap is between 7.810 and 8.000.
Silver has several unfilled price gaps below the current market price. The first unfilled price gap is between 6.865 and 6.890.
On 9/15/05, December Silver posted an ’intra-daily buy signal at 7.075.
On 9/16/05, December Silver posted a close above the all-important neckline.
On 9/16/05, December Silver posted an ‘intra-weekly’ buy signal at 7.175.
WHAT DOES THE SILVER CHART LOOK LIKE?
December Silver has a bullish ‘head and shoulders’ bottom formation.
The left shoulder was developed between highs of 7.400 (8/03/05) and lows of 7.000 (8/15/05).
The head was established between highs of 7.180 (8/22/05) and lows of 6.705 (8/30/05).
The right shoulder developed between highs of 7.170 (9/08/05) and lows of 6.910 (9/13/05).
The shoulder line support was at 6.910.
The neckline breakout occurred at 7.130 on 9/16/05.
In addition, the long-term weekly and monthly Silver chart has developed a pennant formation.
The pennant is based on a multi-year trading range between lows of 5.510 (5/14/04) and highs of 8.310 (4/02/04). 
The major upside breakout - if touched today - would occur at 8.070.
WHAT WERE FUTURES TRADERS ADVISED TO DO LAST WEEK?
Aggressive traders who established a long position at the ‘intra-day’ buy signal of 7.075 were advised to move stops below 7.010.
Aggressive traders who either added to their existing long position or established a long position at the ‘intra-weekly’ buy signal of 7.175 were advised to move stops below 7.010.
Last week’s trading module #2: If Silver first posted a higher high than last week’s high of 7.320; aggressive traders were advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing stops for this position only below 7.175. (Traders and their account executives needed to discuss this suggested stop).
Last week’s trading module #3: If Silver posted a higher high than last month’s high of 7.400; aggressive traders were advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing stops for all positions below 7.175. (Traders and their account executives needed to discuss this suggested stop).
Our objective was 7.770.
WHAT WERE OPTIONS TRADERS ADVISED TO DO LAST WEEK?
Conservative traders who purchased either December 7.10 or 7.20 calls on 9/16/05 were advised to continue risking 50% of purchase price.
Last week’s trading module #2: If Silver first posted a higher high than last week’s high of 7.320, conservative traders were advised to purchase either December 7.20 or 7.30 calls, risking 50% of purchase price.
Last week’s trading module #3: If Silver posted a higher high than last month’s high of 7.400; conservative traders were advised to purchase either December 7.30 or 7.50 calls, risking 50% of purchase price.
WHAT ARE FUTURES TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
Aggressive traders who established a long position at the ‘intra-day’ buy signal of 7.075 are advised to move stops below 7.130. (Traders and their account executives need to discuss this suggested stop).
Aggressive traders who either added to their existing long position or established a long position at the ‘intra-weekly’ buy signal of 7.175 are advised to move stops below 7.175. (Traders and their account executives need to discuss this suggested stop).
Aggressive traders who either added to their existing long position or established a long position on a higher high than 7.320 are advised to move stops below 7.175. (Traders and their account executives need to discuss this suggested stop).
Aggressive traders who either added to their existing long position or established a long position at a higher high than last month’s high of 7.400 are advised to move stops below 7.175. (Traders and their account executives need to discuss this suggested stop).
Below are possible ‘trading modules’ for futures traders to consider next week:
1) If December Silver first posts a higher high than last week’s high of 7.500, aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position.
If ‘trading module’ #1 is enacted, traders are advised to move all stops to 7.275.
2) If Silver posts a close above 7.610, aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position.
If ‘trading module’ #2 is enacted, traders are advised to move all stops below 7.500.
Our objective is 7.770.
3) If December Silver first posts a higher high than last week’s high of 7.500 yet reverses - trading below 7.320, traders are to prepare for a price failure.
If ‘trading module’ #3 is enacted, traders are to place resting stops for all positions below 7.280.
4) If Silver first posts a lower low than last week’s low of 7.280 yet does not reverse, traders are to prepare for a test of the 7.200 support level.
If this were to occur, traders are advised to either add to their existing long positions or establish a long position, placing stops below 7.175. 
WHAT ARE OPTION TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
Conservative traders who purchased either December 7.10 or 7.20 calls on 9/16/05 are advised to continue risking 50% of current market price.
