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TECH TALK BY Scott R. Joss (Non member C.T.A)* In the 4/9/06 Joss report, traders were advised to buy the December Soybean Oil and sell the July Soybean Oil. At the time of the report, the price differential between December and July Soybean Oil was+91. At the present time, the price differential between December and July Soybean Oil on Friday’s settlement is +101. WHAT ARE SPREAD TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK? Traders are advised to risk the spread to a differential of +90 (actual pit spread price).* Spread traders should note that there are only 5-days left in the July Soybean Oil contract before last trading day (7/14/06). Traders are required to exit the trade before the last trading day on July 14th. Our long-term spread price differential - based on the actual pit spread price this week - will be +121. *** (Traders can exit or hedge a trade position once it moves in their direction but are advised to remove all resting stop orders).
In the 6/11/06 Joss Report I began discussing October Sugar. On 5/16/06, October Sugar posted a weekly sell signal at 17.38. On 6/12/06, October Sugar posted a weekly sell signal at 15.21. However, traders were not advised to establish a new short position until October Sugar posted four consecutive closes below 15.21. On 7/3/06, October Sugar posted a weekly buy signal at 16.44. The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for futures last week decreased by -5,431, posting a total open interest of 427,937 contracts. This product is for aggressive traders only. Traders are not to exceed the rule of thumb - 10% of equity to risk ratio. The weekly trade risk was $672. Below are possible ‘trading modules’ for futures traders to consider next week: # 1) Aggressive traders who established a long position at 16.44 are advised to either move all stops below 16.41 and refer to trading module # 4 or exit their long positions. Option traders who purchased the October 1800 calls are advised to either risk 30% of the current market price or exit their call positions. # 2) If October Sugar posts multiple closes (4 business days) above 17.25: Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing all stops at 16.41*. Option traders are advised to purchase October 1800 calls, risking 50% of purchase price. # 3) If October Sugar posts multiple closes above 17.46: Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing all stops below 16.84*. Option traders are advised to purchase October 1800 calls, risking 50% of purchase price. Our objective will be 17.85. # 4) If October Sugar posts multiple closes (4 business days) below 16.41: Aggressive traders are advised to establish a short position, placing all stops at 17.26* and refer to trading module # 1. Option traders are advised to purchase October 1650 puts, risking 50% of purchase price**. # 5) If October Sugar posts multiple closes (4 business days) below 16.02: Aggressive traders are advised to add to their existing short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops above 16.45.* Option traders are advised to purchase October 1650 puts, risking 50% of purchase price**. # 6) If October Sugar posts multiple closes below 15.83: Aggressive traders are advised to add to their existing short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops above 16.41.* Option traders are advised to purchase October 1600 puts, risking 50% of purchase price**. Our objective will be 15.60. DAILY CHART: ----------------- * (Futures traders and their account executives are advised to discuss this suggested stop). ** (Option traders and their account executives are advised to discuss the suggested risk). *** (Traders can exit or hedge a trade position once it moves in their direction but are advised to remove all resting stop orders).
This week I’m adding the September NASDAQ to ‘Tech Talk’ because of a pending weekly trade recommendation for next week and a possible monthly recommendation developing for August. On 7/5/06, the NASDAQ posted a daily sell signal at 1592.50. The September NADAQ is developing a potential monthly recommendation for August which will not be revealed until the close of business July 31st. The NASDAQ has an unfilled price gap above the current market price between 1588.00 and 1593.00. Aggressive traders looking to minimize risk are advised to use the Mini NASDAQ as their trading vehicle. The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for NASDAQ futures last week decreased by -644, posting a total open interest of 62,943 contracts. The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for Mini NASDAQ futures last week decreased by -27,234, posting a total open interest of 325,610 contracts. This product is for very aggressive traders. Very aggressive traders are not to exceed the rule of thumb - 10% of equity to risk ratio. The NASDAQ weekly trade risk is $8,350. The Mini NASDAQ weekly trade risk is $1,670. If you do not fit this risk profile, traders are advised to sit on the sidelines. For next week the September NASDAQ has a weekly recommendation: buy when trades 1611.50 – sell when trades 1528.00. Below are possible ‘trading modules’ for futures traders to consider next week: Very Aggressive traders are advised to establish a short position, placing all stops at 1604.00* and refer to trading module # 4. # 2) If the September NASDAQ posts multiple closes (4 business days) below 1513.00: Very Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing all stops above 1542.50*. # 3) If the September NASDAQ posts multiple closes below 1491.00: Very Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing all stops above 1513.50*. Our objective will be 1452.00. # 4) If the September NASDAQ posts a close at or above 1611.50: Very Aggressive traders are advised to establish a long position, placing all stops at 1542.00* and refer to trading module # 1. # 5) If the September NASDAQ posts multiple closes (4 business days) above 1629.50: Very Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing all stops below 1603.50*. # 6) If the September NASDAQ posts multiple closes above 1646.50: Very Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing all stops below 1611.50*. # 7) If the September NASDAQ posts multiple closes above 1654.50: Very Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing all stops below 1632.00*. Our objective will be 1679.00. # 8) If the September NASDAQ does not post 1646.50 or 1529.50 by the close of business July 31st: Aggressive traders are advised to sit on the sidelines and wait for a potential monthly recommendation for August. DAILY CHART: ----------------- * (Futures traders and their account executives are advised to discuss this suggested stop). ** (Option traders and their account executives are advised to discuss the suggested risk). *** (Traders can exit or hedge a trade position once it moves in their direction but are advised to remove all resting stop orders).
