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TECH TALK BY Scott R. Joss (Non member C.T.A)*
In the 6/11/06 Joss Report I began discussing October Sugar. On 5/16/06, October Sugar posted a weekly sell signal at 17.38. On 6/12/06, October Sugar posted a weekly sell signal at 15.21. However, traders were not advised to establish a new short position until October Sugar posted four consecutive closes below 15.21. On 7/3/06, October Sugar posted a weekly buy signal at 16.44. On 7/10/06, October Sugar posted a bearish ‘Island reversal’ top. On 7/14/06, October Sugar posted an ‘intra-day’ sell signal at 16.32 The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for futures last week increased by 27,768, posting a total open interest of 455,705 contracts. This product is for aggressive traders only. Traders are not to exceed the rule of thumb - 10% of equity to risk ratio. The ‘Island reversal’ top trade risk is $1,489.60. Below are possible ‘trading modules’ for futures traders to consider next week: # 1) Aggressive traders who established a long position at 16.44 have exited their long positions. Option traders who purchased the October 1800 calls have exited their call positions. # 2) Aggressive traders who established a short position at 16.32 are advised to place stops at 16.85: Option traders who purchased October 1650 puts are advised to risk 70% of purchase price. # 3) If October Sugar advances to 16.25: Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing all stops above 16.85*. Option traders are advised to purchase October 1650 puts, risking 70% of purchase price. # 4) If October Sugar posts a close below 15.83: Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing all stops above 16.78*. Option traders are advised to purchase October 1600 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**. # 5) If October Sugar posts multiple closes below 15.77: Aggressive traders are advised to add to their existing short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops above 16.45.* Option traders are advised to purchase October 1600 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**. Our first objective will be 15.60. # 6) If October Sugar posts multiple closes below 15.18: Aggressive traders are advised to add to their existing short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops above 15.92.* Option traders are advised to purchase October 1550 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**. # 7) If October Sugar posts multiple closes below 14.97: Aggressive traders are advised to add to their existing short positions or establish a short position, placing all stops above 15.77.* Option traders are advised to purchase October 1500 puts, risking 70% of purchase price**. Our objective will be 14.56. DAILY CHART: ----------------- * (Futures traders and their account executives are advised to discuss this suggested stop). ** (Option traders and their account executives are advised to discuss the suggested risk). *** (Traders can exit or hedge a trade position once it moves in their direction but are advised to remove all resting stop orders).
Last week I added the September NASDAQ to ‘Tech Talk’ because of a pending weekly trade recommendation. On 7/5/06, the NASDAQ posted a daily sell signal at 1592.50. On 7/10/06, the NASDAQ posted a weekly sell signal at 1542.00. On 7/12/06, the NASDAQ posted a close below last month’s low of 1530.00. The NASDAQ has an unfilled price gap above the current market price between 1588.00 and 1593.00. Aggressive traders looking to minimize risk were and continue to be advised to use the Mini NASDAQ as their trading vehicle. The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for NASDAQ futures last week decreased by -825, posting a total open interest of 51,193 contracts. The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for Mini NASDAQ futures last week increased by 17,061, posting a total open interest of 342,671 contracts. This product is for very aggressive traders. Very aggressive traders are not to exceed the rule of thumb - 10% of equity to risk ratio. The NASDAQ weekly trade risk was $8,350. The Mini NASDAQ weekly trade risk was $1,670. If you did not fit this risk profile, traders were advised to sit on the sidelines. Below are possible ‘trading modules’ for futures traders to consider next week: # 2) Very aggressive traders who established a short position in the September NASDAQ at 1542.00 are advised to place resting stop orders above 1558.00. # 3) Very aggressive traders who established a short position in the September NASDAQ at 1530.00 are advised to place resting stop orders above 1558.00. # 4) If the September NASDAQ posts multiple closes below 1491.00: Very Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing short position or establish a short position, placing all stops above 1530.00*. Our first objective will be 1452.00. Our long-term objective will be 1403.00. DAILY CHART: ----------------- * (Futures traders and their account executives are advised to discuss this suggested stop). ** (Option traders and their account executives are advised to discuss the suggested risk). *** (Traders can exit or hedge a trade position once it moves in their direction but are advised to remove all resting stop orders).