Conservative traders who purchased either December 7.10 or 7.20 calls when Silver posted a higher high than 7.320 are advised to continue risking 50% of current market price.
Conservative traders who purchased either December 7.30 or 7.50 calls when Silver posted a higher high last month’s high of 7.400 are advised to continue risking 50% of current market price.
DAILY CHART:
http://www.bohl.minot.com/d_Chart.cgi?SV05Z
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WEEKLY CHART:
http://www.bohl.minot.com/w_Chart.cgi?SV
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DECEMBER COCOA (CC5Z)
Last week, I explained that December Cocoa is in danger of not only posting an ‘intra-month’ sell signal but an ‘intra-year’ sell signal.
If Cocoa posts a close at or below 1370 by the close of trading September 30th, this would constitute an ‘intra-monthly’ sell signal and a trend change.
Furthermore, I explained that if Cocoa posted its ‘intra-month’ sell signal at 1370, this might send Cocoa into a tailspin. Any additional selling pressure would have the potential to send Cocoa to its ‘intra-yearly’ sell signal at 1297, which were last year’s low.
If Cocoa posts a close below 1296, traders may see a dramatic collapse.
Our objective would be 858.
Cocoa has several unfilled price gaps above the current market price. The first unfilled price gap is between 1417 and 1419.
Cocoa has no unfilled price gaps below the current market price. 
WHAT DOES THE COCOA CHART LOOK LIKE?
December Cocoa has a bearish ‘island’ reversal top that formed between 9/02/05 and 9/09/05.
Traders should have an equity to risk ratio of no more than 9% to trade this product.
That means the risk trading the ‘intra-monthly’ sell signal (from 1575 to 1370) in Cocoa is $2,050; you should have an account size of $19,000 per contract to trade this product.
If you do not fit this profile, traders may have to sit this one out. Options are very thinly traded in Cocoa and might not be suitable to trade. (Traders and their account executives need to discuss this in detail).
On 9/09/05, Cocoa posted an ‘intra-daily’ sell signal at 1542.
On 9/21/05, Cocoa posted an ‘intra-day’ sell signal at 1366.
Cocoa’s 40-day moving average and 50-day moving average is at 1436 and 1441, respectively.
Cocoa’s 100-day moving average and 200-day moving average is at 1470 and 1546, respectively.
WHAT WERE FUTURES TRADERS ADVISED TO DO LAST WEEK?
Aggressive traders who established a short position at the ‘intra-day’ sell signal of 1542 were advised to move stops above 1481.
If Cocoa posted a close at or below 1370 by the close of business September 30th, aggressive traders were advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing all stops above 1450.
If Cocoa posted a close below 1298, traders were advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing all stops above 1413.
WHAT ARE FUTURES TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK?
Aggressive traders who established a short position at the ‘intra-day’ sell signal of 1542 are advised to move stops above 1395.
For Monday, December Cocoa has a daily recommendation: buy when trades 1360 - sell when trades 1337.
If Cocoa posts a close at or below 1370 by the close of business September 30th, aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing all stops above 1450.
If Cocoa posts a close below 1298, traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing all stops above 1413.
Below are possible ‘trading modules’ for futures traders to consider next week.
1) If December Cocoa first posts a daily buy signal at 1360, traders are not advised to establish a long position.
If ‘trading module’ #1 is enacted, traders are advised to enter a resting sell stop order at 1337 to either add to their existing short position or to establish a short position. If this were to occur, traders are advised to place stops above 1395.
2) If Cocoa first posts a daily buy signal at 1360 yet does not reverse, traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position against the monthly resistance of 1370.
If ‘trading module’ #2 is enacted, traders are advised to place stops above 1395.
3) If Cocoa first posts a daily sell signal at 1337, traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position.
If ‘trading module’ #3 is enacted, traders are advised to place stops above 1395.
4) If Cocoa posts a weekly and monthly close below 1370, traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position.
If ‘trading module’ #1, #2, #3, #4 is enacted, traders are advised to place stops above 1395.
Our first objective will be an assault of the yearly sell signal of 1298.
5) If Cocoa posts a weekly close below 1298, traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position.
If ‘trading module’ #1, #2, #3, #4, #5 are enacted, traders are advised to move all stops above 1370.
Our long-term objective will be 858.
DAILY CHART:
http://www.bohl.minot.com/d_Chart.cgi?CC05Z
------------
WEEKLY CHART:
http://www.bohl.minot.com/w_Chart.cgi?CC