In the May 21st Joss Report I wrote about Gold and what I thought might occur in the upcoming weeks. http://www.cleartrade.com/images/letter_May_21__2006.htm#GOLD Two weeks ago I began discussing August Gold because of a weekly recommendation. On 6/27/06, August Gold posted a weekly buy signal at 593.60. August Gold is developing a potential monthly recommendation for August which will not be revealed until the close of business July 31st. This product was and still is for very aggressive traders only and not for the faint of heart. Traders were not to exceed the rule of thumb - 10% of equity to risk ratio. The proposed weekly risk for August Gold was $2,590. If you did not fit this risk profile, traders were advised to consult with their account executive for an option trading strategy. The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for futures last week decreased by -289, posting a total open interest of 292,500 contracts. August Gold has one unfilled price gap above the current market price between 639.50 and 644.30. August Gold has three unfilled price gaps below the current market price. The first unfilled price gap is between 562.00 and 566.30. The second unfilled price gap is between 552.50 and 553.80. The third unfilled price gap is between 618.00 and 619.50. Below are possible ‘trading modules’ for futures traders to consider next week: # 1) Very aggressive traders who established a long position at 593.60 are advised to either move their stops below 616.00 or exit their positions. Aggressive Option traders who purchased August 610 calls are advised to either risk 30% of current market price or exit their trade. Our first objective of 616.40 was met on 6/30/06. # 2) Very aggressive traders who established a long position on a close above 616.40 are advised to either move their stops below 616.00 or exit their positions. Aggressive Option traders who purchased August 620 calls are advised to either risk 30% of current market price or exit their trade. # 3) If August Gold posts multiple closes at or above 650.10: Very aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing all stops below 639.50*. Our objective will be 687.00. Aggressive traders are advised to sit on the sidelines and wait for a potential monthly recommendation for August. ----------------- * (Futures traders and their account executives are advised to discuss this suggested stop). ** (Option traders and their account executives are advised to discuss the suggested risk). *** (Traders can exit or hedge a trade position once it moves in their direction but are advised to remove all resting stop orders).
In the Joss Report dated June 25th, I added the September S&P 500 to ‘Tech Talk’ because of a weekly recommendation. On 6/29/06, the S&P 500 posted an ‘intra-week’ buy signal at 1268.40. The September S&P 500 has an unfilled price gap above the current market price gap between 1290.00 and 1292.00. The September S&P 500 has two unfilled price gaps below the current market price. The first unfilled price gap is between 1258.00 and 1261.50. The second unfilled price gap is between 1241.50 and 1244.80. This product was and still is for very aggressive traders only and not for the faint of heart. Aggressive traders looking to minimize risk were advised to use the S&P EMINI as their trading vehicle. Traders were not to exceed the rule of thumb - 10% of equity to risk ratio. The weekly proposed trade risk for September S&P 500 was $5,300. The weekly proposed trade risk for September S&P EMINI was $1,087.50. If you did not fit either risk profiles, traders were and continue to be advised to sit on the sidelines and wait for a possible monthly recommendation for August. The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report for the S&P 500 - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for futures last week decreased by -410, posting a total open interest of 623,220 contracts. The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report for the S&P EMINI - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for futures last week increased by 33,584, posting a total open interest of 1,332,529 contracts. WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK? Below are possible ‘trading modules’ for futures traders to consider next week: # 1) Very aggressive traders who established a long position at 1268.40 are advised to either move their stops below 1258.00* or exit their positions. # 2) Very aggressive traders who established a long position on multiple closes above 1274.20 are advised to either move their stops below 1258.00* or exit their positions. Our objective of 1280.30 was met on 6/29/06. # 3) If the September S&P 500 posts multiple closes above 1289.50: Very aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing all resting stops below 1271.10*. Our objective will be 1296.20. # 4) If the September S&P 500 does not post 1303.10 or 1229.60 by the close of business July 31st: Aggressive traders are advised to sit on the sidelines and wait for a potential monthly recommendation for August. ----------------- * (Futures traders and their account executives are advised to discuss this suggested stop). ** (Option traders and their account executives are advised to discuss the suggested risk). *** (Traders can exit or hedge a trade position once it moves in their direction but are advised to remove all resting stop orders).