In the June 25th issue of the Joss Report I began discussing August Gold because of a pending weekly recommendation. Next week I will begin writing several trading modules for December Gold due to the fast approaching first notice day for August Gold (7/31/06). On 6/27/06, August Gold posted a weekly buy signal at 593.60. On 7/14/06, August Gold posted a daily buy signal at 656.60. August Gold has one unfilled price gap above the current market price between 685.50 and 687.00. August Gold has four unfilled price gaps below the current market price. The first is between 656.50 and 662.00. The second unfilled price gap is between 630.00 and 631.80. The third unfilled price gap is between 618.00 and 619.50. The fourth unfilled price gap is between 594.90 and 602.00. This product was and continues to be for very aggressive traders only and not for the faint of heart. Traders were not to exceed the rule of thumb - 10% of equity to risk ratio. The proposed weekly risk for August Gold was $2,590. If you did not fit this risk profile, traders were advised to consult with their account executive for an option trading strategy. The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for futures last week increased by 20,184, posting a total open interest of 312,684 contracts. Below are possible ‘trading modules’ for futures traders to consider next week: # 1) Very aggressive traders who established a long position at 593.60 are advised to either move their stops below 621.90 or exit their positions. Aggressive Option traders who purchased August 610 calls are advised to exit their trade and purchase October 670 calls, risking 70% of purchase price. # 2) Very aggressive traders who established a long position on a close above 616.40 are advised to either move their stops below 621.90 or exit their positions. Aggressive Option traders who purchased August 620 calls are advised to exit their trade and purchase October 670 calls, risking 70% of purchase price. # 3) If August Gold posts multiple closes at or above 656.50: Very aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing all stops below 639.50*. Aggressive Option traders are advised to purchase October 670 calls, risking 70% of purchase price. # 4) If August Gold posts multiple closes above 671.50: Very aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing all stops below 639.50*. Aggressive Option traders are advised to purchase October 700 calls, risking 70% of purchase price. Our first objective will be 687.00. # 5) If August Gold posts a close at or above 702.00: Very aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing long position or establish a long position, placing all stops below 671.50*. Aggressive Option traders are advised to purchase October 720 calls, risking 70% of purchase price. Our next objective will be a challenge of contract highs at 736.00. ----------------- * (Futures traders and their account executives are advised to discuss this suggested stop). ** (Option traders and their account executives are advised to discuss the suggested risk). *** (Traders can exit or hedge a trade position once it moves in their direction but are advised to remove all resting stop orders).
In the Joss Report dated June 25th, I added the September Cocoa to ‘Chart Watch’ because of a weekly recommendation. On 6/26/06, September Cocoa posted a weekly buy signal at 1551. Traders were not to exceed the rule of thumb - 10% of equity to risk ratio. The proposed weekly risk for September Cocoa was $270. If you did not fit this risk profile, traders were advised to consult with their account executive for an option trading strategy. The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for futures last week increased by 28,732, posting a total open interest of 162,683 contracts. WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK? # 1) Aggressive traders who established a long position at 1551 are advised to move stops below 1649* or exit their trade. # 2) Aggressive traders who established a long position at 1650 are advised to move stops below 1649* or exit their trade. Our first objective of 1740 was met on 7/11/06. # 3) If September Cocoa posts multiple closes above 1738: Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing long positions or establish a long position, placing all stops below 1687*. # 4) If September Cocoa posts multiple closes above 1795: Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing long positions or establish a long position, placing all stops below 1687*. # 5) If September Cocoa posts multiple closes above 1850: Aggressive traders are advised to either add to their existing long positions or establish a long position, placing all stops below 1766*. Our second objective will be 2078. DAILY CHART: ----------------- * (Futures traders and their account executives are advised to discuss this suggested stop). ** (Option traders and their account executives are advised to discuss the suggested risk). *** (Traders can exit or hedge a trade position once it moves in their direction but are advised to remove all resting stop orders). CHART WATCH by Scott R. Joss (Non member C.T.A)* Readers and clients call during the week and ask: What are you watching? Watching can mean that the markets are developing a 'recommendation' or a chart pattern that has not yet fully developed - or may never develop. During the course of the week or month it is not uncommon to find an `intra-day, intra-week or intra-month' recommendation that was previously not revealed when this newsletter was written. Products that currently fit into this 'watch' category are listed below and should be 'watched.'