 CHART WATCH by Scott R. Joss (Non member C.T.A)*

Readers and clients call during the week and ask: What are you watching?

Watching can mean that the markets are developing a 'recommendation' or a chart pattern that has not yet fully developed - or may never develop.

During the course of the week or month it is not uncommon to find an `intra-day, intra-week or intra-month' recommendation that was previously not revealed when this newsletter was written.

Products that currently fit into this 'watch' category are listed below and should be 'watched.'

CASH U.S. DOLLAR (DXY$Y)
In the August 28th Joss Report, I added the U.S. Dollar and Cash U.S. Dollar to ‘Chart Watch’.
The U.S. Dollar will remain on ‘Chart Watch’ because of a possible bullish ‘head and shoulders’ bottom formation on the long-term weekly and monthly charts.
Furthermore, I wrote that traders should focus on the Cash Dollar chart because the rollovers that occur in the futures Dollar chart every three-months might confuse traders. The Cash Dollar is one continuous chart that makes it easier to identify with over a long period of time.
In addition, I stated that last week’s analysis of the U.S. Dollar would be unpopular because most traders believe the U.S. Dollar is in a multi-year decline and will likely continue to decline.
Some believe that the U.S. Dollar’s time has come and gone. I disagree. It’s currently my belief that the Dollar is the most important currency… now and in the future. If the chart formations change, I’ll have to re-access my position.
The markets were taken by surprise Friday morning when China's central bank announced that they would increase the Yuan's daily allowable range from 1.5% to 3.0% for the non-dollar currencies.
If the Cash U.S. Dollar can post a monthly close at or above 89.44, this would constitute a continuation pattern conducive with higher prices.
Conversely, the Euro-Currency (FX) and the Swiss Franc have already posted ’intra-monthly’ sell signals.
Next week if the ’intra-monthly’ sell signals remain intact; I will begin writing ‘trading modules’ for the Euro-Currency.
WHAT DOES THE U.S. DOLLAR CHART LOOK LIKE?
The U.S. Dollar futures and the cash U.S. Dollar may be forming a ‘head and shoulders’ bottom on the daily, weekly and monthly charts.
THE DAILY CHART:
The Cash U.S. Dollar daily chart shows the ‘left’ shoulder was developed between 92.25 highs (5/13/04) to lows of 87.00 (7/19/04).
The daily chart shows the ‘head’ with a ‘W’ formation was established between 80.42 lows and 86.93 highs, with the middle of the ‘W’ at 85.44.
The daily chart shows the current development of the ‘right’ shoulder between highs of 90.77 and lows of 86.02.
THE WEEKLY CHART:
The weekly chart gives support to the daily cash chart.
The weekly chart shows the ‘left’ shoulder developed between 87.02 lows and 92.29 highs.
The ‘head’ with a ‘W’ formation was established between 80.39 lows and 86.93 highs.
The ‘right’ shoulder is developing between 90.77 highs and 86.02 lows.
The all-important ‘neckline’ breakout is at 90.48 if touched today.
THE MONTHLY CHART:
The monthly cash Dollar chart supports the daily and weekly charts.
The monthly chart shows the ‘left’ shoulder developed between 87.02 lows and 92.29 highs.
The ‘head’ with a ‘W’ formation was established between 80.39 lows and 87.82 highs.
The ‘right’ shoulder is developing between 90.77 highs and 86.02 lows.
The all-important ‘neckline’ breakout is at 90.66 if touched today.
WHAT DOES ALL OF THIS MEAN?
It appears that the U.S. Dollar may be forming a long-term bottom, which may take between two to four- months to develop.
Once the formation is complete, our objective will be 102.16.
I will keep traders informed next week.
DAILY CHART:
http://www.bohl.minot.com/d_Chart.cgi?DX05Z
------------
WEEKLY CHART:
http://bohl.minot.com/w_Chart.cgi?DX
----------------------------------------------------
DECEMBER WHEAT (W5Z)
This week I will add December Wheat to ‘Chart Watch’ because of a potential monthly recommendation for October.
Next week I will began writing a ‘trading module’ for December Wheat if a monthly recommendation does reveal itself on the close of business September 30th.
December Wheat had been in a six-week price decline from highs of 368.50 (7/18/05) to lows of 316.50 (8/31/05).
Currently, Wheat has been in a three-week price advance that began from lows of 316.50 to highs of 335.50
Wheat’s 40-day moving average and 50-day moving average is at 330.25 and 334.25, respectively.
Wheat’s 100-day moving average and 200-day moving average is at 339.25 and 339.50, respectively.
Note: This product is extremely volatile and should only be traded by aggressive traders. This is not for the inexperienced trader or the faint of heart.
Clients are being cautioned that they should have an equity to risk ratio of no more than 9% to trade this product.
If the potential monthly recommendation were posted as of today, the monthly risk would be $1,675. That means traders should have an account size of $16,000 per contract to trade this product.
If you did not fit this profile, I suggest that traders consult their account executive and consider an options strategy.
DAILY CHART:
http://www.bohl.minot.com/d_Chart.cgi?W05Z
------------
WEEKLY CHART:
http://www.bohl.minot.com/w_Chart.cgi?W
----------------------------------------------------
DECEMBER COTTON (CT5Z)
December Cotton will remain on ‘Chart Watch’ because of a possible monthly recommendation developing for October, which will not be revealed until the close of business September 30th.
Cotton has been in an eight-week price decline that began from highs of 57.20 (7/05/05) to recent lows of 47.76 (8/19/05).
Currently, Cotton may be developing a bullish ‘head and shoulders’ bottom formation.
The left shoulder developed between lows of 49.36 (7/20/05) and highs of 53.30 (8/02/05).
The head was established between lows of 47.76 (8/19/05) and highs of 50.85 (8/11/05).
The right shoulder has been developing between highs of 52.90 (9/07/05) and recent lows of 49.38 (9/15/05).
The shoulder line support is at 49.38.
The all-important neckline - if touched today - would be at 52.75.
Our first upside objective - if Cotton can maintain a foothold above 49.38 - would be 58.14.
Cotton has several price gaps above the current market price. The most recent unfilled price gap is between 53.30 and 54.45.
Cotton has several price gaps below the current market price. The most recent unfilled price gap is between 50.10 and 50.11.
On 8/24/05, Cotton posted an ‘intra-day’ sell signal at 48.64.
On 8/29/05, Cotton posted a daily buy signal at 48.51.
On 9/09/05, Cotton posted a daily sell signal at 51.64.
On 9/15/05, Cotton posted a daily sell signal at 49.55.
On 9/21/05, Cotton posted a daily buy signal at 51.66.
Cotton’s 40-day moving average and 50-day moving average is at 50.37and 50.52, respectively.
Cotton’s 100-day moving average and 200-day moving average is at 51.96 and 52.45, respectively.
WHAT WERE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO LAST WEEK?
1) Traders were advised to sit on the sidelines and wait for a possible monthly recommendation for October, which will not be revealed until the close of business September 30th. If this were to occur, traders will receive the monthly recommendations the evening of September 30th - via email.
DAILY CHART:
http://www.bohl.minot.com/d_Chart.cgi?CT05Z
------------
WEEKLY CHART:
http://www.bohl.minot.com/w_Chart.cgi?CT