In the Joss Report dated June 25th, I added the September Cocoa to ‘Chart Watch’ because of a weekly recommendation. On 6/26/06, September Cocoa posted a weekly buy signal at 1551 and away she went to highs of 1733 (7/7/06). Traders were not to exceed the rule of thumb - 10% of equity to risk ratio. The proposed weekly risk for September Cocoa was $270. If you did not fit this risk profile, traders were advised to consult with their account executive for an option trading strategy. The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for futures last week increased by 2,872, posting a total open interest of 133,951 contracts. WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK? # 1) Aggressive traders who established a long position at 1551 are advised to move stops below 1642* or exit their trade. # 2) Aggressive traders who established a long position at 1650 are advised to move stops below 1642* or exit their trade. # 3) If September Cocoa posts multiple closes (4 business days) above 1732: Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing long positions or establish a long position, placing all stops at 1641*. Our objective is 1740. # 4) If September Cocoa posts multiple closes above 1795: Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing long positions or establish a long position, placing all stops at 1732*. # 5) If September Cocoa posts multiple closes above 1850: Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing long positions or establish a long position, placing all stops below 1766*. Our objective will be 2078. DAILY CHART: ----------------- * (Futures traders and their account executives are advised to discuss this suggested stop). ** (Option traders and their account executives are advised to discuss the suggested risk). *** (Traders can exit or hedge a trade position once it moves in their direction but are advised to remove all resting stop orders). CHART WATCH by Scott R. Joss (Non member C.T.A)* Readers and clients call during the week and ask: What are you watching? Watching can mean that the markets are developing a 'recommendation' or a chart pattern that has not yet fully developed - or may never develop. During the course of the week or month it is not uncommon to find an `intra-day, intra-week or intra-month' recommendation that was previously not revealed when this newsletter was written. Products that currently fit into this 'watch' category are listed below and should be 'watched.'
Two weeks ago, I added September Wheat to ‘Chart Watch’ because of a potential monthly recommendation developing for July. For July, September Wheat has a monthly recommendation which has not been posted as of Friday’s close. This product is for aggressive traders. Traders are not to exceed the rule of thumb - 10% of equity to risk ratio. The proposed monthly risk for September Wheat is $2,450. If you do not fit this risk profile, traders are advised to consult with their account executive for an option trading strategy. The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for futures last week decreased by -2,772, posting a total open interest of 458,965 contracts. WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK? # 1) Aggressive traders who want to trade September Wheat are advised to contact their ClearTrade account executive at 1-800-493-4444 for an updated ‘trading module’. DAILY CHART: ----------------- * (Futures traders and their account executives are advised to discuss this suggested stop). ** (Option traders and their account executives are advised to discuss the suggested risk). *** (Traders can exit or hedge a trade position once it moves in their direction but are advised to remove all resting stop orders).
This week I’m adding September Crude Oil to ‘Chart Watch’ because of an ‘intra-day’ sell signal from contract highs on 7/7/06. This product is for very aggressive traders only and not for the faint of heart. Aggressive traders looking to minimize risk were advised to use the Mini Crude Oil as their trading vehicle. Traders are not to exceed the rule of thumb - 10% of equity to risk ratio. The proposed ‘intra-day’ risk for September Crude Oil is $1,650. If you do not fit this risk profile, traders are advised to consult with their account executive for an option trading strategy. The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for futures last week increased by 22,023, posting a total open interest of 1,013,523 contracts. WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK? # 1) Aggressive traders who want to trade September Crude Oil are advised to contact their ClearTrade account executive at 1-800-493-4444 for an updated ‘trading module’ for next week. DAILY CHART: ----------------- * (Futures traders and their account executives are advised to discuss this suggested stop). ** (Option traders and their account executives are advised to discuss the suggested risk). *** (Traders can exit or hedge a trade position once it moves in their direction but are advised to remove all resting stop orders).