In the Joss Report dated June 25th I added September Wheat to ‘Chart Watch’ because of a potential monthly recommendation developing for July. For July, September Wheat has a monthly recommendation which has not been posted as of Friday’s close. This product is for aggressive traders. Traders are not to exceed the rule of thumb - 10% of equity to risk ratio. The proposed monthly risk for September Wheat is $2,450. If you do not fit this risk profile, traders are advised to consult with their account executive for an option trading strategy. The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for futures last week increased by 9,865, posting a total open interest of 468,830 contracts. WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK? # 1) Next week I will begin developing several trading modules for traders to consider for the following week. However, aggressive traders who want to trade September Wheat are advised to contact their ClearTrade account executive at 1-800-493-4444 to discuss an updated ‘trading module’. DAILY CHART: ----------------- * (Futures traders and their account executives are advised to discuss this suggested stop). ** (Option traders and their account executives are advised to discuss the suggested risk). *** (Traders can exit or hedge a trade position once it moves in their direction but are advised to remove all resting stop orders).
This week I’m adding September Crude Oil to ‘Tech Talk’ because of an ‘intra-week’ buy signal posted on 7/13/06 at 76.70. September Crude Oil has no unfilled price gaps above the current market price. September Crude Oil has two unfilled price gaps below the current market price. The first is between 78.35 and 78.50. The second unfilled price gap is between 76.10 and 77.20. September Crude Oil has a distinct bullish ‘W’ formation, which developed between 5/11/06 and 7/7/06. The middle of the ‘W’ is 74.75. As long a September Crude Oil maintains a close above 74.75, our first objective will be 80.00. Our second objective will be 84.00. This product is for very aggressive traders only and not for the faint of heart. Aggressive traders looking to minimize risk were advised to use the Mini Crude Oil as their trading vehicle. Traders are not to exceed the rule of thumb - 10% of equity to risk ratio. The proposed ‘intra-week’ risk for September Crude Oil was $1,800. The proposed ‘intra-week’ risk for Mini September Crude Oil was $900. If you did not fit this risk profile, traders were advised to consult with their account executive for an option trading strategy. The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for futures last week increased by 22,023, posting a total open interest of 1,013,523 contracts. WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK? # 1) Aggressive traders who want to trade September Crude Oil are advised to contact their ClearTrade account executive at 1-800-493-4444 for an updated ‘trading module’ for next week. DAILY CHART: ----------------- * (Futures traders and their account executives are advised to discuss this suggested stop). ** (Option traders and their account executives are advised to discuss the suggested risk). *** (Traders can exit or hedge a trade position once it moves in their direction but are advised to remove all resting stop orders).
Last week I added September Lumber to ‘Chart Watch’ because of a weekly recommendation. On 7/10/06, September Lumber posted a weekly sell signal at 298.90. On 7/12/06, September Lumber posted a close below the previous month’s low of 295.00. September Lumber has two unfilled price gaps above the current market price. The first unfilled price gap is between 299.60 and 300.00. The second unfilled price gap is between 347.30 and 348.60. This product is for very aggressive traders only and not for the faint of heart. Traders are not to exceed the rule of thumb - 10% of equity to risk ratio. The proposed weekly risk for September Lumber was $1,540. If you do not fit this risk profile, traders are advised to consult with their account executive for an option trading strategy. The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for futures last week increased by 6, posting a total open interest of 5,032 contracts. WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK? # 1) Aggressive traders who want to trade September Lumber are advised to contact their ClearTrade account executive at 1-800-493-4444 for an updated ‘trading module’ for next week. DAILY CHART: ----------------- * (Futures traders and their account executives are advised to discuss this suggested stop). ** (Option traders and their account executives are advised to discuss the suggested risk). *** (Traders can exit or hedge a trade position once it moves in their direction but are advised to remove all resting stop orders).
