Commodity Seasonal Charts - Futures Seasonal Charts

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Seasonality of Futures

Although not 100% accurate-as any weatherman will tell you-weather is, in fact, the chief contributor to seasonal futures trading. The annual cycle from warm to cold weather and then back again affects all the agricultural commodity markets as their supply and demand coincides with the planting and harvesting seasons. However, the annual weather pattern can stretch its power to all the commodities. For example, demand for heating oil typically rises as cold weather approaches but subsides as inventory is filled and decreases even more as the summer months get closer.

These annual cycles in supply and demand give rise to the seasonal price phenomena or what we would simply call seasonality. This annual pattern of changing conditions may cause a more or less well-defined annual pattern of price responses. Seasonality, then, may be defined as a market's natural rhythm-an established tendency for prices to move in the same direction around similar time most years.

Commodity Futures Long-term Seasonal  Charts

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What is 'Seasonality'

Seasonality is a characteristic of a time series in which the data experiences regular and predictable changes that recur every calendar year. Any predictable change or pattern in a time series that recurs or repeats over a one-year period can be said to be seasonal. Seasonal effects are different from cyclical effects, as seasonal cycles are contained within one calendar year, while cyclical effects, such as boosted sales due to low unemployment rates, can span time periods shorter or longer than one calendar year.

BREAKING DOWN 'Seasonality'

Seasonality refers to periodic fluctuations in certain business areas that occur regularly based on a particular season. A season may refer to a time period as denoted by the calendar seasons, such as summer or winter, as well as commercial seasons, such as the holiday season. Companies that understand the seasonality of their business can time inventories, staffing and other decisions to coincide with the expected seasonality of the associated activities.

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SEASONAL TENDENCIES ARE A COMPOSITE OF SOME OF THE MORE CONSISTENT COMMODITY FUTURES SEASONALS THAT HAVE OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 15 YEARS. THERE ARE USUALLY UNDERLYING FUNDAMENTAL CIRCUMSTANCES THAT OCCUR ANNUALLY THAT TEND TO CAUSE THE FUTURES MARKETS TO REACT IN A SIMILAR DIRECTIONAL MANNER DURING A CERTAIN CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE YEAR. EVEN IF A SEASONAL TENDENCY OCCURS IN THE FUTURE, IT MAY NOT RESULT IN A PROFITABLE TRANSACTION AS FEES, AND THE TIMING OF THE ENTRY AND LIQUIDATION MAY IMPACT ON THE RESULTS. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT HAS IN THE PAST OR WILL IN THE FUTURE ACHIEVE PROFITS UTILIZING THESE STRATEGIES. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT PRICE PATTERNS WILL RECUR IN THE FUTURE.

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