CURRENT 'MONTHLY' RECOMMENDATIONS
FOR SEPTEMBER:

- DOW JONES

FUTURE WATCH

Future watch will list developing 'monthly' recommendations to watch in September for October. By listing these products, traders can `feed-forward' with anticipation and focus - centering on products that will provide direction and hopefully, opportunity.
Traders should begin studying the 'daily', 'weekly' and 'monthly' charts for the products listed below. Don't forget between now and the end of the month, some or all of these products may be de-listed.
'Monthly' recommendations will be revealed on the close of business September 30th and sent via email for October.

- WHEAT
- S&P 500
- EMINI S&P
- MINI NASDAQ
- CRUDE OIL
- COTTON
- ORANGE JUICE

COPYRIGHT WARNING AND NOTICE: It
is a violation of federal copyright law to
reproduce all or any part of this publication or
its contents by email, facsimile, xerography,
scanning or any other means, without
permission.
Copyright 2005, Joss Report - S.R. Joss Inc and ClearTrade Inc. All rights reserved.
If you are receiving this report from any other source than S.R. Joss Inc or ClearTrade Inc. please contact us at 1-800- 493-4444.

NOTE:

If you do not completely understand this information, you are advised to take NO action until speaking with your Account Executive.

ClearTrade, Inc. may be reached at 800-493-4444

====================================

* The Joss Report trade recommendations and weekly trade advisor is prepared by Scott Joss, Non- Member C.T.A.

Scott Joss is a 'non member' CTA and is providing the Joss Report weekly trading advisor and trade recommendations to ClearTrade, Inc. clients. Scott Joss 'is a principal' of ClearTrade, Inc. and 'is a registered IB member' with the NFA.

====================================

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* COMING EVENTS AND DATA RELEASES:

Calendar provided by Briefing.com, Inc. Data is provided for informational purposes only, and is not intended for trading purposes. Neither ClearTrade, Inc. nor any of its data or content providers (such as Reuters, CSI, and Briefing.com) shall be liable for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.

Market recommendations are strictly the opinion of the writer and are intended solely for informative purposes and are not to be construed, under any circumstances, by implication or otherwise, as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or trade in any commodities or securities herein named. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading involve substantial risk. In no event should the content of a market letter be construed as a promise that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever.

Unless otherwise indicated, the links presented in this publication/newsletter are in no way affiliated with ClearTrade, Inc. Likewise, sites linked through ClearTrade's Joss Report weekly trade advisor newsletter are not necessarily connected with ClearTrade, nor do any such links imply an endorsement by either party.

ClearTrade, Inc. does not necessarily promote or endorse the services or publications described herein. Unless otherwise indicated, ClearTrade Inc. has had no role in the production or review of these products or services and makes no warranty, either expressed or implied, as to their contents, accuracy or performance.

Past results are no indication of future performance. Information provided in this newsletter is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted.

REPRODUCTION OR REBROADCAST OF ANY PORTION OF THIS INFORMATION IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED WITHOUT THE WRITTEN PERMISSION OF S.R. JOSS INC./CLEARTRADE, INC.

The contents of this newsletter are copyright 1997-2005, Scott R. Joss/S.R. Joss Inc./ClearTrade, Inc. *TM. All Rights Reserved.

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