SEPTEMBER FEEDER CATTLE (FCU6) Last week I added September Feeder Cattle to ‘Chart Watch’ because of a weekly recommendation and a potential monthly recommendation. It appears Feeder Cattle has posted a bearish ‘Island reversal’ top as long as the current unfilled upside gap between 115.25 and 115.70 remains intact. In addition, as long as 117.92 is not penetrated, September Feeder Cattle is developing a potential monthly recommendation for August. If this was the case, our first downside objective will be 113.17. On 7/10/06, September Feeder Cattle posted a weekly sell signal at 114.87. This product is for aggressive traders only and not for the faint of heart. Traders are not to exceed the rule of thumb - 10% of equity to risk ratio. The proposed weekly risk for September Feeder Cattle was $1,400. If you do not fit this risk profile, traders are advised to consult with their account executive for an option trading strategy. The ‘Commitment of Traders’ report - published each Friday by the CFTC - indicated the net change in open interest for futures last week increased by 332, posting a total open interest of 29,898 contracts. WHAT ARE TRADERS ADVISED TO DO NEXT WEEK? # 1) Aggressive traders who want to trade September Feeder Cattle are advised to contact their ClearTrade account executive at 1-800-493-4444 for an updated ‘trading module’ for next week and next month. DAILY CHART: ----------------- * (Futures traders and their account executives are advised to discuss this suggested stop). ** (Option traders and their account executives are advised to discuss the suggested risk). *** (Traders can exit or hedge a trade position once it moves in their direction but are advised to remove all resting stop orders). CURRENT 'MONTHLY' RECOMMENDATIONS FOR JULY: - SEPTEMBER WHEAT Future watch will list developing 'monthly' recommendations to watch in July for August. By listing these products, traders can `feed-forward' with anticipation and focus - centering on products that will provide direction and hopefully, opportunity. Traders should begin studying the 'weekly' and 'monthly' charts for the products listed below. Don't forget between now and the end of the month, some or all of these products may be de-listed. 'Monthly' recommendations will be revealed on the close of business July 31st and sent via email for August.
- S&P 500 MONTHLY CALENDAR
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If you do not completely understand this information, you are advised totake NO action until speaking with your Account Executive. ClearTrade® Inc. may be reached at 800-493-4444 * If the market opens above the buy price shown then place a stop order to sell at the price to enter a short trade. ScottJoss is a 'non member' CTA and is providing the Joss Report trade recommendations and weekly trade advisor to ClearTrade® Inc. clients. Scott Joss 'is a principal' of ClearTrade® Inc. and 'is a registered IB member' with the NFA. NOTE: Past results are no indication of future performance. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of futureconditions are attempted. The contents of the Joss Report weekly trade advisor newsletter and trade recommendations are copyright© 1997 - 2006, Scott R. Joss / S.R. Joss Inc./ClearTrade® Inc. *TM. All Rights Reserved. Calendar provided by Briefing.com, Inc. Data is provided for informational purposes only, and is not intended for trading purposes. Neither ClearTrade, Inc. nor any of its data or content providers (such as Reuters, CSI, and Briefing.com) shall be liable for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. “The organizations and links presented in this newsletter/Joss Report are in no way affiliated with ClearTrade® Inc. or S.R. Joss Inc..ClearTrade® does not necessarily promote or endorse the services orpublications described herein. ClearTrade has no role in the production or review of these products or services and makes no warranty, either expressed or implied, as to their contents, accuracy or performance.” This publication is strictly the opinion of its writer and is intended solely for informative purposes and is not to be construed, under any circumstances, by implication or otherwise, as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or trade in any commodities or securities here in named. Information is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures and options trading involve risk. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. In no event should the content of this market letter be construed as an express or an implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from ClearTrade® that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner what so ever. |
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