This week I’m adding September Lumber to ‘Chart Watch’ because of a weekly recommendation for next week and a potential monthly recommendation developing for August. This product is for very aggressive traders only and not for the faint of heart. Traders are not to exceed the rule of thumb - 10% of equity to risk ratio. The proposed weekly risk for September Lumber is $1,540. The proposed monthly risk will not be revealed until the close of business July 31st. If you do not fit this risk profile, traders are advised to consult with their account executive for an option trading strategy. The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for futures last week decreased by 240, posting a total open interest of 5,026 contracts. WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK? # 1) Aggressive traders who want to trade September Lumber are advised to contact their ClearTrade account executive at 1-800-493-4444 for an updated ‘trading module’ for next week and next month. DAILY CHART: ----------------- * (Futures traders and their account executives are advised to discuss this suggested stop). ** (Option traders and their account executives are advised to discuss the suggested risk). *** (Traders can exit or hedge a trade position once it moves in their direction but are advised to remove all resting stop orders).
SEPTEMBER FEEDER CATTLE (FCU6) This week I’m adding September Feeder Cattle to ‘Chart Watch’ because of a weekly recommendations for next week and potential monthly recommendations developing for August. This product is for aggressive traders only and not for the faint of heart. Traders are not to exceed the rule of thumb - 10% of equity to risk ratio. The proposed weekly risk for September Feeder Cattle is $1,400. The proposed monthly risk for September Feeder Cattle will not be revealed until the close of business July 31st. If you do not fit this risk profile, traders are advised to consult with their account executive for an option trading strategy. The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for futures last week increased by 2,093, posting a total open interest of 29,566 contracts. WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK? # 1) Aggressive traders who want to trade September Feeder Cattle are advised to contact their ClearTrade account executive at 1-800-493-4444 for an updated ‘trading module’ for next week and next month. DAILY CHART: ----------------- * (Futures traders and their account executives are advised to discuss this suggested stop). ** (Option traders and their account executives are advised to discuss the suggested risk). *** (Traders can exit or hedge a trade position once it moves in their direction but are advised to remove all resting stop orders). CURRENT 'MONTHLY' RECOMMENDATIONS FOR JULY: - SEPTEMBER WHEAT FUTURE WATCH Future watch will list developing 'monthly' recommendations to watch in July for August. By listing these products, traders can `feed-forward' with anticipation and focus - centering on products that will provide direction and hopefully, opportunity. Traders should begin studying the 'weekly' and 'monthly' charts for the products listed below. Don't forget between now and the end of the month, some or all of these products may be de-listed. 'Monthly' recommendations will be revealed on the close of business July 31st and sent via email for August.
- Potential monthly recommendations for August will be posted in future Weekly Trade Advisors. MONTHLY CALENDAR
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If you do not completely understand this information, you are advised totake NO action until speaking with your Account Executive. ClearTrade® Inc. may be reached at 800-493-4444 * If the market opens above the buy price shown then place a stop order to sell at the price to enter a short trade. ScottJoss is a 'non member' CTA and is providing the Joss Report trade recommendations and weekly trade advisor to ClearTrade® Inc. clients. Scott Joss 'is a principal' of ClearTrade® Inc. and 'is a registered IB member' with the NFA. NOTE: Past results are no indication of future performance. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of futureconditions are attempted. The contents of the Joss Report weekly trade advisor newsletter and trade recommendations are copyright© 1997 - 2006, Scott R. Joss / S.R. Joss Inc./ClearTrade® Inc. *TM. All Rights Reserved. Calendar provided by Briefing.com, Inc. Data is provided for informational purposes only, and is not intended for trading purposes. Neither ClearTrade, Inc. nor any of its data or content providers (such as Reuters, CSI, and Briefing.com) shall be liable for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. “The organizations and links presented in this newsletter/Joss Report are in no way affiliated with ClearTrade® Inc. or S.R. Joss Inc..ClearTrade® does not necessarily promote or endorse the services orpublications described herein. ClearTrade has no role in the production or review of these products or services and makes no warranty, either expressed or implied, as to their contents, accuracy or performance.” This publication is strictly the opinion of its writer and is intended solely for informative purposes and is not to be construed, under any circumstances, by implication or otherwise, as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or trade in any commodities or securities here in named. Information is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures and options trading involve risk. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. In no event should the content of this market letter be construed as an express or an implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from ClearTrade® that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner what so ever. |
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